Ukraine Bits: No Ammo, More Casualties, Thin Lines, Propaganda And Passing The Buck
The real state of the war in Ukraine, which I had described some two months ago, has now reached the main stream media. The Zelensky regime in Ukraine is using it to beg the 'west' for more guns and ammunition.
- Ukraine's At Risk of Losing War With Russia: Military Official - Newsweek
- Shortage of Artillery Ammunition Saps Ukrainian Frontline Morale - New York Times
- We’re almost out of ammunition and relying on western arms, says Ukraine - Guardian
- Ukraine is running out of ammunition as prospects dim on the battlefield - Washington Post
- and many others ...
From the last link:
[T]he odds against the Ukrainians are starting to look overwhelming, said Danylyuk, the government adviser.“The Russians are using long-range artillery against us, often without any response, because we don’t have the means,” he said. “They can attack from dozens of kilometers away and we can’t fire back. We know all the coordinates for all their important targets, but we don’t have the means to attack.”
Ukraine has now almost completely run out of ammunition for the Soviet-era weapons systems that were the mainstay of its arsenal, and the Eastern European countries that maintained the same systems have run out of surplus supplies to donate, Danylyuk said. Ukraine urgently needs to shift to longer-range and more sophisticated Western systems, but those have only recently been committed, and in insufficient quantities to match Russia’s immense firepower, he said.
Russia is firing as many as 50,000 artillery rounds a day into Ukrainian positions, and the Ukrainians can only hit back with around 5,000 to 6,000 rounds a day, he said. The United States has committed to deliver 220,000 rounds of ammunition — enough to match Russian firepower for around four days.
The Independent claims to have seen an intelligence report that showed even worse numbers:
Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline.
A report by Ukrainian and Western intelligence officials also reveals that the Ukrainians are facing huge difficulties responding to Russians shelling with their artillery restricted to a range of 25 kilometres, while the enemy can strike from 12 times that distance.
For the first time since the war began, there is now concern over desertion. The report, seen by The Independent, says the worsening situation in the Donbas, with up to a hundred soldiers being killed a day, is having “a seriously demoralising effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week”.
This was easily foreseeable. As I wrote in mid April:
Without fuel the Ukrainian army can not move and without constant supply, especially of large amounts of artillery munitions, it can not counter Russian artillery which will be in heavy use against it.
This pictures of a former Ukrainian position show the devastating result of such a situation.
biggerNearly all of the Ukrainian ammunition and fuel supplies have been bombed and destroyed. What is trickling in through its western borders has difficulties to reach the eastern front and is anyway not enough to supply an actively fighting and maneuvering army.
To match Russia's 50,000 rounds per day, with each round weighing 50 kilograms, some 2,500 metric tons of ammunition would have to be moved per day from Ukraine's western border to the east. After reaching some railhead in the east they would have to be loaded on some 350 trucks to be distributed while being under fire from long ranging Russian weapons. This would have to happen each and every day.
The U.S. has large depots of ammunition but even those would be emptied within a few month if no large scale production of new rounds would be happening. Munition production is usually done only on a small but steady scale of a few hundred rounds per week. The west would have to scale up production to allow for the supply Ukraine would need to match Russia.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense Ukraine's artillery has lost 506 multiple launch rocket systems and 1,859 field artillery and mortars since the beginning of the war. The daily reported number of pieces hit have changed over time from 50+ per day to now single digits.
The total numbers in the Russia report are too high (as they usually are in similar 'western' reports). They amount to more than what the Ukraine had at the start of the war. But we can safely guess that more than 90% of Ukraine's guns and missile systems have been destroyed. Meanwhile the 'west' has promised the Ukraine some 200 gun and some 50 missile systems. Half of those are former soviet types. The other half are newer and need 'western' ammunition. They seem to arrive only in trickles.
The U.S. has send some 100 M-777 lightweight howitzers. Only a few have been seen at the front in the east and some were already destroyed there. Others are used to fire on non-military targets in Donetsk city. We can guess where the rest is. The M-777 is lightweight (4.2 metric tons) because it is largely made from titanium which has a ten times higher scrap value than steel. Some entrepreneurs in Ukraine's west seem to have found that recycling the guns (or selling them elsewhere) is of more value than sending them to the east where they would surely be destroyed within a few days.
Ten days ago the Ukrainian comedian and president Zelensky had admitted that some 60 to 100 Ukrainian soldiers are getting killed per day. That number was highly qualified and an advisor to Zelensky has now doubled it:
A senior Ukrainian presidential aide has told the BBC that between 100 and 200 Ukrainian troops are being killed on the front line every day.
Mykhaylo Podolyak said Ukraine needed hundreds of Western artillery systems to level the playing field with Russia in the eastern Donbas region.
The real numbers are certainly higher than anything the Zelensky regime will ever admit. In a World War I like artillery dominated conflict (but without gas attacks) the number of wounded to dead is historically some 4 to 1 with one of the wounded additionally dying later from his wounds. This historic 'sanitation deaths' rate of wounded later dying from their wounds has since been halved by the use of antibiotics. But in Ukraine it may well be higher than usual in modern wars as its medical infrastructure is in a quite bad shape and as many medical personnel have fled the country.
So lets assume that the real numbers are some 300 dead per day plus 1,200 wounded. An eighth of the wounded, 150 men, will later die from their wounds. This casualty rate has been the same each and every day since early April when Zelensky rejected further negotiations and the war entered its attrition phase. It means that over the last two months the Ukrainian army lost more than 18,000 men with an additional 70,000 wounded. Some of whom will also have died by now while others will have fully recovered. The Ukrainian army started out with some 200,000 soldiers. Later some 30 to 100,000 men of the territorial defense forces were called up and send to the frontline. There were reports that some of these untrained units have had casualty rates of 65%.
No army can use all of its men on the front line. There are always a lot of logistic and support troop needed.
The tooth to tail ratio (T3R) in a military can be between 1 to 10 up to 1 to 2.5. The Ukrainian frontline will probably be held by some 20% of the Ukrainian army (200,000 minus dead and wounded plus territorial forces and a 1 to 4 T3R). That makes some 40,000 men over a current frontline length of some 1,000 kilometer. Those are 40 men per kilometer or 64 per mile. That is a quite thin force. It will not take many more weeks until that line breaks decisively.
Zelensky could shorten the contact line by half and double its defense power if he were willing to allow a retreat to the Dnieper line. But he has so far rejected any request for retreat. That seals the fate of his army.
I have written earlier about the effects of artillery fire on the morale of an army:
Morale can not replace firepower. Morale gets destroyed when soldiers come under concentrated artillery fire. Russia has plenty of the later.
The Independent report quoted above speaks of ever growing desertion numbers. They are still only a trickle but will become a flood as soon as the frontline breaks down. I now expect that to happen at the end of this month.
While the soldiers die by the hundreds per day Ukrainian officials continue with their propaganda gimmicks (machine translation):
Ukrainians on social media were outraged by an event organized by the Kyiv School of Economics and its president Tymofiy Milovanov in the United States.Participants are invited to "immerse" themselves in the atmosphere of war, in particular, to visit the filtration area and dinner in the style of a bomb shelter.
Milovanov himself announced the event, which will take place on June 25 in New York at the Harvard Club.
"This event will change you. Your priorities in life will change. You will understand and accept the responsibility of the whole world as your own, to win this war and stop Russia.
There will be a filtration zone, a bomb-style dinner, and an immersion in the experience of war and war crimes," he said.
A 'filtration zone' is where prisoners of war will be interviewed and sorted before they are moved to prison camps. The Ukraine army has used such zones to torture prisoners.
Two days ago I noted that the blame game for the loss of the war has begun. Zelensky will be the one to whom the buck will be passed to. President Biden has now joined in this:
President Joe Biden, speaking to donors at a Democratic fundraiser here, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “didn’t want to hear it” when U.S. intelligence gathered information that Russia was preparing to invade.The remarks came as Biden was talking about his work to rally and solidify support for Ukraine as the war continues into its fourth month.
“Nothing like this has happened since World War II. I know a lot of people thought I was maybe exaggerating. But I knew we had data to sustain he” — meaning Russian President Vladimir Putin — “was going to go in, off the border.”
“There was no doubt,” Biden said. “And Zelenskyy didn’t want to hear it.”
Although Zelenskyy has inspired people with his leadership during the war, his preparation for the invasion — or lack thereof — has remained a controversial issue.
"Zelensky did not listen to us and he didn't inform us how bad the war was going," will become the standard line as soon as the Ukrainian army is on the run.
Posted by b on June 11, 2022 at 17:35 UTC | Permalink
« previous pageFrance: We are not willing to make concessions to Russia
France is not willing to make concessions to Russia. France wants Ukraine to win the war and regain territorial integrity, said a French official from the Elysee Palace, trying to allay concerns about Paris' stance on the war in Ukraine.
Dreaming of its former colonial times...
Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 9:59 utc | 202
"Why should France&Germany care about "Western alliance"? It doesn't exist. (...) France & Germany (...) have a life/death need for resuming normal relation. (...) The life/death need for oil & gaz. The unbearable economic cost of sanctions."
Posted by: Parisian Guy | Jun 11 2022 23:57 utc | 123
To Pagan and Parisian Guy: I don't understand your dispute.
