Georgia at a crossroads

12 mins read

May 1, 2024 7:11 am CET

GOOD MORNING, and happy International Workers’ Day. We’re celebrating by delivering a packed Playbook!

Commemorating a different kind of union: Today is also the 20th anniversary of the European Union’s biggest enlargement, when 10 countries, including seven young democracies of the former Eastern Bloc, cemented their place in the West.

In a newsy interview with Playbook, the EU’s trade and economy chief Valdis Dombrovskis celebrates enlargement as a success “both geopolitically and economically,” and calls for the EU to take the next step with Moldova and Ukraine in June. He also warns about the threats posed by Russia’s war and a new subsidy race that is fueling growth inequalities.

Against that backdrop: But first, to Georgia, where thousands of people have taken to the streets in a bid to push their government out of the Kremlin’s clutches and into the EU’s embrace.

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GEORGIA AT A CROSSROADS

CRACKDOWN ON PRO-EU PROTESTERS: Tens of thousands of people, who were protesting a controversial Putin-style “foreign agent” law being rammed through parliament by the ruling Georgian Dream party, were forced to run from authorities through the streets of Tbilisi last night, reports POLITICO’s Gabriel Gavin, who is on the ground in the capital.

Stifling people power: Outside the national parliament, riot police charged crowds of peaceful, EU-flag-waving demonstrators, who’d gathered in opposition to plans to force NGOs, campaign groups and media outlets to register as “foreign agents” if they receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad. Georgia’s parliamentarians are expected to vote in favor of the bill at a second reading later today.

Sound familiar? The Georgian Dream proposals are reminiscent of President Vladimir Putin’s moves to stifle dissent and suffocate civil society in Russia.

What’s at stake — Georgia’s EU prospects: Brussels in December granted Tbilisi EU candidate status, raising the hopes of the four-in-five Georgians who consistently tell pollsters they want to join the Union. Yet, some fear Tbilisi is moving closer to Moscow under Georgian Dream, with the government ramming through draconian laws that undermine any chance at EU membership. The Putin-style foreign agent bill is “incompatible with European values,” the EU has said.

Last night’s violence marks a sharp escalation, after weeks of public demonstrations against the controversial proposals as they work their way through parliament. Police deployed tear gas, water cannons, shields and batons, and made several arrests, Gabriel writes in to report (after washing the tear gas from his own eyes). Levan Khabeishvili, the chairman of the UNM Party, the largest opposition grouping, was reportedly detained and posted a picture of himself looking badly beaten.

Crunch visit: The footage of the violent crackdown against peaceful protesters will be front of mind for the EU’s enlargement policy chief, DG NEAR boss Gert Jan Koopman, who lands in Georgia this morning for a crucial visit.

Difficult choices: The Commission and EU governments made a conscious choice to grant Georgia accession status, seeking to give the country more impetus to enact crucial rule-of-law reforms and nurture its fledgling democracy. But how long will the EU maintain that approach amid concerns Georgian Dream is actively undermining accession?

Attitudes in Brussels appear to be hardening: German MEP Viola von Cramon-Taubadel, a member of the European Parliament foreign affairs committee, told POLITICO that Koopman should take a tough line with the government in the wake of the crackdown. “All the criteria that Georgia was supposed to meet were not met, and this new escalation is clearly against all the civil standards Georgia was supposed to uphold.”

Read more from Gabriel Gavin and Dato Parulava.

ENLARGEMENT ANNIVERSARY

DOMBROVSKIS LOOKS BACK AT 20 YEARS ENLARGEMENT ‘SUCCESS,’ WARNS OF NEW THREATS: It’s been 20 years since the historic 2004 EU enlargement, when Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia joined the club. To mark the anniversary, Playbook spoke to Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis.

The verdict: “Overall it has been a success, both geopolitically and economically,” the trade and economics chief said. “It has made the EU a stronger, bigger global player. And it firmly placed the new member states within the Western democratic world.”

But it’s not all sunshine and rainbows: Dombrovskis cautioned about clouds on the horizon. Economic convergence has paused recently. And the EU needs to mind growth inequalities, he reckons, if it wants to maintain popular support for the joint project among its member countries.

