The month ahead

The monthly outlook is based on output from global forecasting models and our own analysis.

May weather: Warm but mixed weather overall

Forecast issued 01/05/2024

Temperature

Above average

Precipitation

Close to average

1/5 to 7/5

Mostly unsettled

Showers or longer spells of rain continue to be a risk throughout the week. It will likely be the wettest in the southern half of the UK, where thundery conditions are possible. During cloudy and wet periods temperatures will be held back. However, in sunny spells, it will feel warm and humid. 

8/5 to 14/5

Quite warm and becoming drier

After a mixed start drier conditions are forecast to develop. Nonetheless, spells of showery rain remain possible and in the south it could turn thundery at times. Temperatures generally above the average, possibly pushing well into the mid 20Cs at times.

15/5 to 31/5

Mixed but warm weather dominates [Forecast confidence is low]

Temperatures are expected to be above average for the period as a whole, with the potential for very warm weather at times. However, it may be quite cool early on. All regions can expect showery spells of rain which could be heavy and thundery at times, particularly in the south. Despite that, there should also be a fair amount of fine weather.

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

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