"Western alliance" exists AS FAR AS with France and Germany rely on the US power and in some way are parasites of the empire. They know very well why they obey the orders of the Empire: the have been profiting from it for decades.
Now the Empire demands self-destruction for its own benefit, and the question is on the table. It is on the table for the first time. It is so much on the table nobody dares to talk about it. It is the White Elefant in the room nobody sees. But I don't dare to make a forecast how this will work out. The US controlled media is not the problem. If the german elites decide against the US, those press morons will change side immediately.
The problem is that leaving the US-patronage and dominance equals a declaration of war toward the US. Nothing less. Germany is the 5x. state of the US. All these "There is no western alliance"-barlies should not forget about this.
Posted by: njet | Jun 12 2022 10:03 utc | 203
Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 9:39 utc | 200
Comments on Doctorow.?
His background, education, expertise.?
I’ll leave it to Andrei Martyanov. None do it better.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 12 2022 10:06 utc | 204
I find the arguments for Russia "hurrying up and finishing" the fighting slightly daft.
Why in Gods name should they? The current economic situation is one in which Russia is currently re-capitalisng it's entire economic base at a higher value. And that's being paid for by the Euro-nutjobs in the main.
Given the sheer scale of the wealth currently flowing into Russian coffers, why the Fuk should Putin do anything other than sit back and watch the magic happen, is completely beyond me.
BTW: it strikes me that some of you folk appear to think that the dollars/euros that Russia makes selling oil and gas is the "profit" that they're making.
Every single euro/dollar that current oil prices bring Russia is entirely irrelevant!!
Look put it this way: When Putin insists that Euro's be paid to Gazprom bank which are then converted to Rubles on the Moscow stock exchange, some of you folk think this just means that the Russian's still receive euro's. Yes, but is that why the Europeans are screeching in hysterical fear and refusing?
Don't you get it? That process means that the euro's value is subsidiary to the Ruble. In other words, the euro's value now depends on whatever Russia now decides it's worth -- or no oil and gas!!! That's the reason for the hysteria. And why the Euro's are so desperate to cut the energy dependency on the Russian's.
The European's choice is to use more expensive energy sources and destroy their economy or hand over the valuation of their multi-decade long project to the Russians.
Imagine if you went to Wal-Mart and the manager there informed you that since you buy stuff from Wal-Mart cheaply, the value ofeverything you currently own will now be decided by Wal-Mart. Note, they're not taking your house or job or wife. They're just goin gto decide what you're worth. Just like that!
Do any of you who are perpetually mystified by the Euro's anti-Russian hate start to understand things now? They have good reason.
A similar dynamic, but non-hostile, works when Russia trades with other countries in their own currencies -- it essentially sets up the Ruble to be valued as a proto reserve currency. If Russia and India trade in Ruble-Ruppees and Russia and China trade in Ruble-Yuan it means China and India, if they don't have a Yuan-Rupee equivalent, then India can by Chinese products in Rubles and China can buy Indian stuff in Rubles as well. Meaning the Ruble just became a reserve currency.
It gives the Russians the exorbitant privilege -- they can print Rubles within reason -- without the exorbitant cost -- they don't have to run trade deficits -- of a reserve currency!!!
Think of the world deciding to make the Swiss currency the worlds reserve currency. The Swiss economy is to small to threaten anyone even if the world did use their currency as a reserve currency they simply couldn't behave the way a large economy would.
This hasn't taken of as fast because I suspect that the Chinese and Indians have reservations about this for obvious reasons. Russia is not the US but it sure ain't Switzerland either.
But for the interim period that we're currently in, a Russia squeezed out of the west, and therefore not a threat to the Rest of the World, but with enough power to stand upto the West, and enough commodities to supply the Rest of the World - make as good, if not better, provider of Reserve value (if not currency).
From this point of view, there are simply no reasons for Russia to hurry up in the Ukrainian battles. In fact it benefits mightly not doing so. As long as Russian casulties lie with the Russian populations acceptance bounds, this will continue.
The bullshit "Nato will intervene" crap is just that -- bullshit. 6000 nukes says that Russia doesn't need to give a flying fuk about the west. And it certainly appears that it isn't.
Posted by: KyleKoffler | Jun 12 2022 10:06 utc | 205
"Gilbert Doctorow is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College (1967), a past Fulbright scholar, and holder of a Ph.D. with honors in history from Columbia University (1975). After completing his studies, Mr. Doctorow pursued a business career focused on the USSR and Eastern Europe. For twenty-five years he worked for US and European multinationals in marketing and general management with regional responsibility. Doctorow is an American citizen and a long-time resident of Brussels, Belgium.
Any comments needed?"
Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 9:39 utc | 200
Yes. Despite this bleak résumé, he is a respectable author.
Posted by: njet | Jun 12 2022 10:11 utc | 206
ostro | Jun 12 2022 9:59 utc | 202
"France wants Ukraine to win the war and regain territorial integrity", said a French official from the Elysee Palace, trying to allay concerns about Paris' stance on the war in Ukraine."
Dreaming of its former colonial times...
Indeed, France launched its attempted intervention in the civil war right there in the Crimea.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jun 12 2022 10:19 utc | 207
njet | Jun 12 2022 10:03 utc | 203
"Now the Empire demands self-destruction for its own benefit, and the question is on the table."
It's like how during the Crusades the head of the Assassin cult supposedly could order his followers to jump off a cliff and they unquestioningly would do it.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jun 12 2022 10:22 utc | 208
Posted by: KyleKoffler | Jun 12 2022 10:06 utc | 205
Excellent comment Kyle. Just two minor reservations.
First, the Europeans will not pay in Euros, they will pay in Roubles.
The mechanics are that they run TWO parallel accounts with Gazprombank.
They pay Euros into one of those accounts.
Gazprombank then converts the Euros to Roubles and deposits same into the second account.
Yes, Russia controls the exchange rate.
Upon instruction, Gazprombank then pays for the energy with those Roubles.
Thus, at no point is Russia holding Euros.
Second, it is an exaggeration to talk about the Rouble as a reserve currency, at least in the short to medium term (imo).
First, it will become a fully tradable currency (which is what we are seeing right now)
Posted by: John Cleary | Jun 12 2022 10:23 utc | 209
I wonder how much resources are being diverted to area of Odessa in preparation for potential offensive in that direction.
Posted by: jared | Jun 12 2022 5:19 utc | 175
And how much Western (UK orchestrated?) weapons and “advisors” are being crammed into Odessa. Those Harpoon missiles - plural - have to be somewhere near the coast.
Even with everything that’s happened so far during the SMO, the Moskva sinking still stand out.
If we assume it was the victim of an attack (some don’t), we can conclude that someone wants Odessa very much.
With it, the “West” keeps Transnistria behind their own lines and prevents an RF-friendly land bridge from Eurasia to Western Europe. Ukraine retains its status as the cork holding the EU in a bottle. Rentier turnstiles on all transiting goods and services, for the enrichment of Kiev’s embezzler-pimp filthsters. Hurrah!
Without Odessa, landlocked Rumpkrainia becomes the absolute and irrelevant butthole of Europe, a festering, borscht riddled, degenerate cesspit with no seaport. RF-friendly road, rail and pipelines from Lisbon to Vladivostok. No more NAZO face eaters with their tired line of nice-enclave-you’ve-got-there-be-a-shame ..... the loss of Odessa would leave almost no follow-on plays beyond white trash jihadi’esq terrorism. Boo!
My money is on serious fireworks in and around Odessa before this is all over.
We might even get to see a NATO member stomped out like a cigarette end.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 12 2022 10:25 utc | 210
Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 0:57 utc | 138
"The reason Russia isn't moving heaven and earth to stop the shelling in Donetsk is that..."
Good to see an intelligent post, this seems the likely answer. The theory that they allow it to garner sympathy is rather amazing gymnastics in convoluted logic. Not entirely atypical though.
Posted by: Organic | Jun 12 2022 10:25 utc | 211
"Every single euro/dollar that current oil prices bring Russia is entirely irrelevant!!"
Posted by: KyleKoffler | Jun 12 2022 10:06 utc | 205
I understand what you mean. I also wonder about the Russian dollar income, eg by selling oil to the US or fertilizers to whom ever.
Russia wouldn't do that if the dollars would all be worthless, right? Of course Russia is NOT completely separated from the international markets.
So there must be some banks, swift-accounts and transfers of dollars abroad for RF-payments left, that work. But I have no idea how that works. Must ask this banksters.
Next question: how much of RF esports is still payed in € or $, and how much in Rubles or even Yuan? Can we watch a development?
May be this has been discussed here already, can't read all these threads. Not every day sunday, not every sunday relaxed like this one.
PS:
Please, Kyle, stop posting more then one exclamation mark. Cheers!
Posted by: njet | Jun 12 2022 10:26 utc | 212
Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 0:57 utc | 138
"The reason Russia isn't moving heaven and earth to stop the shelling in Donetsk is that..."
