Who will replace Putin?

MOSCOW — The race to become the next Russian president has already begun.

The constitutional changes Vladimir Putin announced earlier this month raised more questions than they answered, but they suggest he will have to choose someone to replace him when his term in the presidency ends in 2024.

The proposed overhaul, now making its way through the Kremlin-loyal parliament, will bar Putin from remaining in power after 2024 and close the loophole that allowed him to return to the presidency after a brief stint as prime minister from 2008 to 2012.

But it has also been designed to make sure that, while Putin may one day go, Putinism will stay.

Putin is widely expected to take up the position of chairman of the state council — a presidential advisory board that will be enshrined in the constitution and endowed with ill-defined powers to “determine the main directions of domestic, foreign and socio-economic policy.” That would allow him to to keep a finger on the wheel of state while stepping back from the daily driving.

“The selection of people is already defined … These people are now in key positions” — Olga Kryshtanovskaya, sociologist

Given that such a move would leave him with few official powers, Putin is likely to choose a loyal successor to ensure the country stays the course he charted, analysts say. The shake-up is aimed at preserving his legacy in a country where new leaders have typically rejected the ideology of their predecessors: Khrushchev dismantled the Stalin cult, Yeltsin dissolved the country that Gorbachev tried to preserve, and Putin himself gradually reversed Yeltsin’s pro-Western, reformist course.

Guessing at who Putin will choose to elevate is fraught with uncertainty. The 67-year-old Russian leader is known for keeping his options open and leaving decisions until the last minute. He will be looking for someone strong enough to keep tight control of the world’s biggest country, but loyal enough to ensure his security and that of his allies.

Privately, the Russian leader has almost certainly narrowed down his choices, said Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a sociologist who has been studying the Russian elite for decades. “The selection of people is already defined … These people are now in key positions.”

Here’s who Putin may be considering as a successor.

Mikhail Mishustin

The appointment of Mikhail Mishustin as prime minister last week caught Russia by surprise and catapulted the well-respected but little-known head of the tax service into the successor discussion, even if his starting position is a weak one.

Mishustin, known for digitizing the tax system, sits on the boards of the CSKA Moscow hockey team and the national federation of hockey, a sport that has become a kind of networking tool for Russia’s rich and powerful, much like golf is in the United States. He’s gotten to know Putin personally while playing with him in the Night Hockey League of top officials and businessmen.

At age 53, Mishustin is in the prime of his career. He’s also well placed to bridge the gap between the heads of Russia’s powerful security agencies (known as siloviki) and its horde of bureaucrats, since the tax agency is involved in both paperwork and enforcing regulations, said analyst Alexander Baunov. As an “intelligent silovik in civilian clothing,” Baunov added, Mishustin resembles Putin himself.

The challenge for Mishustin is that the prime minister has historically been a lightning rod for criticism, both from ambitious members of the ruling party as well as a population that has seen its income slide and corruption continue to flourish. Mishutin’s predecessor, Dmitry Medvedev, saw his approval rating fall from 64 percent to 37 percent during his eight years at the head of the government.

Mikhail Mishustin, the new prime minister of Russia | Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images

Still, some have argued that Mishustin is merely a “technical” prime minister and that Medvedev, who has been given a newly created position as Putin’s deputy on the security council, could return to the presidency in a repeat of 2008.

Mishustin’s main task will be to fulfill Putin’s recent promises to improve living standards. His success at this will shape his chances of becoming president.

Sergei Sobyanin

The government appointed by Putin last week includes four deputy prime ministers seen as Mishustin’s people in what appeared to be a vote of confidence from the president. What caught analysts’ eye is that the other five are connected to Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, which suggests that the 61-year-old is also a candidate for the role of Putin’s successor.

The former governor of the Tyumen province has long been viewed as one of the most influential men in the country. Though technically only a mayor, he is considered a politician of national standing and was head of Putin’s administration from 2005 to 2008, after which he followed his patron into the government, becoming a deputy prime minister.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin is one of Russia’s most influential men | Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images

Moscow’s budget far exceeds that of any other region, and Sobyanin has overseen a massive reconstruction program to turn it into a modern European city. Sobyanin has maintained a reputation as an effective mayor, even as he has fended off a protest movement this summer and a surprisingly difficult election challenge by opposition leader Alexei Navalny in 2013.

“The Moscow mayor is beloved in the regions even more than in Moscow itself,” wrote Andrei Pertsev, a columnist for Moscow Carnegie Center. “It wouldn’t be hard to come up with a slogan like ‘All of Russia will be like Moscow,’ and many would believe it.”

As the “first Putin technocrat” and a longtime loyalist, Sobyanin will likely be high on Putin’s list. His ascension would however leave the Russian leader with the problem of installing a new pro-Kremlin mayor in the increasingly restive capital, where the barring of opposition candidates from city council sparked massive protests this summer.

