Brussels is rife with speculation on who might be chosen as the EU executive’s next chief.
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It’s going to be Ursula von der Leyen again, right?
The European Commission president is indeed still the clear front-runner to get a second term atop the EU executive, but she is no longer a shoo-in for another five years.
That means an exciting new game is being played in town (chiefly by politicians, diplomats and officials who are critical of the Commission chief, but you’re free to join in too) of who could get the job, if not von der Leyen?
Below are the runners and riders who are being floated either as genuine alternatives or as a way to pressure von der Leyen to extract concessions from her.
Not on this list … the lead candidates of the political parties competing with von der Leyen. Notwithstanding the so-called Spitzenkandidaten process, the European People’s Party is unlikely to give up the presidency of the Commission if they remain the biggest political force in Brussels.
Why? The 76-year-old led a broad-based Italian coalition until it disintegrated in 2022, and his name often comes up when international leadership roles fall vacant. So far, the former Italian prime minister and European Central Bank president has mostly been linked to the job of European Council president (when Charles Michel exits).
Draghi is already back in the thick of EU politics, working on an official Brussels plan to make the bloc more competitive, which he’ll deliver just after the EU election when European leaders will be haggling over the bloc’s top jobs. On top of that, he’s close to French President Emmanuel Macron.
Why not? The Italian doesn’t have a clear political affiliation, and it’s hard to see why the EPP would surrender the powerful post of Commission president to someone without clear political loyalties.
Chances of replacing VDL:
Why? As outlined above, the EPP is unlikely to give up the Commission leadership in the next term. However, if von der Leyen doesn’t get the support she needs, the other top female EPP candidate could rise to the surface.
As European Parliament president Metsola has managed to stay above the political fray, a tactic which previously helped her secure her current post. At the same time she has shown leadership on foreign policy, and was the first EU leader to visit Kyiv after Russia’s February 2022 invasion. Hailing from Malta, Metsola could be a win for southern Europe when the top jobs are doled out. In an Instagram post last week Metsola was seen huddling with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk — a hint that whatever the job may be, she has support in high places.
Why not? Malta is the smallest country in the EU, by both size and population. Nor does Metsola have any executive experience, even in her home country. Her conservative record on abortion was used against her at the start of her presidency of the EU legislature.
Chances of replacing VDL:
Why? Because she’s French.
Macron’s reluctance to endorse von der Leyen for the top job poses an obvious question: After five years of German rule, and an even longer period of Germans or Austrians holding the key post of head of staff to the Commission president, does Macron want a French native to run the Commission? As an ex-finance minister and current president of the European Central Bank, Lagarde would tick the box of senior executive experience, and has the added advantage of being a woman.
Why not? Because she’s French. (Also: She’s not terribly popular among her own staff.)
There’s no indication that Lagarde would be willing to leave the ECB before the end of her eight-year term, or even that the Elysée is seriously considering putting her name forward. Since she left the IMF Lagarde’s name has come up during virtually every French government reshuffle as a possible minister. Plus ça change…
Chances of replacing VDL:
Why? Romania’s president is seen as a steady hand and is a darling of European leaders, particularly among conservatives. Both Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have showered him with praise for keeping his country anchored in the pro-Western and pro-European camp after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — which can’t be said of Hungary, Slovakia or Bulgaria. Unlike Poland, Romania also strictly observed EU single market rules and didn’t unilaterally impose restrictions on Ukrainian grain — strengthening Iohannis’ reputation as a pro-European team player.
Many argue it’s time for an Eastern European to lead the EU. If so, the German-speaking Iohannis is well-placed, hailing from the same EPP political family as von der Leyen. The decision by the EPP to hold its electoral congress in Bucharest also testifies to his standing among the group’s conservative leaders.
With his second term ending in December, Iohannis is looking for a top international job. Last month he agreed to run as NATO’s next leader — but that will be an uphill battle, given the widespread backing for Dutch PM Mark Rutte.
Why not? Iohannis’ last-minute bid to steal the NATO leadership role from Rutte has annoyed some Western European countries.
Chances of replacing VDL:
Why? Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković also hails from the EPP, and as with Iohannis, his appointment would answer growing calls for Eastern Europe to land a top job. Choosing a Croatian as Commission president would also send a positive signal to aspiring EU members (Croatia is the EU’s newest entry). Plenković’s surprise announcement that he will lead the MEP candidates list of Croatia’s ruling HDZ party has some suspecting he wants to abandon domestic politics. His experience as prime minister since 2016 has certainly provided him with authority and with networking opportunities with his fellow European leaders.
Why not? Plenković has dismissed rumors he could replace von der Leyen, which of course could be seen as a good indication he’s interested in the job.
Chances of replacing VDL:
Why? He’s French. Breton told POLITICO last year that he had been a “Plan B” candidate to become European commissioner back in 2019 (he only got the gig after the first choice, Sylvie Goulard, was knocked out during confirmation hearings in the Parliament). He has strongly hinted that he’s open to becoming Plan B once again, should von der Leyen’s candidacy not pan out. As a former French finance minister, Breton has senior executive experience, and although he’s not from the EPP he does lean conservative. His track record as a former CEO who has put industrial policy back on the Commission agenda allows him to argue he should lead an EU executive that will be far more focused on competitiveness.
Breton has also emerged as von der Leyen’s highest-profile critic in the Brussels bubble. In an infamous tweet following her nomination as the EPP’s lead candidate, Breton noted that the Commission chief didn’t exactly have unanimous support within the EPP for a second term. He was also part of the group of commissioners who criticized her choice of Markus Pieper as the Commission’s SME envoy. And while a senior French official told POLITICO that Macron had been “furious” about the von der Leyen tweet, other French officials have since said that le président wasn’t so perturbed after all.
Why not? Breton has perhaps more enemies than friends in top EU circles, including within the Commission and among many EU countries, with many questioning his track record. His brazen self-promotion and reputation for talking before delivering has irked fellow Commissioners — chief among them Competition boss Margrethe Vestager, but also many of the staff and civil servants he was supposed to work with.
A vicious (and anonymous!) article published in French outlet Atlantico described Breton as “the worst French commissioner in 30 years,” suggesting he has rivals determined to undermine him. In addition, he isn’t EPP, and the controversy around his stint as head of French tech firm Atos is seen as a major liability for any potential confirmation by the European Parliament.
Chances of replacing VDL:
Why? The protracted horse-trading among political groupings over European top jobs after EU elections is always full of surprises. Back in 2019, no one would have bet on von der Leyen’s becoming Commission president; Brussels could well be surprised by a candidate they’ve never heard of or met before.
Why not? We have no clue who it might be (or else it wouldn’t be a surprise).
Chances of replacing VDL:
Clea Caulcutt contributed reporting from Paris. Šejla Ahmatović and Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting from Brussels.