The reason Ukraine is shelling Donetsk is because they hope Russia will retaliate by killing civilians in Kiev or Odessa. Ukrainians can then cry for help in Brussel and Washington DC and ask for nukes and WW3.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 12 2022 10:35 utc | 213
@njet212
Yes, there is.
https://www.lauriemeadows.info/conflict_security/Beware-the-Ides-of-March.html
Scroll a long way down to the 'ruble natural gas gold connection' heading
Posted by: Powerandpeople | Jun 12 2022 10:43 utc | 214
Posted by: ct | Jun 12 2022 8:39 utc | 191
Like you say they are not going to sacrifice manpower.
Attacking across the flat open ground the Russians would be sitting ducks for the Ukrainian artillery, which is embedded amongst the civilian population. The point made by 'Military Summary' was that the Ukrainians hold the high ground and as such their artillery will be zeroed in to the metre.
The Russian strength is their artillery which they would not be able to use without inflicting massive civilian casualties.
Caveat - I have no military training/expertise. The 'Military Summary' analysis has pointed out on a number of occasions where possible advance/retreat routes through open country are a death trap when targeted by enemy artillery, and as such are unviable options.
Posted by: ted001 | Jun 12 2022 10:45 utc | 215
"Upon instruction, Gazprombank then pays for the energy with those Roubles.
Thus, at no point is Russia holding Euros."
Posted by: John Cleary | Jun 12 2022 10:23 utc | 209
Then tell me please, who holds the euros, after they had been changed into rubles?
I suppose: the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Right?
Gazprom Bank must look for buyer of euros for rubles, either on the international markets, or at the central bank.
The Schwarzer Peter is left at Russia.
The other side is that the demand for rubles is rising, what we are watching. So Russia will be able to pay internationally with its currency, more and more. And they will more and more insist on payment for their products in rubles, I suppose...
What Russia will pursue, is to spend all western money as soon as possible, no more reserves. Every russian bank and every account on €$ can be cancelled every second.
This is why for Russia the US has default. Yes, it has indeed! So get rid of this paper shit asap, if you can't avoid accepting it for international payments.
The alternative world currency will be the Yuan. But like the Franc Swiss, the British Pound, the Euro are bound to the Greenback there will be many satellite currencies, that will be bound to the Yuan and support it. First of all the ruble. So China should appreciate a strong ruble.
If this happens, this will be the definite separation of the world in two opposite spheres of influence and power.
If this happens, it will be the first and only defeat of the Empire.
They wanted it so.
Posted by: njet | Jun 12 2022 10:54 utc | 216
Barofsky | Jun 12 2022 9:01 utc | 194
Yes, I put another comment in a bit further down. The account where I first saw that and linked to is usually good.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 12 2022 11:12 utc | 217
Then tell me please, who holds the euros, after they had been changed into rubles?
I suppose: the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Right?
Posted by: njet | Jun 12 2022 10:54 utc | 216
That is correct, at least to begin with. But the important point is that the euros are in an account at Gazprombank.
Which is NOT subject to sanctions. It was left out so that the poodles could still buy gas.
If they sanction Gazprombank then it really will be Goodnight Vienna (and the rest of them).
Posted by: John Cleary | Jun 12 2022 11:33 utc | 218
Posted by: Powerandpeople | Jun 12 2022 10:43 utc | 214
Thanks. Interesting excerpt eg:
"The yuan (renminbi) is not a freely floating international currency (it is pegged to the US dollar), and is subject to capital controls by the Chinese government. This means it cannot be a reserve currency (I am sure the Chinese don't mind). While China exports to a huge numbers of countries, the yuan is only used for 3.2% of global payments (according to SWIFT's renmimbi tracker), whereas the dollar, at the moment regarded as the only reserve currency, is very widely used - about 40% of global payments. The euro is not far behind, at 36.5%."
This was before 24.2.2022. Lets see how it is developing and how the Chinese view on the Dollar will change.
Posted by: njet | Jun 12 2022 11:50 utc | 219
That twitter channel linked in the OP has a video of a AFU MLRS firing and being nearly instantly targeted by Russian artillery.
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1535640717137264640
While the twitter is focussing on the fact itself, the more interesting note is that - despite being fields around this industrial area (?) - the MLRS stands between the buildings while firing. The military (self-preservation) reason is obvious, since it is harder to spot. Yet, it shows - again - that the AFU seeks shelter within civilian or industrial areas.
It becomes - not that we heard of this before, of course - Western media goes on like this:
6. 53 Fighting for Severodonetsk continues
In eastern Ukraine, fighting continues, among other things, for the city of Sievjerodonetsk. The Russian military fired on the civilian infrastructure in the city as well as in neighboring Lysychansk and three other places, the Ukrainian general staff said. Ukrainian units would have withstood Russian attacks from multiple directions.
https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ukraine-russland-konflikt-blog-100.html
... highlighting the apparent attack on civilians. The Russian`s MoD report says:
In addition, over the past day, high-precision air-based missiles have hit 9 areas where AFU manpower and military equipment concentration, 5 firing positions of multiple-launch rocket systems near Maloryazantsevo, Volcheyarovka, Podgornoe, Malaya Illinovka and Lisichansk in Lugansk People's Republic and also destroyed 1 Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile system near Minkovka in Donetsk People's Republic.
https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12424947@egNews
A the saying goes: there`s none so blind than those who don`t want to see.
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Jun 12 2022 11:53 utc | 220
Posted by: njet | Jun 12 2022 10:54 utc | 21
Then tell me please, who holds the euros, after they had been changed into rubles? I suppose: the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Right?
Euros are a hot potato. No one in Russia wants to hold them. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation cannot hold them, as they would immediately be frozen or confiscated.
Companies that import to Russia will buy the euros at auction at the Moscow Exchange. They will immediately make payment to their sellers. The price of the euro is is constantly fluctuating, as no one in Russia keeps reserves or is willing to take a speculative position on Euros. Also, the flow of euros is not constant. Payment for the previous month's delivery of natural gas is due around the 20th of each month.
Posted by: John Cleary | Jun 12 2022 11:33 utc | 218
But the important point is that the euros are in an account at Gazprombank. Which is NOT subject to sanctions.
Yes, but ultimately all euros are in some European bank or the European Central Bank, and thus under European jurisdiction. They can be frozen at any time.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 12 2022 11:56 utc | 221
To be fair to Biden a bit, when we say the US trained the Ukies for 8+ years, that includes the Trump presidency.
Posted by: Jonathan W | Jun 12 2022 12:19 utc | 222
the EUR for gas is SOLD on the moscow exchange to private traders.
central bank is not buying them
gazprom bank sells it immediately
arbitrageurs get the EUR and presumably send it back to EU for a quick small profit
why do so many think Russia will still hold onto the EUR? It is toxic, they are not stupid.
Posted by: ct | Jun 12 2022 12:44 utc | 223
Great report and fab comments , I’ll just bunch a few responses together on this fine Sunday afternoon as I had for the green for a bit of exercise and fun.
“And, unwittingly and unwillingly, Russia will have contributed to the fulfillment of this new
zionist dream.
What horror!
Posted by: CarlD | Jun 11 2022 22:33 utc | 94”
- de-zionifying the Palestine and restoring it to its long suffering and wandering semetic peoples would be a final destination in a road map to justice. The escapade that was first set in a contractual stone - the Balfour Declaration- a long planned attempt at using the British Empire and the rising American one with the creation of the Fed by these persons named ; their failure to achieve that hegemony even after depopulating European Jewry by terror to achieve the millennia long plans to enslave EurAsia through the south. That escapade is done. The Empire is dead. It will need to send back its settlers to their original homelands largely European but with added spaces across the US. From where they will hope to yet again in some generations try and rise again. In their little walled off madness the Collective Waste
- ——
“This is the final showdown between Russia and the Empire. Both sides playing to win.
@ Posted by: John Cleary | Jun 11 2022 22:34 utc | 95 “
- Not wrong John. The final showdown was planned and my opinion is as above. However it seems that we would have had a showdown in Syria/Iraq/Iran battlefield in 2016 with proxy Turkish and isis with Saudi money and Israeli murderous intent along with a orgy of Nato wannabes and mercenaries galore and even more dumb boots on the ground with most returning in body bags - had it not been for Merkel - who according to many other Western powers was being accused of being in charge too long! No one worries abou Lizzie celebrating 70 years as a head of state. Unelected too!Macron was sent in to take over the EU from her and align it these ancient interests. BrexShit was designed for similar purposes - the moment she was finally out of Office - the great plans finally rolled forward. Fortunately the pipeline was already built , it will be used thus winter or Europeans will freeze to death in their own homes. And Russia and China and SCO matured these new world order plans and got the majority of the worlds population away from their centuries long Stockholm syndrome awe and worship of the Western Imperialism. And Mr f Kinzhell and other tech was fully de roped produced and ready to smite ALL the 800 natzo bases and imperial fleets if they dared to resist their demise.
I think Merkel will standout as the best European leader ever when herstory is finally written.
——————-
“What am I missing?
Posted by: Atown | Jun 11 2022 23:46 utc | 119 “
- Their legal nationality?
And their legal nation not admittedly being a belligerent means they have ZERO claims to any Geneva Convention protections.
