Auto sales grew more than expected for General Motors (GM) in the final quarter of 2022. GM regained the sales crown from Toyota Motor (TM) for the full year after overcoming a sharp slump in the first six months.
XOn Wednesday, GM reported a 41% year-over-year increase in Q4 U.S. new vehicle sales, better than expected. Toyota reported a 13% Q4 sales increase in the U.S. market, but missed estimates. Both auto giants also grew Q4 sales quarter over quarter, a sign that the supply situation continues to improve.
Honda Motor (HMC) on Wednesday topped full-year U.S. sales estimates, with Ford (F) following suit Thursday. Ford reported that EV sales more than tripled in December and more than doubled in 2022. Chrysler parent Stellantis (STLA) on Wednesday topped both Q4 and full-year estimates.
Analysts at J.D. Power and LMC Automotive expect total U.S. new vehicle sales to rise in Q4, after falling in each of the prior quarters of 2022 amid lingering supply disruptions.
Ahead of Wednesday's results, analysts at Cox Automotive predicted that General Motors would seize the U.S. sales crown for the full year. Japan's Toyota had topped GM in the U.S. for the first time in 2021 amid the auto chip shortage. Honda appears set for the largest sales decline in 2022, Cox said.
Globally, Tesla (TSLA) deliveries hit a record 405,278 in the fourth quarter, the company said Monday. The EV giant does not break down sales by country. Tesla missed Q4 forecasts despite aggressive year-end incentives. TSLA stock plunged 12.2% Tuesday to a fresh two-year low. Shares rebounded 5.1% Wednesday and dropped 2.9% Thursday.
Here is how other automakers performed in the fourth quarter. The estimates from Cox Automotive show Q4 and full-year sales volume, as well as sales growth or decline vs. a year ago.
General Motors
Q4 sales estimate: 613,904 vehicles, up 40.7% year over year. It would also be up from the 555,580 vehicles that GM sold in the third quarter.
Full-year 2022 sales estimate: 2,253,641 vehicles, up 2.3% vs. 2021. In the first three quarters of 2022, GM's sales were down 20%, down 15% and up 24% in sequential order.
Results: GM sold 623,261 vehicles in Q4, up 41% year over year. It sold 2.27 million last year, up 3% vs. 2021.
The robust Q4 growth largely reflects an easy comparison, analysts noted. GM's quarterly sales hit a multi-year low in Q4 2021 on weak inventories caused by semiconductor shortages and supply-chain issues.
The auto giant on Wednesday touted "the best sales year ever" for older-generation Bolt EV and Bolt EUV, with 16,108 units sold in Q4 and 38,120 for the full year.
But Q4 sales of new-gen EVs were sluggish. GM delivered 86 units of the Lyriq electric SUV, up from 36 in Q3. It delivered 72 units of the Hummer electric pickup truck, down from 411 in Q3. The automaker has struggled to ramp up production of the new Lyriq and Hummer EVs, which are based on an entirely new electric platform and battery architecture, branded Ultium.
GM stock rose 2.6% to 34.69 in Wednesday's stock market action. Shares gained 0.9% Thursday, remaining far below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
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Toyota Motor
Q4 sales estimate: 550,948 vehicles, up 16.1%.
Full-year 2022 sales estimate: 2,122,665 vehicles, down 9% vs. 2021.
Results: Toyota sold 536,740 vehicles in Q4, up 13.1% year over year. The Japanese car giant sold 2,108,458 vehicles for the full year, down 9.6% vs. 2021. Q4 sales were also higher than the 526,017 Toyota vehicles sold in Q3.
"Electrified" vehicles made up nearly 24% of 2022 sales, including fully electric vehicles, fuel cells, hybrids and plug-in hybrids.
Toyota Motor stock eased 0.8% Wednesday and fell a further 1.3% Thursday, also below key technical levels.
Ford
Q4 sales estimate: 466,447 vehicles, down 7.5% year over year.
Full-year 2022 sales estimate: 1,837,603 vehicles, down 2.9% vs. 2021.
Results: Ford reportedly sold more than 1.9 million vehicles in 2022, down 2.2%. A monthly sales release Thursday showed that total December sales increased 3.2% but retail sales fell 2.3%. The release did not provide sales totals for the year or fourth quarter.
