Mark your calendar: Here are the biggest, most newsworthy dates to watch in 2020

2020 promises to be a consequential political year. 

There's a pending impeachment trial and an election that is intimately tied to it. The economy is slowing, while our nation continues to make sense of wider cultural changes. 

How will 2020 shake out in Arizona?

While there are sure to be wild cards, other important events are sure enough to put on your calendar. Here are a few (and why they matter):

January: What will the U.S. Senate do?

The U.S. House voted along party lines to impeach President Donald Trump. But it's unclear when – or whether – impeachment articles will make it to the Senate. Congressional leaders are still arguing over how the trial might proceed. 

It's a longshot that the Republican-domnated Senate will have enough votes to remote Trump from office. But the political theater will probably overshadow everything else in Congress this month, as both sides jockey before the first presidential primary elections begin in February. 

Whatever happens (or doesn't) this month is certain to play a role in Arizona's 2020 election. How far down ballot depends on how big the drama gets and for how long it is sustained.

Jan. 13: Where is Arizona headed?

Gov. Doug Ducey will open the 2020 regular legislative session with his State of the State address. Later that week, he will probably reveal his proposed budget for the fiscal year beginning in July.

State government is rolling in dough, with a sustained increase in revenue growth. Ducey has a strong record of getting what he wants in the state budget. What he proposes will be consequential, particularly with respect to K-12 education.

In the past few years, the state has gone a long way in replenishing education funding streams that were cut to cope with the recession. Most have been restored or are in the process of being restored.

What Ducey proposes will not only shape what the Legislature ultimately enacts for K-12 education funding. It might affect whether there is an initiative on the ballot in November to increase taxes for education, and its fate if there is.

March 17: Who will Democrats choose?

There should be a clear Democratic front-runner by the time the presidential primaries reach Arizona, given that 14 other states, including California, are holding their election two weeks earlier as part of Super Tuesday.

But who will that be? And will Arizonans buck the trend? Will we favor a moderate like Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg or Amy Klobuchar? Or a torchbearer of the liberal wing in Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders?

Let this be an early reminder to independent voters: You must switch party affiliation by Feb. 18 to cast a ballot in the Democratic Presidential Preference Election. (Arizona Republicans voted to cancel their presidential primary with Trump running for a second term.)

June: Will 'dreamers' get a respite?

The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on President Trump’s decision to end DACA by June, a program that allows children brought to this country illegally as children to work, drive, attend college and otherwise remain in the country. The ruling could affect nearly 700,000 – about 25,000 of which are in Arizona.

During oral arguments this fall, the court seemed split, with conservative justices siding with Trump and liberal justices against him. If the court rules that Trump was within his powers to terminate DACA, it will set up a dicey political decision for the administration to continue or end the program, just months before the 2020 election.

July: How did teacher pay fare?

This is the last year of the governor’s 20 by 2020 pay raises, and so far, the amount teachers have pocketed has varied widely among districts. Not all teachers are on track to receive the 20% raise lawmakers intended. 

Teacher pay has improved since 2017, though Arizona’s average salaries remain well below the national average. And low pay is not the only thing fueling a chronic teacher shortage in the state. 

But this year’s salary figures, which are typically released in July, could become a key campaign issue, particularly if an education funding measure makes it to the November ballot.

July 2: What's on my ballot? (part 1)

Some measures vying for the November ballot may look familiar.

A coalition led by former state Attorney General Terry Goddard is attempting to ban "dark money" or anonymous campaign contributions. The effort was tossed off the ballot in 2018.

There also may be an initiative – possibly two – to legalize marijuana. Voters narrowly rejected the idea in 2016, but continued shifts in demographics and public opinion have only emboldened supporters that are backed by a powerful pot industry.

Then there's education funding. At least one coalition has pledged to put forth a measure that would boost revenue for K-12, community colleges and universities. Meanwhile, lawmakers may push to revive a more modest sales-tax increase that stalled this past session. 

What will voters ultimately be asked? We'll know a lot more by July 2, when signatures to qualify measures are due.

July 17: What about that APS rate hike?

Arizona Public Service needs a clean start. The utility has been accused of overcharging, misdirecting customers to the wrong rate plans and cutting power to thousands who couldn't afford higher bills – despite raking in hefty profits and contributing handsomely in recent years to the campaigns of its favored regulators.

Will there be enough carrots in a proposed rate increase – in which APS is seeking an additional $184 million – to smooth the waters with dissatisfied customers? Or will the case raise more questions about the utility's business practices and its relationship with the Corporation Commission?