Sergei Shoigu

The only political figure nearly as popular as Putin is the 64-year-old defense minister, whom Russians have ranked as the country’s greatest military leader after World War II General Georgy Zhukov.

Shoigu rose from lowly beginnings as a construction engineer in the far-flung Tuva region to become a Communist Party functionary and deputy head of the national construction committee. After the collapse of the USSR, he took a lead role in keeping rebellious regions in Moscow’s orbit during several conflicts in the Caucasus.

Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, is close to Putin | Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images

He won the love of the country by swooping in to deal with various natural disasters as emergencies minister from 1994 to 2012, then briefly served as governor of the Moscow region. He took over the defense ministry in 2012, overseeing the overhaul and modernization of Russia’s vast military.

Shoigu is close to Putin and regularly spends summer vacations with the president in Tuva, where the two men have been seen fishing and boating with their shirts off.

Ironically, Shoigu’s popularity, influence and power could work against him, as there is little to guarantee his continued loyalty to Putin. He is also only three years younger than the president and made his name long before Putin came to power.

“He’s too independent if you put him in the highest position,” Stanovaya said. “He’s not obligated enough to Putin for his career.”

The bureaucrats

The flurry of new government appointments has widened the field of possible successors to Putin, should he choose to pluck someone from those ranks, much as Yeltsin did when he named Putin as a presidential staffer, then as head of the FSB and then as his prime minister and heir, all in the space of months.

Kremlin functionary Andrei Belousov, 60, is considered one possible successor after he was appointed last week as first deputy prime minister, the same position from which Medvedev was picked to be president.

The son of an eminent Soviet economist, Belousov was appointed as Putin’s economic aide in 2013 and became chairman of the board of state oil champion Rosneft. He shares Putin’s KGB-esque worldview, believing Russia is surrounded by a “ring of enemies,” according to reports.

In 2016, Putin began appointing his former bodyguards as regional governors, leading to persistent speculation that he was grooming them as potential successors.

Another contender is Dmitry Kozak, 61, the deputy prime minister who was in charge of the construction ahead of the Sochi Olympics, estimated to cost $50 billion. Reports last week suggested he will take the lead in overseeing the Russia-backed breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine.

Similarly, Marat Khusnullin, 53, another new deputy minister, has already been making noise by calling to expand Moscow’s “renovation” program, moving people from smaller Soviet buildings into new high-rises to all of Russia.

A dark horse candidate could be Vladimir Medinsky, 49, the ultraconservative former culture minister who has now become Putin’s aide on culture. Another is Igor Krasnov, 44, an investigator on top cases whose star is rising after he was bumped way up the ladder to replace a longtime Putin ally as prosecutor general.

The bodyguards

In 2016, Putin began appointing his former bodyguards as regional governors, leading to persistent speculation that he was grooming them as potential successors.

Tula Governor Alexei Dyumin guarded Yeltsin and Putin, before he was promoted to deputy head of Russia’s powerful GRU military intelligence agency, where he reportedly played a key role in the annexation of Crimea.

Another possibility, Dmitry Mironov, briefly served in the KGB before entering the secret service in 1991. Starting in 2013, he occupied high-level positions in the interior ministry before being named governor of Yaroslavl.

Two others, Sergei Morozov and Yevgeny Zinichev, both of whom also served in the federal guard service, were appointed governors of Astrakhan and Kaliningrad.

Putin clearly thinks highly of these bodyguards, and they could certainly be considered among the most loyal of the potential successors. All are under the age of 53. But their transition to civilian administration can hardly be called a success, making them long shots to replace Putin. Morozov and Zinichev both resigned after a few months. (Zinichev is now emergencies minister.) According to reports, Mironov barely ever travels to the region he governs and has handed off most responsibilities to an aide.

* * *

As the succession battle develops, Putin is likely to keep his cards close to his chest.

If any favorite becomes apparent too early, it could cause infighting among the myriad clans of power. Some have even speculated he may step down even before 2024 so as to take the political establishment by surprise.

For ordinary Russians, however, the outcome of the race is not expected to mean much.

All of those in the running are sure to keep a strong grip on politics and the economy, as virtually no liberals or Kremlin critics are left in government and the constitutional changes will stipulate that any president must have lived in Russia for 25 years and cannot have held a foreign passport or residency permit. That rules out opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who studied at Yale in 2010.

“Putinism is now the mainstream … [and] has the support of the population,” said Tatyana Stanovaya, an analyst with R.Politik and Carnegie Center Moscow.

In orchestrating his handover, Putin’s objective is straightforward, said Baunov: “The Russia he created should remain his Russia.”

Also On POLITICO

How Putin plans to stay on

By Alec Luhn

Letter from Moscow

Putin’s Russia, 20 years on

By Marc Bennetts