“We are facing competitiveness challenges,” Dombrovskis said. “We are facing the green and digital transformation of our economies … and it’s very important that in this process we are not leaving countries and regions behind.”

Subsidies could exacerbate inequalities: One dilemma, Dombrovskis said, is that competing with American and Chinese subsidies risks tearing apart the single market’s level playing field. “Not all countries have equal possibilities. Countries in the south and countries in the east will not be able to subsidize their companies as massively as Germany or France.”

Task for the next Commission: Dombrovskis said the EU needs to look at Union-wide funding instruments to ensure a level playing field. “From my point of view,” he told me, “the more flexibility there is on state aid, the more flexibility there needs to be for redistributions through the EU budget.”

Speaking of the next Commission: Dombrovskis told Playbook the EU should appoint a Central or Eastern European leader to one of its top jobs after the June election. “If you look at most of the top jobs and even also at the managerial level in the EU institutions, actually the Central-Eastern European region is still underrepresented,” he said.

WHAT ABOUT THE NEXT ENLARGEMENT? Dombrovskis wants the EU to wrap up negotiations on the enlargement framework with Moldova and Ukraine quickly — with a target of the June European Council summit. “The world is watching,” he said. “Now is not the time to dither.”

The countries that were left behind: Dombrovskis argued the 2004 enlargement was possible in part because it happened during a short period when Russia was less authoritarian. In the “Baltic states, we used this geopolitical window of opportunity, soon after regaining independence, towards integration in the EU and NATO,” Dombrovskis said. But some countries were left behind “in the gray zone, between Russia and the West.”

All eyes on EU: Europe needs to stand up for its values or risk more aggression down the line, Dombrovskis warned. “Other authoritarian regimes are watching how the West is reacting on Russia’s invasion against Ukraine and this will also shape their thinking and attitudes towards the collective West.”

Outfoxing the Kremlin: The commissioner argued it is vital for the EU to stand up for its values to deter future aggressors — which should include being “more systematic” in fighting back against disinformation and outside interference in democratic processes.

EYE ON MOLDOVA

SPEAKING OF ENLARGEMENT — PUMP THE GAS, MOLDOVA SAYS: Cristina Gherasimov, the Moldovan deputy prime minister for European integration, told POLITICO’s Barbara Moens that the EU must maintain the enlargement momentum as her country heads to the polls for a presidential election and a referendum on EU membership on October 20.

Moldovans need hope: “Showing to our citizens that things continue developing in Brussels — as a reflection of the political commitments in Brussels, but also of EU member states — is very important for us as deliverables before the presidential elections and the referendum,” Gherasimov said.

On the right track: The EU opened membership talks with Moldova and Ukraine in December. Now they’re waiting for the 27 European capitals to agree on the negotiating frameworks that set the guidelines and basic principles for their accession talks before negotiations can formally start. Gherasimov says Moldova is doing everything it can to move the process forward.

But it needs help: Russian propaganda and disinformation is ramping up ahead of the October votes, including claims that Moldova could, like Ukraine, be invaded if it chooses European integration. “Therefore, it’s so important to continue showing that things are moving also from the Brussels side,” Gherasimov said.

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IN OTHER NEWS

TRUMP SPEAKS: Former (and potentially future) U.S. President Donald Trump has given an interview to Time. Asked about his comment that he “wouldn’t give a penny” to Ukraine if he was reelected, Trump seemed to hedge, saying: “I wouldn’t give unless Europe starts equalizing. … If Europe is not going to pay, why should we pay? They’re much more greatly affected. We have an ocean in between us. They don’t.”

GERMAN FAR RIGHT SHRUGS OFF ‘WITCH HUNT’: Allegations of espionage and undue Russia and China influence against Alternative for Germany politicians have thrown into doubt the party’s long ascent in German politics. But, as James Angelos reports, the reports don’t appear to have troubled fervent supporters in the former East Germany.

Nothing to see: If anything, the sensational allegations seem to have deepened loyalty to the far-right party, James discovered on a visit to Magdeburg where AfD supporters aired grievances against German decline, migration, and the mainstream media. “I believe it’s a witch hunt,” one said of the allegations. “They want to defame the AfD.”