Public hearings, which are scheduled to begin July 17, should give us a pretty good indication.

August: What's on my ballot? (part 2)

Submitting petitions to get measures on the ballot is one thing. Qualifying them in August is another.

Two developments make the task more difficult this year:

The number of valid signatures required to qualify initiatives and constitutional amendments has gone up considerably because it is tied to the number of ballots cast in the 2016 election.

That means 237,645 signatures from registered voters are needed for an initiative, 87,000 more than in 2018. And 356,467 signatures are required for a constitutional amendment, 130,500 more than the last election.

For another, opponents of an initiative have a strong tool with Arizona's Strikeout Law, which invalidates the signatures of all voters who sign a petition if a paid or out-of-state petition circulator doesn’t show up when subpoenaed to court. The law has been upheld by the state Supreme Court.

The law played a role in keeping a couple of initiatives off the 2018 ballot, including Goddard's Outlaw Dark Money measure. Will it in 2020?

Aug. 4: Will one race change the Senate?

The race to represent Legislative District 15 in north Phoenix and Cave Creek looks to get expensive and personal. And the winner of the Aug. 4 primary election there could change the dynamics of the Arizona Senate.

Incumbent state Sen. Heather Carter, a moderate Republican, is being challenged by Rep. Nancy Barto, a conservative, in Legislative District 15. The race pits two GOP stalwarts who have clashed over various issues, from exempting student vaccinations and regulating vaping products to allowing loaded guns in vehicles on school campuses.

The seat is especially important to the balance of power in the Senate, where Republicans enjoy a slight majority.

Aug. 26: Another push for equal rights? 

Denied a ratification vote on the Equal Rights Amendment in the Arizona Legislature last March, many Arizona women will be out in force Aug. 26 when the nation and state celebrate the 100th anniversary of the 19th Amendment, which cleared the way for U.S. women to vote.

Led by “ERA Task Force AZ,” “AZ Celebrates the 19th Amendment” and other women’s rights organizations, expect a new push for ERA ratification in the Legislature and on issues such as equal pay. You can also anticipate pushback from conservative men and women who believe the Constitution already enshrines women’s rights and that the ERA is an effort to supersede equality of opportunity with equality of outcomes.

No doubt the debate will be vigorous. Meanwhile, all Arizonans can cherish what is now a widely admired achievement – the right of women to vote and Arizona’s early support among states for it.

September: What solutions did Pinal find?

The Pinal Active Management Area doesn’t have enough water for everyone to last for the next 100 years. So, what are cities, farmers and developers going to do about it?

A grass-roots committee has formed to find solutions. It has an aggressive work schedule and hopes to have a slew of recommendations – including possible legislative and state rule changes – by September. 

Their work is worth watching for its implications on future residential growth and farming, which are sure to impact areas far beyond the Pinal AMA.

Fall: Where is water conservation headed?

Conservation alone won’t solve Arizona’s water problems. But using less water is a critical piece of the puzzle. Unfortunately, the Phoenix, Pinal and Santa Cruz Active Management Areas are still playing by the same conservation rules they set in 1999.

New groundwater management plans should be finalized for these three areas later this year, though the provisions won't go into effect until 2023.

Meanwhile, stakeholders have begun discussing more comprehensive conservation plans for all five AMAs, which are expected to be adopted in 2023 and effective in 2025. Committees should have laid much of the groundwork for them by year’s end. 

Nov. 3: Are we really a battleground?

Arizona will get a lot of election attention this year. We are a battleground state for the presidency and the U.S. Senate. Parties are targeting three of Arizona’s congressional districts. There will likely be several sharply contested ballot measures.

However, the results in a handful of legislative districts might have a greater influence on the state’s future than these more high-profile contests that will get all the attention.

Democrats have not controlled the Arizona Senate or House for many years. Now they are only a few seats away from doing so.

If the party can switch control in even one chamber, it would greatly change the legislative agenda.

Nov. 6-8: Can NASCAR revive here?

If this was 2005, Phoenix scoring the NASCAR championship would have been the talk of the town. But TV viewership and raceday attendance has been on a slow but steady decline since then. 

What is the future of the racing series? Can it turn over a new leaf in the desert? If Phoenix can help orchestrate a comeback, it'll definitely be a story worth telling.

And, hey, if the Arizona Diamondbacks don't end up making it to the World Series, as one analyst says is possible in 2020, this may be the only championship our city will see this year.

This is an opinion of The Arizona Republic's editorial board. What do you think? Send us a letter to the editor to weigh in.