Joe Biden won in Pennsylvania, flipping a state Donald Trump won in 2016.

Taking Biden at face value about Michigan and Wisconsin — where, for what it's worth (not that much), the exit poll data looks pretty good for him and he came in with a significant polling lead — here's where the map goes: If Biden wins those two, plus Maine, Nevada and Arizona, but nothing else, he's at 269 electoral votes. Which means he's a Nebraska-02 (where he's currently leading) away from hitting 270 on the number, WITHOUT Pennsylvania and Maine's 2nd District.

One thing to keep in mind as we've seen Biden's polling numbers vanish in states like Florida and North Carolina: His leads were much larger in Michigan and Wisconsin, and a bit larger in Pennsylvania. So he has a little cushion there to work with.

We're not going to get a call out of Pennsylvania.

With the caveat that we still know very, very little about Pennsylvania, let's zoom in on one county: Washington County, which is in the pro-Trump western part of the state. Trump wanted to drive more votes out of it; Biden wanted to cut his losses. One smart PA Dem strategist told me he wanted Biden to get to 40% in the county.

According to the NYT, more than 98% of estimated votes there have been reported. Here's the count:

2020: Trump: 70,760 (61.01%) Biden: 43,949 (37.89%)

2016: Trump: 61,386 (60.51%) Clinton: 36,322 (35.80%)

So, assuming NYT's 98%+ reporting estimate is correct, Trump got more raw votes out of Washington County like he wanted — quite a bit more. And Biden did cut his losses compared to Clinton. But Biden didn't get to 40% like the strategist wanted (and which Obama got beyond twice).

Getting at the “red mirage” idea, if we don’t get Atlanta and big GA burbs, and some major blue areas of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania it’s easy to see Trump’s lead holding for now or staying closer than they should end up. Same for GA senate races Charlie 

Holly My point in mentioning Montgomery County and Philly is that if those places aren't reporting all their votes, the red mirage scenario is still very much in place if the president chose that route.

Update: Philadelphia officials tell me they will report more mail-in ballot results between midnight and 1 a.m. The next batch will be reported at 9 a.m.

(I am deleting my post earlier that said Philly officials said they were not reporting more mail-in results tonight, because it appears to have been based on incomplete information. I apologize.)

Charlie We haven't heard yet from Allegheny County, which is also a top source of Democratic votes. But look, this is what PA elected officials told us could happen for months. We may not know results in PA for days.

Per Holly's point, keep in mind Montgomery County is a giant, the third most populous county in the state. It delivered a big margin for Clinton in 2016.

Update on Election Day in Philadelphia from the DA's office here:

"As of 9:00 p.m. on Tuesday, 68 incidents were reported to the Election Task Force and 67 incidents were peacefully resolved. The vast majority of reported incidents involved concerns about unlawful electioneering or interference at polling sites. Most issues involving misunderstandings or miscommunication about voting rules and laws were resolved by Election Task Force prosecutors by phone, and DAO prosecutors and detectives also responded to investigate incidents at polling sites in all six Philadelphia Police divisions. Several incidents will require follow-up by investigators."

For example, Holly, one example from Jen O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s campaign manager, that implied they were still counting on Pa could be seen in this quote. “If we just win one state between North Carolina and Georgia, then we could lose Michigan and Florida and still get over 270 electoral votes.”

Holly If Biden loses Fla, North Carolina and Georgia, his so-called greater Midwest certainly includes winning Pennsylvania. That’s a point that they made. Losing Pa would seem to require picking up something big elsewhere.

Christopher On the expectation-setting remarked upon earlier from the Biden campaign about Florida, what are we to make of the fact that the campaign told me this a few days ago about Pennsylvania — that "we can win without Pennsylvania," though they didn't think they'd need to?

Report that just went out from the Pennsylvania Election Protection Coalition on issues today in the state:

"Among the issues: Several polling places opened late. High turnout meant long lines, which remain active at some locations. (Any eligible voter in line by 8 p.m. is permitted to vote.) Voters spoiled mail-in ballots at high rates, and some poll workers were confused about how to process those ballots. Non-English-speaking residents faced language access issues at a few polling locations. Some voters expressed concern about imposing constables, others reported feeling harassed. Some precincts reported mechanical problems or ran out of supplies.   While all of these issues are concerning, none of them are too far out of the ordinary for issues that arise during any normal election year — and this year was far from normal, with many expecting the worst in terms of potential disruptions and possible conflict."

Both campaigns have armies of attorneys at the ready for PA and other states. A lengthy post-Election court battle is the scenario Biden's camp has so fiercely tried to avoid by expanding their map to 17 states.