If they have also committed atrocities against civilians they are beyond salvation - it means the rest of their lives in prison and not released until they are in their seventies! Shooting is too good for them.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Jun 12 2022 12:58 utc | 224
The West has the right to give Ukraine nuclear warheads—MEP Sikorski (Espreso TV, June 11, 2022 — in Ukrainian)
…
“I don’t think that Putin will dare to attack NATO territory with nuclear weapons. Apart from rhetoric, I don’t see any preparations at this moment. Russia has several thousand tactical warheads stored at specially prepared warehouses, and we and the Alliance are monitoring this situation 24 hours a day. And if nuclear warheads were to move to any unit, whether aviation, artillery or missile, that would indicate that Russia is preparing for something like that. But nothing like that is happening,” the MEP noted.Radosław Sikorski noted that a more difficult issue is how to convince Putin that it would be too risky for him to issue such an order against the Ukraine, which is not a formal member of NATO and our [NATO’s — S] ally.
“I have two arguments that I believe Putin should take into account. First, the use of tactical weapons occurs through a different decision channel than that of strategic weapons. Strategic intercontinental weapons are essentially a very short chain of command from the president’s order to the officers who launch the missiles. Because the decision must be very quick, and the reaction within a few minutes, for example, to the enemy’s first strike. In contrast, tactical weapons are used on the battlefield and are at the disposal of leaders of much lower rank, of course, by order of the Kremlin. I think that if Putin were to issue such an order, that moment would have been of the greatest danger for him personally. Because Russian generals must decide whether to be responsible for the genocide with all its consequences or to get rid of Putin. There is no other option,” the Polish politician explained.
Sikorski added that it is impossible not to carry out the order and at the same time keep the position, and possibly life.
“There is a second argument that has not yet been made public, but I think it is well-founded. As is known, the Ukraine has given up its nuclear potential after the Budapest Memorandum was signed in 1994. Today, Russians and some others say those weren’t guarantees. But everybody understood then that, in exchange for that, the Ukraine would be an independent country within the borders established since the Soviet era. Russia has undoubtedly violated this agreement, and many times at that. However, because Russia has violated this Budapest Memorandum, I believe that we, as the West, might have the right to give the Ukraine nuclear warheads. In such a way that it can defend its independence,” the MEP stressed.
[video of Sikorski speaking dubbed in Ukrainian]
When translating from Ukrainian to English, Google Translate sometimes omits parts of sentences or even entire sentences, so I had to translate everything manually. Given the sensitivity of the topic, I have made an effort to translate everything as accurately as possible, but I haven’t checked whether Espreso TV’s transcript matches the audio.
Posted by: S | Jun 12 2022 13:03 utc | 225
Atown @119: "Aidan Aslin, Shaun Pinner, and Saadoun Brahim signed contracts... I don't understand why they should be considered mercenaries."
Do you just not understand what a mercenary is or are you stupid in a more general way?
A mercenary is a gun for hire. They are hired using contracts. They are not legally "prisoners of war" when they are captured. They are just common criminals and terrorists who kill people for money and it is perfectly legal and appropriate to try them as such.
Here are the appropriate entries in customary international humanitarian law relating to mercenaries. Idiots like you should read up on it before considering playing "Player Unknown Battleground" in real life in some foreign land. If you morons choose to go anyway then you absolutely deserve to face the firing squad when you get caught.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 12 2022 13:04 utc | 226
Am a bit surprised at the seemingly universal acceptance that the ‘20 election was stolen. I say this as one who despises both US ruling mouthpieces.
In the first place one has to begin with the indefensible assumption Trump had done such a good job as POTUS that he couldn’t legitimately lose.
In the second you’d have to present the missing evidence. In reality is nothing more than the GOPs answer to Russiagate - repeat the assertion often and loudly. The only way to credibly make the argument is by qualifying the accusation and saying ALL elections in the US are stolen, and have been for decades.
Posted by: Miller | Jun 12 2022 13:15 utc | 227
Nato and the West must not just be defeated, they must be DISCREDITED, so that no one is tempted to buy into their delusion for decades.
A long game, a very long game and a battlefield to play it out... that's what this is about."
Posted by: james | Jun 12 2022 2:49 utc | 155
Yeah, sign me up for that idea too. And that is why there is no hurry.
This is all very Putin-like IMHO too, if you examine how he dealt with Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, and then Ukraine, he is very pragmatic, and never invests more than the minimum necessary to a.) nail the problem down in manageable form, and b.) then leave it be and move on. He keeps his eye on the big problem (us), and does not let himself get over-extended or distracted. This drives the Neocons etc. who rely on duplicity and distraction, just about nuts. :-)
Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 12 2022 13:26 utc | 228
Petri Krohn @221
Yes, euros can be a hot potato for the banks. However, euro,and dollar bills are currently being hoarded by russian households. After all, the amount of rubles you can get on the street for either of those currencies is wildly different to the official exchange rate.
Posted by: Joe6pack | Jun 12 2022 13:31 utc | 229
In the second you’d have to present the missing evidence. In reality is nothing more than the GOPs answer to Russiagate - repeat the assertion often and loudly. The only way to credibly make the argument is by qualifying the accusation and saying ALL elections in the US are stolen, and have been for decades.
Posted by: Miller | Jun 12 2022 13:15 utc | 227
My own attitude is that they were both trying to steal it and Biden, having more experience at that, won.
Posted by: Bemildred | Jun 12 2022 13:37 utc | 230
Comments on Doctorow.?
His background, education, expertise.?
I’ll leave it to Andrei Martyanov. None do it better.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jun 12 2022 10:06 utc | 204
-------------------------------------------
Doktorow was born and raised in the U.S., Doctorow’s grandparents were Russian emigres. He studied Russian history in Harvard and Columbia, not in Russia, meaning the way the Americans taught that. He did a post graduate course in Leningrad in 1971-72. Later, he worked for US companies in Russia in those infamous 90s. He is connected to Leningrad (Sankt Petersburg today) is through his wife Larisa. His family name of his maternal garndfather should've been Smaizanovich, but was written as Smith at Ellis Island. His grandfather's first name was Gerschen.
Doktorow is a strange surname for a Russian, more like Druker (printer), and only certain people get that kind of surnames. (Druker, by the way was one of my friends, so I guessed right that Gilbert Doctorow is not a Russian, per se.) His paternal grandfather had come from Vilnius (a highly Russian-hating area, even today). But, it doesn't mean Gilbert is not in love with Russia, but his American upbringing, and the time in Russia in that infamous 90s and the Brussels living might've blunted his thinking in many ways, even though he has a Russian wife at his side.😃
By the way, Martyanov is from Baku, which is ~2900 kms from Peter - Питер. (That's how we like to call Leningrad Sankt Petersburg).
Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 13:42 utc | 231
Posted by: Atown | Jun 11 2022 23:46 utc | 119
This might except them from mercenaries term, as defined in Geneva convention.
But is DPR a signatory to that convention? Is LPR?
Would LPR/DPR determine that according to their laws and treaties those guys are merc - then so it is.
Legalistic word games are funny - two can play them.
Posted by: Arioch | Jun 12 2022 13:47 utc | 232
Roger@115
“ it’s about who controls the means of production”
We have moved beyond academic distinctions here in the US. The democrat party through stolen election has seized the primary source of power and are using it to reorient production and cultural dominance toward an unnatural group of disparate minorities, primarily Jews, but also blacks and gays and away from the majority white working class. This is a revolutionary movement. The term cultural Marxism is quite appropriate.
Posted by: Bobolinski | Jun 11 2022 23:48 utc | 121
So you chose the long hard way. This suits us.
"“ it’s about who controls the means of production”
We have moved beyond academic distinctions here in the US."
Your myopic americanist ignorance doesn't take precedence over historically well-defined terms.
The importance of the means of production is the keystone of Marxism, without this it cannot be Marxism.
According to this, what you're talking about is not Marxism.
"The democrat party through stolen election has seized the primary source of power"
Power struggles between liberal parties are not a Marxist phenomenon, nor are they a concern for Marxism except as object lessons in bourgeois rapacity and manipulation.
Liberal-democratic institutions are not the sources of power according to Marxism, and seizing them is not an end goal of Marxism. The sources of power are the means of production, organized masses and revolutionary violence.
According to this, what you're talking about is not Marxism.
"are using it to reorient production and cultural dominance toward an unnatural group of disparate minorities, primarily Jews, but also blacks and gays"
The color or sexual preferences of people are not a concern for Marxism. Their class relationships are.
These development doesn't change class relations, there isn't a program for the socialization or nationalization of the means of production, nor a program for the exclusion of the bourgeoisie from political power, therefore they are not Marxist developments.
According to this, what you're talking about is not Marxism.
"and away from the majority white working class."
Again, the color of people is not a concern for Marxism. The working class doesn't hold power over the means of production in the US of A, regardless of whether its components are white, black, or polka-dotted. The bourgeoisie holds power over the means of production, including the means of cultural and propaganda production. The political developments you're talking about don't move towards bringing them under control of the working class.
According to this, what you're talking about is not Marxism.
"This is a revolutionary movement."
It is not revolutionary, it is not even reformist. The Democrat Party of the USA has been one half of the duopoly on political power on the US of A for long. It also doesn't change the structure of economic and political power, only shifts relative weight of actors within it, if at all.
Furthermore: "revolutionarism", even if it could be truthfully predicated of the political developments you're talking about (which it cannot), isn't privative of Marxism. The French Revolution wasn't Marxist, the Xinhai revolution wasn't Marxist, the Islamic Revolution in Iran wasn't marxist.
