Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) on Wednesday became the fourth GOP senator to announce a retirement ahead of the 2020 election, expanding the Senate map by an additional seat. And for Democrats, every potential pickup counts.
2020 Senate map
Democratic-held
Not up for election
Republican-held
NH
ME
MT
OR
MN
ID
SD
MA
WY
MI
RI
IA
NE
NJ
IL
DE
CO
WV
VA
KS
KY
NC
TN
AZ
OK
AR
NM
SC
GA
AL
MS
LA
TX
AK
Both of Georgia’s
seats are up for
election
50
22
12
35 Dems. not up
31 Reps. not up
Democrats need to gain three seats to control the Senate, if they win the presidency
2020 Senate map
Democratic-held
Republican-held
Not up for election
NH
ME
MT
OR
MN
MA
ID
SD
RI
WY
MI
IA
NJ
NE
IL
DE
CO
WV
VA
KS
KY
NC
TN
AZ
OK
AR
NM
SC
GA
AL
MS
LA
TX
Both of Georgia’s seats are up for election
AK
50
35 Dems. not up
22
31 Reps. not up
12
Democrats need to gain three seats to control the Senate, if they win the presidency
2020 Senate map
Democratic-held
Republican-held
Not up for election
NH
ME
MT
OR
MN
MA
ID
SD
RI
WY
MI
IA
NE
NJ
IL
DE
WV
CO
VA
KS
KY
NC
TN
AZ
OK
AR
NM
SC
GA
AL
MS
LA
TX
AK
Both of Georgia’s seats are up for election
50
35 Dems. not up for election
22
31 Reps. not up for election
12
Democrats need to gain three seats to control the Senate, if they win the presidency
2020 Senate map
Democratic-held
Republican-held
Not up for election
NH
ME
MT
OR
MN
MA
ID
SD
RI
WY
MI
IA
NE
NJ
IL
DE
CO
WV
VA
KS
KY
NC
TN
AZ
OK
AR
NM
SC
GA
AL
MS
LA
TX
AK
Both of Georgia’s seats
are now up for election
50
35 Dems. not up for election
22
31 Reps. not up for election
12
Democrats need to gain three seats to control the Senate, if they win the presidency
Voters gave Democrats control of the House in 2018, a shift of 40 seats, but Republicans gained two Senate seats in a favorable map. The 2020 map looks favorable for Republicans, too. While the party is now defending 22 seats, nearly all represent states that voted for President Trump and Mitt Romney in the past two presidential elections.
There are several Republican senators who are at risk, however, according to Cook Political Report’s ratings. The chart below shows a dot for each Senate seat up for election, positioned according to the states’ presidential voting records, from most Democratic on the left to most Republican on the right. Vertically, senators are positioned according to their ideology, using a score called DW-Nominate. The outliers show which senators’ voting positions least match their state’s ideology.
Senate seats up for election in 2020
Competitive GOP, Dem
Solidly GOP, Dem
How each state voted for President
MORE Democratic
MORE Republican
Gardner
(Colo.)
0.5
McConnell
(Ky.)
More
conservative
Collins
(Maine)
How the
senator
votes
Isakson
(Ga.)
0
Jones (Ala.)
More
Liberal
Smith (Minn.)
-0.5
D+10
EVEN
R+10
R+20
Senate seats up for election in 2020
Competitive GOP, Dem
Solidly GOP, Dem
How each state voted for President
MORE Democratic
MORE Republican
Perdue
(Ga.)
Ernst
(Iowa)
Roberts
(Kan.)
0.5
Gardner (Colo.)
McConnell (Ky.)
More
conservative
Tillis (N.C.)
Hyde-
Smith
(Miss.)
Alexander (Tenn.)
McSally
(Ariz.)
Collins
(Maine)
Isakson
(Ga.)
How the
senator
votes
0
Jones (Ala.)
Peters
(Mich.)
More
Liberal
Smith (Minn.)
-0.5
Udall (N.M.)
