3 confirmed cases of U.K. variant of COVID-19 tied to U-M's Ann Arbor campus

At least three women with ties to the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor now have confirmed cases of the contagious B.1.1.7 coronavirus variant believed to spread faster than other strains of SARS-CoV-2, state health officials said Thursday.

The results of genetic sequencing of five more tests from people who were in close contact with the initial case of the more transmissible strain, also known as the United Kingdom variant, are still pending. 

“We are watching this situation as closely as possible,” said Dr. Juan Luis Marquez, medical director of the Washtenaw County Health Department. “And we ask everyone to continue to do everything they can to prevent transmission — mask, distance, avoid crowds or gatherings, clean your hands frequently, and follow isolation or quarantine guidance carefully.”

Michigan's first case of the mutated form of the virus was detected Saturday in a Washtenaw County woman connected to U-M. 

The state's patient zero had a negative coronavirus test two days before she traveled Jan. 3 from the U.K. to the U.S., said Susan Ringler Cerniglia, a spokeswoman for the Washtenaw County Health Department. 

The woman also tested negative for the virus on Jan. 4 and Jan. 6. She got a positive coronavirus test result on Jan. 8 and began isolation on that date.  

Most of the seven people who've contracted the virus since having close contact with the Washtenaw County woman live in connected households, Ringler Cerniglia said, and are also in quarantine.

In a news release, the university said Thursday that all eight people have either no symptoms or mild symptoms and their close contacts have been identified, tested and are currently in quarantine.

“While not unexpected, this means being even more vigilant with the public health measures that are known to prevent the spread of COVID-19,” said Preeti Malani, U-M’s chief health officer. 

University health officials recommend that all undergraduate and graduate students in the Ann Arbor area — even those taking classes remotely — be tested weekly for coronavirus to help contain its spread. But health officials say that is especially important for those who live in group settings like residence halls, co-ops, fraternities and sororities as well as those who have a recent travel history.

“Because this variant is more contagious, we have been expecting more B.1.1.7 cases following Michigan’s first case being identified on Saturday,” said Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, the state's chief medical executive in a statement released late Thursday.

“Michiganders have followed the science and worked hard to slow the spread of COVID-19, resulting in dramatic improvements in our case numbers, deaths, hospitalizations and positivity rates. Now we need to redouble our efforts by continuing to wear masks properly, socially distance, avoid crowds, washing hand frequently, and make plans to get the safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine once it is our turn.”

Health officials acknowledged that it is possible there are more B.1.1.7 cases in Michigan that have not been identified.

This strain of the virus is not more deadly and isn't known to make people more severely ill than other previously identified strains, but B.1.1.7 does spread more easily.

"It appears to be about 50% more transmissible, or able to spread 50% faster," said Dr. Adam Lauring, an associate professor of infectious diseases and microbiology at the University of Michigan told the Free Press for last week. "One way to think about it is if one person generally infects two other people on average with coronavirus, with the B.1.1.7 variant, that one person might infect three other people on average. And so, scaled up, that can lead to much faster growth of the virus. 

"What I always come back to is this: If it spreads faster, that means that there's going to be more people who are going to get infected and that means that there's going to be more people who are going to get sick and be hospitalized. And that could mean that there'd be more people who die.

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"So even though it's not really lethal on an individual level, it spreads faster. It's going to cause more infections and more serious illness and more deaths, so I think that's the concerning thing," said Lauring.

First detected in the U.K. in September, the B.1.1.7 variant has driven case rates, hospitalizations and deaths so high, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are in lockdown. Prime Minister Boris Johnson told journalists Thursday that it's unclear when restrictions might be lifted, the Guardian reported. 

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 144 known cases nationally in 20 states as of Wednesday, and warned that based on transmission models, the U.K. variant could become the predominant strain circulating in the U.S. in March. 

The vaccines on the market now are believed to be effective against the U.K. variant of the virus. Research is ongoing, but Pfizer released new data Wednesday to support that claim.

If the B.1.1.7 variant gains a foothold here, substantially driving up COVID-19 case rates, hospitalizations and deaths in the weeks ahead, it could trigger new public health orders and restrictions, said Robert Gordon, director of the state Department of Health and Human Services.

"We have always said that we look at multiple factors. I think we will continue to do that. ... There's no cookbook for identifying when to move" to enforce tighter public health restrictions, Gordon said. "I will say, obviously, we are very concerned about the variant, and so we will be observing trends as we move forward."

State epidemiologist Sarah Lyon-Callo said 90% or more of the state's 16 and older population will have to be immunized to protect the masses from the more contagious variant. 

Instead of a plan to immunize about 70% of the state's population ages 16 and older with COVID-19 vaccines by the end of the year, which is about 5.6 million people, the goal post has moved, Lyon-Callo said, because of the variant. 

Contact Kristen Shamus: kshamus@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter @kristenshamus.