It cannot be truthfully said that what you're talking about is Marxist, according to this.
"The term cultural Marxism is quite appropriate."
It is not, by a long stretch.
It doesn't follow Marxist theory or practice.
It doesn't share goals with Marxism
The favored political actors (they're not even a "revolutionary subject") are not those of Marxism.
The historical relation to Marxism is tenuous at best.
Therefore, it is not Marxism by any objective criteria.
Adding "cultural" in front doesn't change that one iota.
Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 12 2022 13:58 utc | 233
My thought as to why Zelensky will not allow the Ukrainian troops to withdraw is because any withdrawal will have a tendency to bring the front-line closer to Kiev. Despite Zlensky pretending to be a military leader, donning a uniform for example, it is an act; we know he is a puppet, an actor and probably a coward when it comes to endangering his own life.
Yes, but ultimately all euros are in some European bank or the European Central Bank, and thus under European jurisdiction. They can be frozen at any time.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jun 12 2022 11:56 utc | 221
Yes Petri, that is quite correct. But in this case the account with the ECB is in the name of Gazprombank. Which is not under sanctions.
If they freeze the Gazprombank account then it is the end of gas to Europe.
And, as I said, "Goodnight Vienna"
Posted by: John Cleary | Jun 12 2022 14:01 utc | 235
Arganthonios @ 233 And Roger, Bobolinski and whoever.
WTF? I fail to see marxists on any side of the conflict being discussed. Could you perhaps talk about this somewhere else. I can already see the marxist circular firing squad formng.
Posted by: Joe6pack | Jun 12 2022 14:12 utc | 236
Hey guys, there's no Marxism in Russia. It's gone a long time ago. 😃
Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 14:14 utc | 237
At around the time Russia recognized the two republics, it set up an evacuation line to get people out of the conflict zone. Evacuation is voluntary but the line is always there.Russia wants a long war - for reasons other than propaganda value of nazi's shelling Donetsk.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 12 2022 3:59 utc | 164
We understand how the war started. Russia recognized the independence of DLPR, then accepted their request for military assistance because they were under attack from Ukraine. This was the legal reason given by Putin on Feb 24, when he launched the SMO.
So what legal reason does he have to continue the war, taking Odessa and moving past the Dneiper, if the DLPRs are no longer under attack?
Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 14:23 utc | 238
@Kingsmeg #238:
So what legal reason does he have to continue the war, taking Odessa and moving past the Dneiper, if the DLPRs are no longer under attack?
All the shelling of Russian oblasts by the Ukraine, perhaps?
Posted by: S | Jun 12 2022 14:30 utc | 239
@ K | Jun 12 2022 5:07 utc | 174 / @ anon2020 | Jun 12 2022 9:55 utc | 201 / @ Bemildred | Jun 12 2022 13:26 utc | 228
thanks guys! that is Les7 who said that a day or two ago and at the time i said i strongly agreed with it... so, there are a few of us who seem to think this way!
putin plays a different game - very pragmatic as bemildred notes... cheers james
Posted by: james | Jun 12 2022 14:37 utc | 240
So what legal reason does he have to continue the war, taking Odessa and moving past the Dneiper,...?
Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 14:23 utc | 238
-----------------------------------------------------------
Russia is the legal successor of the USSR.
After the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, Russia assumed responsibility for its foreign debt. And, this debt was paid off fully in 2017 by Russia, which also means the part of the debt that goes to Ukraine, and all other former constituent republics of the USSR.
If you take credit to buy a house, who owns the house, you or the bank?
Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 14:41 utc | 241
Hey guys, there's no Marxism in Russia. It's gone a long time ago. 😃
Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 14:14 utc | 237
Correct, at least in an official capacity.
But there is no plausible argument to siding with NATO from marxist grounds, and at least the RF isn't completely alienated from marxist influence in its history, and isn't hellbent on eradicating every trace of marxism from the face of the earth with extreme prejudice.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the RF doesn't oppose it in any capacity, much less that the RF has promoting marxism as a goal.
Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 12 2022 14:45 utc | 242
There's no Marxism in Russia, official or unofficial capacity. Marxism was foreign to Russia from the beginning.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 14:54 utc | 243
A Russian signal reconnaissance plane and two fighter jets entered Swedish-supervised airspace north of Visby on Thursday without announcing the approach. The plane also flew at low altitude over the American amphibious ship USS Kearsarge. https://www-dn-se.translate.goog/sverige/ryskt-spionplan-krankte-svenskt-civilt-luftrum/?_x_tr_sl=sv&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc
Its interesting, if any Swedish, Finnish or NATO planes ever would try to cross the Russian airspace. 😃
Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 14:56 utc | 244
ostro @241
You clearly do not understand the meaning of ’take responsibility’
Thats all right, invaders get the meaning eventually.
Posted by: Joe6pack | Jun 12 2022 14:56 utc | 245
@Paul Damascene #36
Pay more attention to how these strikes on civilians are actually conducted. These aren't 100+ round strikes as per an attack on a fortified position or necessarily even a short, targeted strike on an exposed military target.
These are pure terror attacks: emplace, fire off a half dozen rounds, then leave.
An entire city is a huge target; counterbattery requires both counterbattery radar and attached artillery within range of the attacker.
How many would be required to cover the exposed part of Donetsk? It would probably be dozens or more.
Sadly, it is simply not a good use of capability vs. say, protection for the forces attacking the Donbas cauldron.
Posted by: c1ue | Jun 12 2022 14:58 utc | 246
Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 14:23 utc | 238 "So what legal reason does he have to continue the war, taking Odessa and moving past the Dneiper, if the DLPRs are no longer under attack?"
Has any of the Russian leadership ever stated their intention of "taking Odessa and moving past the Dneiper"
"if the DLPRs are no longer under attack?" If? LDPR would always be under threat of attack until there is a negotiated settlement - a treaty of some sort.
One thing that can be guaranteed is Putin will do the unexpected as far as denazifing and ensuring a permanently neutral or demilitarized Ukraine. I think Russia will pause when the current phase is completed as nothing can be negotiated with the current Kiev government but that may be wrong too.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 12 2022 15:03 utc | 247
All the shelling of Russian oblasts by the Ukraine, perhaps?Posted by: S | Jun 12 2022 14:30 utc | 239
I don't pretend to know what's going on in Putin or Shoigu or whoever's head. I just think there are valid reasons why Russia wouldn't make it a #1 priority to go after the few artillery positions left that are still shelling Donetsk. Apparently French howitzers and ammo are now being used (per Strategika51), as well as American.
I think we're all coming to see that Russia is in no hurry to end this, and could be planning for a state of permanent war against NATO in Ukraine, much like in Syria. Because USA/NATO never gives up, they're still attacking Cuba after 60+ years. Venezuela 20+, Iran 50+, Afghanistan 40+, despite having decisively lost in all those places many years ago.
Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 15:08 utc | 248
@ Joe6pack | Jun 12 2022 14:56 utc | 245
i am waiting for the imperialist bastards - uk and usa - to get the message eventually and start taking responsibility for what they have unleashed on the planet... a person can dream... i think hell will freeze over before it happens though.... there is too much ingrained ''ostrich with head in sand'' vibe that comes out of the uk-usa...
Posted by: james | Jun 12 2022 15:11 utc | 249
Has any of the Russian leadership ever stated their intention of "taking Odessa and moving past the Dneiper""if the DLPRs are no longer under attack?" If? LDPR would always be under threat of attack until there is a negotiated settlement - a treaty of some sort.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 12 2022 15:03 utc | 247
No, they haven't said they're coming for Odessa, we're all assuming it though. Well I am, given the strategic and historical importance of Odessa for Russia, plus the trade union hall massacre.
As for ending this by negotiated settlement, Putin would probably be deposed if he agreed to one now, after Minsk 1 and 2 and the promise not to expand NATO '1 inch to the east'. Both USA/NATO and Ukraine are incapable of honoring agreements. Russia is hoping for a decisive victory, not another treaty kicking the can down the road, giving NATO/Ukraine time re-arm and re-supply.
Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 15:14 utc | 250
There's no Marxism in Russia, official or unofficial capacity. Marxism was foreign to Russia from the beginning.
Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 14:54 utc | 243
Lol.
Nice vacuous and ahistorical statement, apart from the trivial meaning that Marxism started in Germany.
Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 12 2022 15:25 utc | 251
Nice vacuous and ahistorical statement, apart from the trivial meaning that Marxism started in Germany.
Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 12 2022 15:25 utc | 251
------------------
Even Lenin was foreign to Russia. 😃
Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 15:35 utc | 252
Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 15:14 utc | 250
Not under the current government but at some point in time there will be a negotiated settlement. That will include changes to Ukraine constitution, outlawing Nazism and Bandera, referendums and recognizing the outcome of referendums.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 12 2022 15:43 utc | 253
Arganthonios | Jun 12 2022 13:58 utc | 233
"This is a revolutionary movement."
"It is not revolutionary, ...Furthermore: "revolutionarism", even if it could be truthfully predicated of the political developments you're talking about (which it cannot), isn't privative of Marxism. The French Revolution wasn't Marxist, the Xinhai revolution wasn't Marxist, the Islamic Revolution in Iran wasn't marxist.