Previously on Tuesday, Ford announced that the F-Series trucks retained the title of America's bestselling vehicle in 2022 for the 41st year. Ford said Thursday it sold 653,957 F-Series trucks in 2022, capped off by a strong December with 75,076 trucks sold.
Full-year EV sales hit a record 61,575 units, making Ford the No. 2 EV maker in America behind Tesla, Thursday's sales release said. Ford EV sales vaulted 223% in December and soared 126% in 2022, the release added. Ford touted a strong sales performance for the fully electric F-150 Lightning truck, Mustang Mach-E SUV and E-Transit vans.
The company reportedly said it is "well positioned into 2023," without giving a specific sales forecast.
Ford stock rose 2.8% Wednesday and advanced 1.9% to 12.24 Thursday.
Stellantis
Q4 sales estimate: 342,894 vehicles, down 16.7% year over year.
Full-year 2022 sales estimate: 1,542,301 vehicles, down 13.2% vs. 2021.
Results: Stellantis, which owns the Dodge, Chrysler, Jeep, Ram and Fiat brands, sold 347,669 vehicles in Q4, down 16%, and 1,547,076 vehicles for 2022, down 13%.
The company's plug-in hybrid-electric vehicle (PHEV) sales in the U.S. grew 21% in Q4 2022 and 26% for the full year.
Stellantis stock climbed 3.2% Wednesday and edged up 0.7% Thursday.
Honda
Q4 sales estimate: 249,379 vehicles, down 13.2%.
Full-year 2022 sales estimate: 977,636 vehicles, down 33.3%.
Results: Honda sold 983,507 vehicles for the year, down 32.9%. The Japanese car giant sold 93,843 vehicles in December, down 10.7%, but did not provide a Q4 total.
In a sales release Wednesday, Honda noted that industrywide supply disruptions linger.
"But we begin 2023 with roughly double the on-hand inventory of 2022 and the expectation that this will mean a healthy sales increase this year," Mamadou Diallo, vice president of auto sales for American Honda Motor, said in the release.
Honda stock added nearly 1% Wednesday. Shares dropped 1% Thursday, back below the 50-day line.
U.S. Auto Sales To Rise In Q4
As the fourth quarter of 2022 progressed, worries about softening demand mounted amid rising interest rates and a 40-year high in inflation.
The month of December saw used-car retailer CarMax (KMX) warn on "vehicle affordability issues," while Tesla (TSLA) offered $7,500 off for last-minute U.S. delivery.
Used-car prices are now falling significantly, which could put some pressure on new-vehicle sticker prices.
On the supply side, new-vehicle inventories "modestly" improved in Q4, analysts at J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said.
As inventories rise, the analysts forecast Q4 new vehicle sales will grow 9.6%, year over year, to 3.55 million units. Sales slumped in each prior quarter of 2022 due to supply rather than demand issues. But the U.S. auto sales pace is expected to fall 6.4% in December from a 14.1 million rate the previous month.
Total new vehicle sales are seen falling 8.4% to 13.69 million units for the full year. Sales rose in the latter half of 2022 but failed to offset declines in the first six months, analysts at J.D. Power said.
2023 Outlook For Car Sales
In 2023, U.S. auto sales are seen rebounding as supply chain woes continue to ease.
"Indications are that shipments will rise incrementally throughout the year, allowing sales to increase from 2022 levels," the analysts at J.D. Power and LMC Auto said.
Despite a possible economic downturn, pent-up consumer demand from the past two years is expected to keep inventory levels relatively low.
Therefore, 2023 is likely to be "another year of relative healthy pricing and profitability" for automakers and auto dealers, the analysts said.
New U.S. EV tax credits of up to $7,500 should buoy demand for electric vehicles in 2023. But the EVs must be assembled in North America, benefiting Tesla, GM and Ford at the expense of most foreign automakers. Income and price cuts also could limit their reach.
Global vehicle sales will rise 6% to 85.7 million units in 2023, J.D. Power predicts. But it warns that recession risk could cut the forecast by as much as 2 million units.
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