Cold with Light Snow Possible

Jonathan Carr
By November 26, 2021 22:23

Cold with Light Snow Possible

Discussion: We can certainly feel the pressure gradient tonight between the NE US departing low and SE US approaching high. Stiff flow out of the W/NW and that’s making it feel colder than it already really is. This is the cold injection for the weekend and will make for a cold Saturday, especially AM hours. The two areas of energy, off the N stream, that I’ve been referencing as 1 (initial S branch) and 2 (trailing N branch) have trended apart in timing. The initial S branch is racing ahead (moving over NJ late-Saturday night into Sunday morning). The trailing N branch then doesn’t come through until late-Sunday night into early Monday morning. Each of these pieces of energy could produce anything from flurries to light snow. Should be mostly conversational snow with NWNJ possibly stacking up a few inches. Had these pieces of energy timed closer together, there would have been more interaction resulting in more of a singular event snowier precipitation shield. But as of now it only looks like very light snow either night. Anything that falls during the day will likely be rain and SENJ could get in on rain even overnight. We’ll moderate back warmer for this coming week but likely head back colder for next weekend into the following week. ENSO cycle analysis and a few N hemispheric features suggest the second week of December being favorable for snow system development. That doesn’t mean there will be a snow storm, it’s just a period we can’t rule snow out for yet (like this coming warmer week).

Saturday (Nov 27) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 30s for NNJ elevations. The rest of NJ should only reach the lower-40s. Skies should be mostly clear. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s as light snow flurries, possibly a snow shower, move through (NWNJ favored over SENJ).

Sunday (Nov 28) high temperatures should range from near-40 to near-50 from N to S. Skies should be cloudier and colder for NNJ and clearer and milder for SNJ. Snow/rain showers could linger around during AM hours before warming by early afternoon. More light snow is possible overnight as temps fall back into the 20s/30s. NWNJ is again favored over SENJ but only light accumulations are expected.

An early look at next week indicates highs in the 40s/50s (NNJ/SNJ) and lows in the 30s. A hair mild to close out November and start December but it looks like we’ll be knocked back colder again by next weekend. Casually following the second week of December as a period favorable for winter storm development.  

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Jonathan Carr
By November 26, 2021 22:23