It cannot be truthfully said that what you're talking about is Marxist, according to this."
Sure, true enough, but only among Stalinists and other dogmatic types is Marxism some sort of revealed religion to which no updates are possible. There have actually been a number of very bright people who have made refinements to Marxist thought without discarding Marxism in the process like the Frankfurt School did. One of those was Trotsky with his deep dive into Permanent Revolution.
Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted.
Whenever we see any sort of revolutionary movement in the current period, even if it is a bourgeois revolution like we sometimes see in the Global South, that revolution will fail. So long as revolutionary conditions persist then by successive approximations the revolution will eventually assume Marxist characteristics. I believe we can see that process taking place in Iran.
My point is that when capitalism is in crisis then all efforts short of global reset through mass destruction of productive forces will lead to socialist revolution that by necessity must eventually embrace Marxism. This process isn't deterministic, though, and the revolution could fail resulting in the above-mentioned global reset and destruction of productive forces. This would lead to a new Dark Ages while productive forces are rebuilt to where revolutionary conditions once again prevail. I see the latter as the most probable outcome for the West at this point.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 12 2022 15:47 utc | 254
Even Lenin was foreign to Russia. 😃
Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 15:35 utc | 252
Is Ulianovsk/Simbirsk not in Russia? Maybe it's located in Nigeria?
German and Swedish ancestry are certainly not Russian, very well.
Jewish ancestry is a fuck because judaism is a religion, we'd have to trace when and where his ancestors were converted or born to Jews in order to ascertain whether they're russian or not. Which is impossible. This tells us as much regarding ethnicity as his parents being one Orthodox and the other Lutheran/secular, that is, very little.
Russian ancestry is definitely Russian, lol.
Are Kalmuk and Chuvash ethnicities, having their biggest populations in Russia, not part of the multi-ethnic and multicultural Russian nation? Again, maybe they're Argentinian ethnicities? Or are you maybe suggesting that they should be treated as the Baltics treat Russians?
Remember, by this same standard you're setting, Christianism is even more foreign to Russia - Moscow Patriarchate notwithstanding. Of course it would also be foreign to the Vatican and even the Roman Empire.
Somehow I don't think you'll be as eager to admit as much, but I'm open to be surprised.
Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 12 2022 15:58 utc | 255
This casualty rate has been the same each and every day since early April when Zelensky rejected further negotiations and the war entered its attrition phase.
B, it is absolutely out of the question that the casualty rate has been constant since early April, because the conditions of the battle have totally changed. The battle as it is at the moment is a highly efficient killing field, because of the convergence of numerous features that I won't go into because you know them well. That was not the case until the heavy artillary started destroying the defence lines on such a massive scale, i.e. well after the fall of Mariupal. I wouldn't be surprised if the 300 KIA per day (including those MIA who were killed and left behind on the battlefield during retreat) could concievably be massively underestimated for that short period since the start of the rout. The defences are disintegrating. That is a totally different situation.
The daily reported number of pieces hit have changed over time from 50+ per day to now single digits.
The total numbers in the Russia report are too high (as they usually are in similar 'western' reports). They amount to more than what the Ukraine had at the start of the war.
The numbers reported "destroyed" by Russia would include those that are "destroyed"=damaged and later repaired and put back into the battle. Some pieces of equipment might even have been repaired and put back into action more than once before it finally becomes unrepairable or is captured. I would interpret the "destroyed" numbers as meaning "taken out of currently useable service", no more. However Russia has been destroying repair facilities, so not many of those damaged items are going to be coming back into action. That the numbers destroyed daily is slowly going down to a trickle - even during this rout - shows clearly that there is not much left to destroy.
Posted by: BM | Jun 12 2022 16:00 utc | 256
„After all, the amount of rubles you can get on the street for either of those currencies is wildly different to the official exchange rate.“
Posted by: Joe6pack | Jun 12 2022 13:31 utc | 229
Two questions:
You get more rubles then the official exchange rate indicates?
Why? Does the Russian distrust their currency?
Thanks!
Posted by: njet | Jun 12 2022 16:14 utc | 257
Posted by: njet | Jun 12 2022 10:03 utc | 203
Thanks for trying but . . .
You probably are from the anglo-saxon sphere. Typical behavior. Believing you better know about France than its inhabitants does.
Here are the facts :
- France does not need the Western Alliance, because :
- it is a permanent member of the Security Council of United Nations, with veto right.
- it is a nuclear power, with ICBM launched by nuclear submarine.
- the proof is that for almost half a century, France stayed outside of NATO (approximately from 1960 to 2010 )
The reason of France coming back in NATO is only the US controled media in France, which made Sarkozy and Hollande elected.
In order to get elected, Macron faked allegiance to US. When US understood clearly that he intended to come back to De Gaule's independent policy, US tried a colored revolution, the Yellow Vest.
Three month before Yellow Vest, Macron and Putin had a private meeting for two days in the French Presidential Summer Palace, "Fort de Brégançon" . . .
There is one parasite, it's the USA, not the other side.
Posted by: Parisian Guy | Jun 12 2022 16:19 utc | 258
@ Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 12 2022 10:25 utc | 210
Thanks for feedback.
That is interesting.
From a humanitarian perspective, it is all about Donbas (plus a 20km demilitarized zone).
Politically it all pivots on access to the black sea and land bridge to west - puts Moldova in spot light.
Economically, Ukraine is toast, unless they seek resolution.
Russia will be doing Ukraine (and Europe) a favor if it crushes the current regime. Its is impressive how it is changing global dynamic - providing opening to multi-polar future for those who still aspire to sovereignty. Some still try to play the situation to thier own advantage. Life will become more difficult for the technocrats and proxy leaders if they have to earn thier pay.
Posted by: jared | Jun 12 2022 16:34 utc | 259
ostro | Jun 12 2022 9:59 utc | 202
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jun 12 2022 10:19 utc | 207
Here again. Two nice exemples of non-French people commenting about France, while not knowing the basic relevant facts.
So, for your information, today is the day of the national election of the Assemblée Nationale [ our House of Representatives].
Therefore, no current Macron's statement should be taken at face value.
You'll be able to know the real intent of France after the end of the election, which is next Sunday.
Posted by: Parisian Guy | Jun 12 2022 16:40 utc | 260
Arganthonios | Jun 12 2022 13:58 utc | 233
_____
Thanks for the definitive rebuttal of "cultural Marxism", a nonsense Orwellian confection for mass consumption. Their ever-evolving neo-lexicon is engineered to hijack the mind (witness them here) and divide and rule society with shadow-puppet theater plays. Democracy theater is a long running series of episodes featuring ass and an elephant puppets (Caitlin Johnstone) that are devoid of meaningful content. Meanwhile, the shows' sponsors work the crowd as pickpockets.
Starting esp in '09, this theater's elephant troupe began loudly trumpeting "Obama's a Marxist" over and over to its side of the audience, while the ass troupe also played its own scripted role to its audience ... which was deafening silence (easy lines). So then it must be true, Obama is a Marxist!
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Jun 12 2022 16:53 utc | 261
Cultural Marxism is like Guinea pig: neither of pigs nor of Guinea.
-----
So what legal reason does he have to continue the war, taking Odessa and moving past the Dneiper,...?
Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 14:23 utc | 238
Didn't West gave us a plenty of examples how to do it?
1. Failure of Ukraine to give away war criminals for persecution in LDPR, starting with Ze and Poro or anyone else. Just like USA justified their war on Afghanistan. ("denazification")
2. Failure of Ukraine to arrange regular and all-encompassing foreign (Russia, Belorussia, LPR, DPR) inspections ensuring Ukraine does no more aquire long range weapons. ("demilitarization")
3. Formation of new people republics in exile and "rinse and repeat" recognition (liberation of "captive nations" and colonies)
4. Famine and impoverishment imposed by Ze regime upon Ukrainians, and especially on Gypsies (R2P, Libya style)
5. Lack of democracy (any anti-Ze media/party that was not given enough donations from gov't budget. To mirror stream of accusations against Kremlin)
6. Continuation of shelling and i capability of Ze to fulfill agreements (any doubts there would always be some ukropatriot, happy to shoot if given weapon and some money?)
7. Shelling of Poland, then punishment raid by Polish Army, then helping Ukraine to repell NATO trustbreaking invasion.
8. Securing private property: grain and crops. From illegal (since we said so) seizure by Ze regime/EU carpetbaggers.
9. Saving EU from ecological catastrophe Ze regime would imminently create on godawful derelict Soviet NPPs in Rovno and Khmelnitsky
...and so forth.
Posted by: Arioch | Jun 12 2022 17:36 utc | 262
Although Putin is unusually scrupulous in trying to observe the legalities of these circumstances, the fact is we're way past that. The US empire is history's most lawless rogue state, the bioweapons labs in the Borderlands presented such a clear and present danger as to render any legal obstacle moot, and Zelensky's proclamation that the Ukraine would abrogate the treaty renouncing nukes also presented such an imminent danger that any competent Russian head of state would take action based purely upon reasons of state.
The fact is that the Russians owe zero to the fake "legality" of the West and its prostituted globalist institutions. The fact that Putin nevertheless is so legalistically scrupulous is vastly more than the Ukraine deserves.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jun 12 2022 17:59 utc | 263
what worries me is that we almost only see men that seem to be in their 40s, 50s or even 60s dying in the fighting in the Donbass. There may be some 30 year ols but the 20 years olds seem bvery few.