D+10
EVEN
R+10
R+20
Senate seats up for election in 2020
Competitive GOP, Dem
Solidly GOP, Dem
How each state voted for President
MORE Democratic
MORE Republican
Perdue
(Ga.)
Ernst
(Iowa)
Roberts
(Kan.)
0.5
Gardner (Colo.)
McConnell (Ky.)
Tillis (N.C.)
More
conservative
Hyde-
Smith
(Miss.)
Alexander (Tenn.)
McSally
(Ariz.)
Collins
(Maine)
Isakson
(Ga.)
How the
senator
votes
0
Jones (Ala.)
Peters
(Mich.)
More
Liberal
Smith (Minn.)
Udall (N.M.)
-0.5
D+10
EVEN
R+10
R+20
Senate seats up for election in 2020
Competitive GOP, Dem
Solidly GOP, Dem
How each state voted for President
MORE Democratic
MORE Republican
Perdue
(Ga.)
Ernst
(Iowa)
Roberts
(Kan.)
0.5
Gardner (Colo.)
McConnell (Ky.)
Tillis (N.C.)
Hyde-
Smith
(Miss.)
More
conservative
Alexander (Tenn.)
McSally
(Ariz.)
Collins
(Maine)
Isakson
(Ga.)
How the
senator
votes
0
Jones (Ala.)
More
Liberal
Peters
(Mich.)
Smith (Minn.)
Udall (N.M.)
-0.5
D+10
EVEN
R+10
R+20
Democrats are aiming to pick up at least three seats, which would be enough to give them control of the Senate if they also win the presidency. Four seats would give them control no matter how that election turns out, meaning they could block GOP legislation and appointments in the case of a second Republican term.
Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) represent states that rejected Trump. Republican seats in Iowa, North Carolina and Arizona will also be targets, and now two seats in Georgia. Republicans have targets of their own. Democratic Sen. Doug Jones (Ala.) is relatively centrist as far as the Senate goes, but he represents a state that heavily supported Trump and will face a tough reelection battle.
[The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2020]
Of course, Senate elections are about more than a state’s voting history, and the importance of individual candidates cannot be overstated.
Georgia could help Democrats win the Senate, but only with the right person running. The state, which will now have two Senate seats on the ballot in 2020, has voted for the Republican in recent presidential contests — including for Trump by five percentage points in 2016. Democrats hope to win here, in part because of how narrowly Democrat Stacey Abrams lost the 2018 governor’s race, but they have struggled to recruit a top-tier candidate. Abrams tweeted a statement Wednesday saying that she “will not be a candidate” in either 2020 Georgia Senate race, instead focusing on her national voter protection efforts.
| State | Incumbent | Filing deadline |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Doug Jones | Nov. 8, 2019 |
| Michigan | Gary Peters | April 21, 2020 |
| Minnesota | Tina Smith | June 2, 2020 |
| New Mexico | OPEN | March 10, 2020 |
| State | Incumbent | Filing deadline |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Martha McSally | April 6, 2020 |
| Colorado | Cory Gardner | March 17, 2020 |
| Georgia | David Perdue | March 6, 2020 |
| Georgia | OPEN | March 6, 2020 |
| Kansas | OPEN | June 1, 2020 |
| Kentucky | Mitch McConnell | Jan. 28, 2020 |
| Iowa | Joni Ernst | March 13, 2020 |
| Maine | Susan Collins | March 16, 2020 |
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | Jan. 10, 2020 |
| North Carolina | Thom Tillis | Dec. 20, 2019 |
| Tennessee | OPEN | April 2, 2020 |
If Democrats win the presidency but lose the Senate, they will face an uphill battle in enacting their policy goals. Even if they win the Senate, though, they’d almost certainly be short of the 60-seat “supermajority” required to override a filibuster and pass key legislation. In response, many 2020 Democratic presidential candidates have proposed eliminating the filibuster. Trump has also called for eliminating the filibuster, but Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has refused.
If that change occurs, the importance of winning — and holding — the Senate will be more important than ever.
