【明報專訊】CHINA'S TWO SESSIONS, namely the plenary sessions of the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), will be convened soon. This year marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. Given China's tradition of prioritising politics, there is a necessity to present the nation and the international community with a relatively impressive result. Furthermore, as this year is also of crucial importance to the "14th Five-Year Plan", it can be expected that the government work report submitted by Premier Li Qiang will be focused on economic growth.
The Two Sessions are an occasion when national politics and economy take centre stage. All eyes in the world will be on China's policies in areas such as defence and foreign affairs. As for the public, their main focus will be on economic performance, as planning on the speed of economic growth affects households across the country. The end of the COVID-19 pandemic last year propelled economic growth to 5.2%, which was an impressive achievement by international standards. It will not be easy to make further progress this year.
The pandemic caused a slump in all industries. In response, the central government has adopted comprehensive measures. In the past, investment in infrastructure was restricted to the construction of bridges and roads. It has become more diversified in recent years. Last year, the installed capacity of solar power increased by 55%. This not only relieved the demand for oil imports, but also greatly contributed to the improvement of the atmospheric environment. The development of high-tech industries has created new economic growth points and stretched the consumer market. The sales of new energy vehicles, which jumped by 30% last year, have even become the bright spot for export products.
However, these products, which are sought after all over the world, not only attract envious eyes, but have also become the target of import restrictions. Europe and the UK have proposed additional tariff measures against these products. Last year, the national government's tax cuts contributed to the boom in new energy vehicles. Even if the tax cuts continue this year, the question will be whether the market can absorb the supply. The same problem also exists in the market for personal computers. Last year, sales fell by 17%. The situation for this year is far from promising either. It has become a huge challenge for these saturated industries to ride out such enormous difficulties.
Foreign trade is one of the trio of drivers of the Chinese economy. Last year, the volume of import and export trade increased slightly by 0.6%, almost bordering on negative growth. Even the depreciation of the RMB failed to stimulate exports. While there is growth among the markets of the emerging countries along the Belt and Road, these countries have not been able to compensate for the decline in the traditional export markets, such as the EU and the US.
The worst-case scenario caused by these factors will be further decline this year. As the wars in the two major zones rage on, the European and American markets will remain weak even if their performance exceeds expectations. This will create a knock-on effect. The sluggishness of ASEAN's exports will also lead to less demand for Chinese semi-finished products or electromechanical equipment. Last year, exports drove GDP growth by 0.6%. This might not be repeated this year. For international and domestic businesses, what suggestions the government work report will lay out for promoting foreign trade will be a matter of the utmost importance.
The meetings of the NPC and the CPPCC are attended by thousands of deputies and committee members. The meetings are the focus of public attention across the country. All people are looking forward to an ambitious plan set out in the government work report.
明報社評2024.03.04：國慶75周年經濟規劃關鍵年 經濟增速較高能打響政治牌
全國兩會召開在即，今年適逢新中國國慶75周年，按照國家政治掛帥的傳統，必須對國內和國際交出一個比較亮麗的成績，加上今年是「十四五」規劃關鍵一年，可以預期，李強總理提交的政府工作報告，重點將會投放在經濟增長。
兩會是全國政治經濟集中表現的場所，國防外交等政策全球矚目，民眾的關注則集中在經濟表現，經濟增長速度的部署，影響千家萬戶。去年疫情結束使經濟復蘇，增長速度達到5.2%，擺在全球範圍，也是不俗的成績。今年要百尺竿頭更進一步，難度不小。
疫情造成的百業蕭條，中央政府使出綜合措施，過去投資基建只在修橋起路，近年就更加多元，去年太陽能發電裝機容量增長55%，不但減輕了石油進口的壓力，對改善大氣環境也有很大貢獻。而發展高新科技創造新的經濟增長點，拉動消費市場，去年新能源汽車銷售增長三成，還成為出口產品的一枝獨秀。
然而，這些在全球範圍都能叫響的產品，不但惹來艷羨目光，也成為限制進口的瞄準目標，歐洲、英國都提出加徵關稅措施。去年新能源汽車旺場還有賴國家減稅措施，今年即使繼續減稅，也有市場承受能力問題。同樣的問題也在個人電腦市場，去年銷售數量已經下跌17%，今年銷情也不容樂觀，這些飽和產業如何絕處逢生，成為一大挑戰。
外貿是拉動中國經濟的三駕馬車之一，去年進出口貿易額只微升0.6%，差點成為負增長，即使人民幣貶值也未能起到刺激出口的作用。新興的一帶一路沿線國家市場雖有增長，但不能彌補傳統出口市場歐盟和美國的跌幅。
這些因素最壞打算是今年進一步下滑，兩大地區戰事延綿不絕，歐美市場即使「勝過預期」也會繼續疲軟，而且會造成連帶影響，東盟的出口不振，對中國半成品或者機電設備的需求也會下跌。去年出口拉動國內生產總值增長0.6%，今年未必會繼續有此成績。政府工作報告對促進對外貿易有何高招，是國際和國內商家的頭等大事。
全國人大會議和政協會議，有數千名代表委員與會，也成為全國民眾目光的聚焦點，政府工作報告交出一個「鴻圖大計」，成為大眾期盼。
■/ Glossary 生字 /
centre stage : an important position where somebody/something can easily get people's attention
slump : a period when a country's economy or a business is doing very badly
sought after : wanted by many people, because it is of very good quality or difficult to get or to find