My fear is that the younger, most fit men, having come of age udner the current fanatic Ukrainean regime - which is not less fanatic than the third reich was after the war had started, in fact, the Ukrainean leadership and top brass and SBU are almost even more fanatic than their corresponding institutions in the third reich - young men from Ukraine are being trained in Poland on a relatively small number of (Compared to Russia desgins) very potent western AFVs (armored fighting vehicle) and MBT (Main Battle Tank) systems that Russia will have severe problems countering, if they encounter them en masse in combined arms warfare, when the fighting goes out of the Donbass and down to Odessa, which I presume Russia will want to take togheterh with all Ukrainean coastal areas.
All of russias mechanized forces incl relatively new models of MBTs such as the upgraded T-72 of the B3-version and B3 obr. 2016-version has as part of their sights european thermal imaging cameras working in the long wave infra red spectrum, made by Sagem (Now Nexter), in the shape of an older version of the Catherine XP series of LWIR cameras that does not perform very well at all compared to modernized western MBTs and even AFVs sights. Most russian IFVs lack all thermal cameras except active ones which is like turning on a flashlight and pointing it at the enemy if he has passive infrared equipment.
If there are let's say 200000 of Ukraine's younger men being trained in Poland (We know from Michael Traceys reporting that something fishy that NATO deos not want people to know about is going on in Poland), some as mechanized infantry in the form of dismounts and vehicle crews, some as tankers, some as combat support troops including several regiments of artillery, and some as mechanics, logicists specialists, comms specialists and other combat service support troops plus SAm systems operators trained only on a relatively low number of western systems to keep logistical problems with spared parts down (Let's say donated German Marder AFVs, donated American Bradley M3Ax AFVs and perhaps British Warrior AFVs or american LAV-25s; Leopard 2A4 and 2A5 and M1Ax Abrams MBTs and CEASAR, Pzh 2000 and AS-90 SP Howitzers, plus NASAMS, Aspide and Stormer Starstreak systems) together with maybe 1500 MTVR, LVS-R and HX medium and heavy trucks, and then they are held in Poland unitl the whole force is ready to deploy and then NATO brings in it's proxy army in the summer or the early autumn w let's say 15 battalions of mechanized infantry, 10 battalions of motorized infantry in MRAPs with weapon stations with M2HB heavy machine guns, 10 armored battalions and 15 SP howitzer battalions and 10 MLRS battalions.
What then? The russians would be killed before being seen if the west is smart enough to send 40 thousand NVGs as well and the russians would eb destroyed if fighting at night where the western equipment is so much superior it's not a fair fight.
Furthermore, almost all russian MBTs and AFVs lack panoramic commander's sights in any form. These are usually equipped with a day TV-Camera and a thermal LWIR-camera and is used by for the vehicle commander to scout for new target's while the gunner is engaging the current target and when the commander has found a suitable target with his indepently rotating and traversing panoramic sight he can quickly pass off the target to the gunner where the gunner can slew to cue and then fire a first shot very fast and western design are very good at getting first shot hits.
Similarly, all BMP and BMD (To say nothing of the BTR) infantry fighting vehicles have a very low level of protection compared to western AFVs.
And even though the Russian vehicles has a 30 mm autocannon and western counterparts normally has a 25 mm or a 20 mm autocannon and sometimes a 30 mm autocanon in platforms that are getting old and is slated for at least partial replacement - as some of the western AFVs mentioned above) this does not take the factor of which ammunition is commonly used into account not the amount of protection the 12 ton BMD, the 15 ton BTR-82 and the 20 ton BMP-3 offers compared to the western designs commonly weighing 25-30 tons - almost all of it being armor - nor the types of ammunition used by western and russian designs.
The russian vehicles use two versions of 30x165 mm autocannons but they usually only have API (Armor Piercing Inciendiary - ie it has a fire starting effect after penetration) ammunition which, to repeat, has a comparably very much higher drag than APDS projectiles and an enormous drag compared to rod penetrator projectiles that are found in APFSDS grenades. The russians might have started to use APDS rounds in some capacity but it does not seem like it is widely availble and most of the Western AFVs i listed above are protected from Russian 30x165 mm APDS rounds anyway if there is some distance between the vehicles.
So only looking at caliber is misleading. The 30x165 mm autocannon ammunition in use by russia has a comparably low muzzle veocity compared to western 30 mm designs which uses a larger case with more propellant - 30 x 173 mm is the NATO standard, rougly 960 versus 1100 m/s for standard HE (High Explosive grenades which are wuite comparable in shae and weight to AP/API projectiles.
The biggest difference though is that the Russians stil use API projectiles - functional at short ranges (Up to 1000-1500 meters in a 30x165 mm autocannon against light armoured/Semi-hard targets) but the projectiles have very high drag and loose speed and thus kinetic energy and thus penetrating power fast.
The result is that the Marder - which has the smallest gun of western AFVs and carries 1000 20 mm grenades as a standard load - can pierce the armor of every russian IFV from outside the threat range of it's autocannon and besides most Russian IFVs have very poor thermal cameras and very often worse ballistic vomputers using fewer parameters to caclulate the ballistic solution (Which means a bigger margin of error and greater chance of a missed forst shot against an enemy AFV/IFV or MBT) compared to western designs and if fighting at night the Russian vehicles would probably be killed without knowing what hit them.
Western 20 mm autocanons use APDS ammuntioin (Armor Piercing Discarding Sabot) and 25 and 30 mm designs use APFSDS (Armor Piercing Fin Stabilized Discarding Sabot) shells - the first fires a solid tungsten projectile which has much lower drag than AP/API projectiles and the latter has negliable drag compared to AP/API projectiles perhaps loosing 100 m/s of it's 1450 m/s muzzle veolcity at 1500 meters from the musszle, while a russian 30x165 mm API shell has a muzzle velocity of about 975 m/s and will have lost maybe 300-400 m/s second at 1500 meter range - and remember kinetic energy is proportional to the velocity to the power of two and also a fin stabilised rod penetrator - since it is so long compared to itä's width - can penetrate much more armor (Among MBTs long rod penetrators are the only type of projectiles used in MBT vs MBT battle in this age, and this has been so since the 70s for all first and second rate armies (If we posit there are perhaps five to fore rates)).
So, a 20 mm autocannon such as the Rheinmetall Rbh 202 on the German Marder (which is being replaced since 15 years), although slowly as i understand it, loaded with APDS rounds can kill any BMP, BTR or BMD version way outside of the range where the BMP can kill the Marder, which is protected against 30x165 mm API grenades even at short ranges. The only exception is those Russian designes able to fire ATGMs, for instance the BMP-3 which might have chance of using it's LP cannon/ATGM launcher - but the missile is ACLOS guided and has a speed of maybe 250-350 mps (I don't remeber and it depends on missile version used) while the APFSDS ammunition from a Bradley has a muzzle velocity of 1440 m/s and takes less than two seconds two reach 2 km and if the Bradley/Marder/Warrior destroys the BMP-3 missile guidance is lost and the missile will miss the Bradley/Marder/Warrior.
And this is during day fighting. If the fighting is going on at night the BMP will probably not even see the Bradley or Marder and suddenly the BMP is penetrated by several tungsten alloy APDS penetrators or one or two APFSDS fin stabilized rod penetrators and the fragmentation and spalling kills or severly wounds everybody in the BMP.
I think there's a fair chance NATO is secrelty training alarge force consisting of younger ukraineans in poland, and they are being trained as a complete combined arms force with SHORAD and MRAD SAM coverage.
I have said it before, but the hatred the US neocon elite - which is not white christian - has for Russia - even though this groiup took over Russia in the revolution of 1917 and institutued a terror machine aimed against ethnic Russians and chrisitans first with a crazy jew (Lenin) and then with a psychopathic Georgian (Stalin) at the helm and a Jew as chief of the feared NKVD secret police and a Jew as chief of the Gulag system (Where Jews, I am sure thi is a pure cohencidence, was underrepresented as prisoners while being overrepresented among all higher types of positions in the Soviet communist party) - in fact Jews, as Ron Unz have shown, might very well be the biggestperpetrators of genocide per capita of the 20th century - and their hate for Putin is extremely strong and neurotic in it's monomanical focus on him and the crazed vengefulsness aginst the russians - Putin who they see as the mythical reincarnation of the Tsar who they, in a fit of historical revisionism much crazier than any serious holocaust denial - think was responsible for hundreds or thousands of pogroms where tens of thousands of Jews were killed - in reality pogroms in Russia or Poland was often Poles or Russians just going together in cooperatives and boycotting jews who had exploited them for centuries which was possible due to the wave of nationalism that swept europe in the latter half of the 19 th century, and meanwhile they western press at the time wrote hundreds of articles about the threat of death at the hands of crazed russians or poles 6.000.000 jews faced in Eastern Europe (I wonder why this number of 6.000.000 keep showing up, perhaps somebody knowlegable about kabbalah mysticism or the Talmud - in it's two main versions - have an idea - but it obviously has some legendary meaning for some jews).