Mail-in numbers in PA:

• 1,658,804 cast by registered Democrats
• 599,494 cast by registered Republicans
• 284,931 cast by those registered as no affiliation/third party/other
• About 548,000 mail-in ballots have not been returned as of now — but if they are postmarked by Election Day (or there is not a "preponderance of evidence" they were sent after) and received within three days, the state Supreme Court said they must be counted
 

30,000+ mail ballots — a teeny tiny fraction of the 2.5 million received as of this morning in the state — were just reported in Pennsylvania. We may be entering the brief "blue mirage" portion of the night, where Biden deceptively looks like he's doing well because counties first report the mail ballots they've been counting all day, and Biden supporters disproportionately voted by mail.

I feel like my job this entire night might be explaining why #nothingmatters in PA.

Polls close in 15 minutes in Pennsylvania.

Charlie Many voters in Philly and the suburbs don't like fracking and want to ban it. That's why it was interesting to see Trump rehash his line on fracking in Bucks County during a rally on Saturday. But in western Pennsylvania, as well as the northeast, it's more popular and has led to a boom in some areas that have been struggling economically for a long time. Biden wants to cut his losses in those places (and maybe even flip a county here or there), so that's why you see him reiterate again and again that he doesn't want to ban fracking. Trump, meanwhile, is trying to run up the score in those pro-fracking areas that already like him.

How much does fracking register as an issue across the state in southeastern PA, in Philly and its suburbs?

Anita And in a sign of how important PA is to the race, Biden tried to fend off Trump's attacks over fracking over and over. During Biden's final stop in the state yesterday at a drive-in rally in Pittsburgh, following his barnstorm of the state with his running mate Kamala Harris and their spouses, he said for the zillionth time that he doesn't want to ban fracking.

Holly Trump's team really focused on Biden's fracking comments for the last couple weeks, convinced that they could make all the difference in Pennsylvania. They had ads, social media, conference calls, press releases, you name it on, all on fracking. They think even if it moved a few votes it could be enough to win the state.

Anita Trump aides were claiming high turnout in Republican areas in Luzerne, which is one of the three counties that flipped from supporting Obama to Trump in 2016.

Sen. Bob Casey — and local Democratic Party leaders — also said there was massive turnout in the Philadelphia suburbs, which would be a win for Biden.

You have to beware with these reports, though. During Election Day in 2016, Democrats reported good turnout in Philadelphia, and Clinton actually pulled out almost as many raw votes out of Philly as Obama in 2012. But what they didn't realize was that Trump was surging in rural parts of the state and flipping some swing counties like the ones mentioned above.

What I want to know is the number out of Philly -- what margin is Joe Biden taking out of the state's largest city? While Hillary Clinton dominated in Philadelphia, winning 82%, she only took a 475,000-vote edge out of the city, compared Barack Obama’s 492,000 vote advantage in 2012. That made a difference in a state that was ultimately decided by roughly 45,000 votes.

Anita What do you want to know? I don't know where to begin! I talked to several elected officials and voter rights groups today, and everyone reported high turnout, particularly in Philadelphia. While I had less reporting on this, high turnout was also reported in the red parts of the state, too. To take one random anecdote, my dad claimed there was a four-hour line in one polling place in my home county, York (a very conservative area).

Holly Ready to hear what you have to say on Pennsylvania! I think it's the state to watch. It feels like the new Florida. Sorry Marc

Now we're talking.

Let's continue our tour around the Electoral College. When do we get to talk some PENNSYLVANIA :eagles:? After all, it's only at the center of the political universe tonight.

Charlie and PA, MI, OH & IL are on track to lose a seat!

Telling tweet from election law expert Rick Hasen: "Biggest surprise of the election watch for me so far: Florida's election administration doesn't make my top 3 of places I'm worried about. (PA, GA, MI)" 

Good evening from Philadelphia! I'm totally zeroed in on Pennsylvania tonight. Election officials were not permitted by law to begin counting mail-in ballots in the state until today, so we may not know the presidential election results here for days. Then again, Sen. Bob Casey told me he thought the race could potentially be called in Pennsylvania tonight. So first, I'm looking to see what exactly we learn tonight and how quickly local governments across the state are able to process mail ballots. I just got off the phone with the City Commissioners office in Philadelphia, and they told me that all the machines that process mail ballots are up and running and that things are going smoothly.

Secondly, I'm looking to see if we get a sense tonight of how many "naked ballots" there are in the state. You might have heard of this: In Pennsylvania, if you don't submit your mail ballot with the proper envelope, it's called a naked ballot — and it will get tossed out. Earlier this year, one election official said the rule could result in upwards of 100,000 mail-in ballots being thrown out. Democrats, including Biden's campaign, spent a ton of money educating voters about this rule to prevent that. So will that number end up being less than 100,000, or not?

Hi everyone from D.C.! I'm watching to see what happens in Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest states which seems to be the most crucial for a potential Trump victory given the recent polling and his path to winning in 2016....I'm also watching to see what emerges as the chief issue for voters: the economy (which historically has favored Trump), or his administration's handling of Covid (where he has been far weaker in the polls). And then, like Anita, I am watching to see how POTUS reacts. If we do not know the outcome of the election tonight, is he cool, or does he try to claim victory regardless?