Republican primaries poll tracker: can anyone beat Donald Trump? | The Economist

Republican primaries 2024

Who will be the next Republican nominee?

Last updated on February 1st 2024

Latest polling averages, %

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Polling of likely or potential Republican voters
The Republican Party will confirm its nominee for the 2024 presidential election at its convention in July. The outcome looks almost certain: Donald Trump, a former president and populist firebrand, has a firm grip on the party and is far ahead in polls. That may yet change. Although the odds of another contender stealing his crown are poor, many have tried (some perhaps in the hope of a consolation prize such as a plum job in a second Trump administration). Only one, Nikki Haley, remains. Mr Trump is facing several criminal cases. So far, they do not appear to be hindering Mr Trump. But a presidential nomination is not won until it is won.
The Economist is tracking the contest. Here you will find our aggregate of the latest polls, as well as short guides to each candidate and key dates in the contest. See more coverage on our 2024 US election hub, and follow the contests elsewhere with our Indonesia and UK election poll trackers.

Voting intention, %

What happens if Donald Trump drops out?

The former president faces the prospect of four criminal trials on felony charges, which will overlap with the Republican primary season and the general-election campaign. None is likely to conclude before the primaries are over, and even if he is convicted, he is unlikely to be jailed before the election or barred from running, although some legal challenges are ongoing. But regular court dates will eat into his campaign schedule, and the trials may sour Republican voters on him (though his previous court appearances have only rallied his base). Were Mr Trump to withdraw, who would be most likely to win? The polls below show what the contest might look like without him, taking into account the second preferences of Mr Trump’s supporters.

Key dates in 2024

The nominee will be crowned with much fanfare on stage at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, which begins on July 15th 2024. But the nominee will probably be confirmed before then. Voting begins with the Iowa caucuses in January.

Jan 15th
Iowa caucuses
Traditionally the first nomination contest, the Iowa caucuses are an odd and complex affair. Many candidates focus heavily on Iowa or New Hampshire, hoping for an early splash in a small pond.
Jan 23rd
New Hampshire primary
New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary, together with the Iowa caucuses, tend to winnow the field. If a candidate cannot make a mark in one of these states, they are unlikely to do so elsewhere.
Mar 4th
Trump federal trial begins
Potentially the most serious of the criminal cases against Mr Trump, on March 4th he will face prosecutors’ charges that he attempted to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.
Mar 5th
Super Tuesday
The biggest single day of the nomination contest, with more than a dozen states including California and Texas going to the polls. If Mr Trump still has a strong lead, the contest will be all but over.
Jul 15th
Republican National Convention
Typically a four-day pageant for the party’s chosen nominee, the convention is where the party formally selects a presidential and vice-presidential candidate.

The key candidates

Donald Trump

Former president

Donald Trump’s extraordinary campaign follows his extraordinary term as America’s 45th president, which concluded when his supporters staged an armed attack on the Capitol. His exact role in instigating the attack and a broader effort to overturn results of the 2020 election, which he lost, resulted in two criminal indictments. He faces two others, totalling 91 felonies. The 77-year-old former businessman denies all wrongdoing. Mr Trump’s campaign pairs familiar culture-war issues (building a wall, “left-wing gender insanity”) with fresh grievances (against the lawyers prosecuting his cases and the judges overseeing them). He holds a commanding lead in the Republican race.

Nikki Haley

Former governor of South Carolina

Nikki Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants, worked at her parents’ upmarket fashion boutique before running for state office. She became the first woman governor of South Carolina, her home state. She served as Mr Trump’s ambassador to the UN, but, given her appeal among relatively moderate and well-educated Republicans, has since become a favourite of Mr Trump’s detractors. On the trail she has criticised his chaotic leadership style, his comments on Israel (as too harsh) and China (not harsh enough), and more obliquely, his age. The 51-year-old insists America deserves “a new generation of leadership”.

Sources: FiveThirtyEight; National polls; YouGov; The Economist

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