This jewsih faction -w ho make up more than 50 % of the US cabinet (It's not far-fetched to think that Biden is apuppet for jewish intersts) will never let Russia get away with this.
I would be very surprised if they just let Russi ahave 30 % of Ukraine's territory and then leave it at that.
No, they will certainly arm and build up a real Ukrainean army with air defence (Since the Russians have shown themselves to be unable to perform SEAD or DEAD missions to any meaningful extent) even if it takes them five years, and they will never go for a peace agreement with Russia with Ukrainean fanatic elements being the ones who are in charge to a large degree, although Jewish oligarchs have the final say and are using fanatic but stupid Ukraineans for their ends, thinking they have a chance to win (forgetting that Russia do have nukes and, in my estimation at least - I donät want to boast but I was sure the invasion would happen seven weks in advance and ten days earlier I put the date down to one of three dates and were correct - will use them if they cannot get their way through in Ukraine in any other way - if the west only listened to what Russia says itäs clear they see a neutral, non-hostile Ukraine as an existential matter).
Western Jews will literally fight to the last Ukrainean. It's not like jews are known for caring very much about the welfare of other ethnic groups and they often do make deals with the most fanatic enemies of their enemies even if the enemies hate jews as well (See ISIS and Israel in Syria) and their ethnocentrism is extreme and their vengefulness is legendary.
I still think this has a 25-33 % chance of going nuclear in the end when the Ukraineans finally counterattack and will drive Russia back to at least east of the Dniepr which means that Russias probable plans for a landlocked Ukraine - in the end only can be achieved by threatening to or using nuclear weapons.
Posted by: Amadeus | Jun 12 2022 18:49 utc | 264
The fact is that the Russians owe zero to the fake "legality" of the West and its prostituted globalist institutions. The fact that Putin nevertheless is so legalistically scrupulous is vastly more than the Ukraine deserves.Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Jun 12 2022 17:59 utc | 263
It's not about Ukraine anymore. It's a war against NATO to break the US-dominated 'unipolar world'. So yes, Putin the lawyer is being very careful and legalistic, because a lot of countries are watching this, and there is a real opportunity for Russia and China, and friends, to finally break the curse and free the world.
Posted by: Kingsmeg | Jun 12 2022 19:04 utc | 265
bevin (88): Thank you for real Russian history and also clarification re: CRT. I wonder if teaching CRT divorced from real understanding of role of class and power structures is productive.
Posted by: lavieja | Jun 12 2022 19:17 utc | 267
June 11, #115: and then there's "post-colonialism."
Posted by: lavieja | Jun 12 2022 19:48 utc | 269
Very curious discourse with several topics.
First, what authority/legality allows Russia to go beyond the liberation of DLPRs? The genocide waged by Ukrainian government which was provided as one aspect of the invocation of Article 51. Genocide is the type of crime that gives Russia the right to pursue those guilty--and that would include those outside Ukraine's borders that abetted the crime.
Second, it's very clear most here have no clue as to what constitutes Marxism--it's NOT Socialism. It's how industrial capitalism makes it possible for socialism to occur, provided it can overcome financial capitalism--the power of Royalty and allied Rentiers.
Third, as Russia's President, Putin is the public figurehead but in reality is but one outstanding member of an outstanding team. Russian governance is as efficient as it is because of that team's ability. Over the last 22 years, lots of lessons were learned, some the hard way by making mistakes then correcting them. And the process continues. It would be very easy to prove the above if access to complete transcripts of key government meetings were available instead of just what Putin says during them. What enables me to assert the above are interviews and papers written by other team members that provide proof.
Now to see the remainder of today's commentary.
@267 "I wonder if teaching CRT divorced from real understanding of role of class and power structures is productive."
Probably not. The BLM leaders claimed to be Marxists. But they probably weren't proper Marxists. I wonder if they ever read Das Kapital.
Posted by: dh | Jun 12 2022 22:10 utc | 271
"Gilbert Doctorow is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College (1967), a past Fulbright scholar, and holder of a Ph.D. with honors in history from Columbia University (1975). After completing his studies, Mr. Doctorow pursued a business career focused on the USSR and Eastern Europe. For twenty-five years he worked for US and European multinationals in marketing and general management with regional responsibility. Doctorow is an American citizen and a long-time resident of Brussels, Belgium.
Any comments needed?
Posted by: ostro | Jun 12 2022 9:39 utc | 200"
Alas, due to too many years in Academia- the first thought this statement engenders is ...Logical Fallacy- Appeal to Authority. (Academic accolades waved for the masses may impress; less so for the initiated. Especially Harvard, Alma Mater of GWBush and other visionaries)
Posted by: AParadiseLost | Jun 12 2022 22:46 utc | 272
As I stated a week ago, The Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbas to the Dneiper line may or may not be a disaster, does not matter. Bernhard thinks the Ukrainian resistance will crumble in the Donbas by the end of month. That seem reasonable. Putin’s army gets to the Dnipier line end of July first of August. The line is anchored on the north with Kiev and the south Odessa. Putin’s troops will not be in a physical or logistical position to advance beyond the Dneiper until late fall or early winter.
A bloody winter siege of Kharkov, Kiev and Odessa is just what Putin wants. The hate that a multi-month siege of two or three metropolis is just what would engendered the kind of hate Putin needs Euro-Americans (Putin’s real enemies) to feel for Russians. His cleavage with the west will only be accomplished through a long war. So expect no lightening advance to victory, rather look to slow murderous destructive advance. Kharkov will be in ruins as will Odessa and most particularly Kiev-Russians must understand there are NO SUCH THING AS UKRAINIANS it is about genocide.
Posted by: Wobblie | Jun 13 2022 3:37 utc | 273
Wobblie | Jun 13 2022 3:37 utc | 273
So an immediate unconditional surrender is the only way to stop the bloodshed? The side which wins decides then about the cosequences.
Who refutes this surrender is responsible for the ongoing killing.
Posted by: Hausmeister | Jun 13 2022 4:04 utc | 274
Posted by: Wobblie | Jun 13 2022 3:37 utc | 273
No, it isn’t about genocide. The Russian government has no interest in obliterating the population of Ukraine. I don’t know how many Ukrainians have been killed in this war but it was clear from the first that the Russians have been pursuing strategies aimed at incorporating pro-Russian populations under their control and destabilising the Ukrainian (which is to say, as you point out, NATO) war effort. The fact that lots of Ukrainians are dying simply means that this is not an easy job to do, especially given that the Russians are trying to do it without unduly heavy expenditure of cash or personnel. The Russians also do not want to besiege cities for the same reason. They very probably will be obliged to in order to bring the war to a successful conclusion, and that will lead to the destruction of most of Ukraine apart from the Black Sea/Azov Sea coast and the Donetsk-Lugansk regions. But that is definitely not what the Russians want, and they have been trying very hard to avoid this. The people who want this genocidal outcome are NATO, who have tricked Zhelensky into bringing it about (assuming that he was not a useful idiot, which is possible).
Posted by: MFB | Jun 13 2022 8:56 utc | 275
"Never EVER do a deal with Washington!
It's not just its enemies like Qaddafi and Milosevic that it throws under the bus after they make concessions."
How right you are! And the next poor and sorry state with no malice toward the US whatsoever, who indeed believe themselves to be close US allies, that is nonetheless about to be tossed under the grinding bus wheels; the European Union!!
Posted by: Herman Boscolovitch | Jun 13 2022 11:03 utc | 276
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Jun 12 2022 16:53 utc | 261
You're welcome.
I could do this all day.
Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 13 2022 11:24 utc | 277
"I have said it before, but the hatred the US neocon elite - which is not white christian - has for Russia - even though this groiup took over Russia in the revolution of 1917 and institutued a terror machine aimed against ethnic Russians and chrisitans first with a crazy jew (Lenin) and then with a psychopathic Georgian (Stalin) at the helm and a Jew as chief of the feared NKVD secret police and a Jew as chief of the Gulag system (Where Jews, I am sure thi is a pure cohencidence, was underrepresented as prisoners while being overrepresented among all higher types of positions in the Soviet communist party) - in fact Jews, as Ron Unz have shown, might very well be the biggestperpetrators of genocide per capita of the 20th century "
Posted by: Amadeus | Jun 12 2022 18:49 utc | 264
Don't think that burying this judeophobic and anti-soviet right-wing tirade within a wall of text will prevent it from being noticed.
What color are jews, according to you?
Because all the Zionist conspirators and usurpers I get wind of, are pasty white.
You cannot convert to an ethnicity. You can convert to Judaism. Therefore, "jew" is not an ethnic descriptor. It's a religious descriptor.
Vladimir Ilyich Ulianov was baptised in 1870. His father was Orthodox and his mother was Lutheran if at all religious.
So your claim that he was "a jew" is simply nonsensical.
Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 13 2022 11:45 utc | 278
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 12 2022 15:47 utc | 254
Posted by: Arganthonios | Jun 13 2022 12:01 utc | 279
The comments to this entry are closed.
Posted by: james | Jun 12 2022 2:49 utc | 155
Brilliant summary james ...
Posted by: K | Jun 12 2022 5:07 utc | 174
Seconded, nice hypothesis for the thus-far inconclusive nature of the Syrian conflict.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 12 2022 9:55 utc | 201