It's not necessarily the allegedly divisive nature of The Last Jedi's plot (which hasn't kept it from making over half a billion dollars worldwide already), but something has caused retail orders to decrease by about 47 per cent from last year. The Hollywood Reporter suggests Toys R Us' filing for bankruptcy may be a factor, though you'd think they'd still invest heavily in Star Wars if it were a surefire sales generator. They also suggest "retailers are trying to gain a sense of 'what the steady state' of Star Wars product is," though looking at the numbers isn't hard: Star Wars toys were the top brand of 2016 with nearly $760 million in sales, and they were also the #1 property in 2015, with similar numbers. This year? Bested by Nerf and Pokemon.
But the reasons The Last Jedi's toys aren't selling quite as well (with some notable exceptions -- Fandango FanShop reports that their #1 bestseller is a plush Porg) might be a lot more straightforward. Let's look at the most obvious factors:
First, there's Rogue One, last year's Star Wars movie, which launched a large range of products...and many of them are still hanging around. Retail buyers aren't necessarily toy collectors or fans who distinguish between individual movies, so if they see Star Wars toys from last year still hanging around on shelves, they won't necessarily be excited to order a lot more.
Granted, for those of us who can distinguish between movies, the Rogue One line had some unique issues: it was a darker Star Wars film that killed off all its heroes and might not have been as parentally approved as prior installments, the toys tried to incorporate Nerf elements in awkward ways, the incredibly cool but too-expensive app-controlled AT-ACT walker was clearanced immediately after Christmas, and the collector-skewing Black Series figures had issues with materials that made the actor likenesses softer and less on-point than usual. The AT-ACT, which originally retailed for $300, can now be found at Ross stores for $89.99. It's well worth it at that price, but the closeout hardly encourages Hasbro to make toys of the Gorilla Walkers from the new movie, even if they could re-use the same electronics.
Hasbro's quality control has gotten better for The Last Jedi toys, though they're saddled with an interactive sound element called Force Link that's difficult to control. I was sent a sample, and could never make it work consistently, though it scares my wife by turning on and off at odd times. That said, the quality of the toys is not the issue. They're well-sculpted and sturdy, and look like the actors.
But the movie doesn't give them much to work with. While The Empire Strikes Back persuaded kids to re-buy all their favorite characters in snow gear and alternate Cloud City costumes, The Last Jedi mostly keeps its core group in the same or similar duds. The most notable exception, Rey, is one of the few figures that's hard to find. Likewise, there are few new characters to get kids really excited. Benicio Del Toro and Laura Dern's new additions are fairly subdued: only Rose and the Praetorian Guard offer visually novel and narratively dynamic additions. (Also arguably Snoke, but we'll get to him.) When it comes to vehicles, the best new reveals are too massive to sell as figure-compatible toys: the Dreadnought, Snoke's Star Destroyer, the Resistance bombers, and the Gorilla Walker will all get their LEGO due, but for action figures? Not so feasible. When it comes to vehicles that are feasible, Kylo Ren's TIE Silencer is indeed cool, but the main new good-guy fighter, the Ski Speeder, is specifically called out in the movie as junk, and in the story -- SPOILER alert -- all of them crash or blow up. That's not necessarily appealing to a kid.
The final problem isn't a new one for Disney and Hasbro, but in a movie with fewer new possible toys, it hurts the line more this year: spoiler sensitivity. It seems quaint to think that when Return of the Jedi came out, toys of almost every character were available right away, with the Ewoks strategically blacked out on card backs to keep them a surprise. Nowadays, spoiler-culture is such that Disney won't even let the Hasbro team see everything, or potentially reveal any plot point: for The Force Awakens, this meant a strategy of misdirecting consumers into believing Finn would be the next Jedi hero rather than Rey, and not showing the toy people Supreme Leader Snoke or Luke Skywalker's new look.
Knowing Snoke would be revealed this movie, Hasbro bet large on the First Order's leader. The big-ticket item in the 3-3/4 inch figure line is a BB-8 droid that opens up to transform into the interior of Snoke's Star Destroyer (with Snoke figure included); the equivalent for the 6-inch collector's line was a Gamestop-exclusive figure of Snoke on his throne. And then, not to spoil the movie, but...he's not as much of a factor as was perhaps expected, and his function in the plot isn't necessarily one that makes fans want to go out and spend extra money on him. Meanwhile, had Hasbro known Adam Driver would get a shirtless scene, that's one Kylo Ren variant that might have sold quite well out the gate. And another character who makes a surprise appearance may beget some special toys later down the road.
Hasbro did not respond to a request for comment as of publication time; their PR agency is currently on holiday break. But they're probably not doing too badly with the #2 and #3 toys of the year, and Star Wars may get a market injection sooner than usual: as of now, toys based on the Han Solo prequel movie are set to hit stores on April 20th.