DISABILITY EMPLOYMENT GUARANTEE: On the occasion of International Workers’ Day, the European Disability Forum is calling on the EU to support the rights of people with disabilities with a “European Disability Employment and Skills Guarantee.”

**POLITICO is back at the 2024 Milken Global Conference. We’ll again be your eyes and ears at the 27^th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles from May 5-8 with exclusive daily reporting in our Global Playbook newsletter. Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground, covering the biggest moments, behind-the-scenes buzz and on-stage insights from global leaders. Subscribe today.**

AGENDA

— Ceremony to mark 20th anniversary of 2004 EU enlargement. Watch.

— Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is in Nicosia, Cyprus; delivers a speech on the 20th anniversary of Cyprus’ accession to the EU at 5 p.m. Watch. Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides also participates.

— European Parliament President Roberta Metsola is in Malta; participates in an event to mark the 20th anniversary of Malta joining the EU.

— Commission Executive Vice President Margrethe Vestager is in Copenhagen; delivers a keynote speech at the Danish Chamber of Commerce.

— Commission Executive Vice President Maroš Šefčovič is in Bratislava; participates in gala event to mark the 20th anniversary of Slovakia’s accession to the EU.

— Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski is in Cieszyn, Poland; participates in an event to commemorate the 20th anniversary of Poland’s membership in the EU.

— Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn is in Dubai, United Arab Emirates; delivers a keynote speech at the conference “Europe: The opportunity for global investors.”

— International Workers’ Day.

BRUSSELS CORNER

WEATHER: High of 24C, sunny (take advantage of the warmest day of the week!)

LABOR DAY: Expect parties and protests to mark the International Workers’ Day bank holiday in Brussels today. The ABVV trade union is holding its annual party and there’s a barbecue and flea market in Saint-Gilles.

TRAVEL PSA — CHARLEROI AIRPORT STRIKE: Passengers have been warned to expect disruptions after trade unions confirmed airport employees will proceed with a 24-hour strike on Thursday.

FIRE AT THE CENTER MONNAIE: A fire broke out in an old ventilation unit at the former Brussels administrative center at Place de la Monnaie and Place De Brouckère, which is undergoing major renovation, on Tuesday morning. Firefighters quickly brought it under control and no workers were hurt (though some had to be airlifted by helicopter off the roof of the building).

BRUSSELS CITY MUSEUM IS LEAKING: Having waited for more than 20 years for a major restoration, the Broodhuis on Grand-Place is now leaking so badly through its roof and facades, artworks in an exhibition hall on the second floor are in danger of permanent damage. The art will be moved from May 13 but the empty hall will still be open to the public. And no, there are no plans for a reno any time soon.

BOOST TO PALESTINIAN DEVELOPMENT: The Brussels government signed a cooperation agreement with the Palestinian region of Ramallah-Al Bireh on Tuesday under which it will open an office of the hub.brussels business support agency there.

BRUSSELS RESIDENTS DON’T WANT COMPANY CARS: Fifty-four percent of respondents in a poll by RTBF and La Libre said they want more more instead of a company car.

HALLE GATE MUSEUM GOES ‘INTERACTIVE’: Struggling to attract visitors to the 600-year-old former city gate, custodians of Brussels’ medieval history museum are promising to create a livelier experience. Expect beer tastings, immersive multimedia displays, and a café. There is no timeline for the redevelopment.

OUTDOOR CINEMA RETURNS: The “Bruxelles fait son cinéma” festival will return this summer, with free films screening in outdoor venues in 19 communes from June 26 until July 15.

WOMEN IN ELECTIONS: A webinar hosted by various NGOs on May 14 will discuss the progress made in women’s political participation in the EU over the past five years. Register here.

BIRTHDAYS: FT’s Marton Dunai; U.K. Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office’s Madeline Knox; Patrice Talon, president of Benin; Finnish Permanent Representation’s Marjo Hakkarainen.

THANKS TO: Gabriel Gavin, Barbara Moens, Playbook reporter Ketrin Jochecová, editor Alex Spence and producer Seb Starcevic.

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