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Steve Shepard
Chief POLITICO election reporter
Gov. Laura Kelly is Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent on the ballot this year. Republicans cleared the field for state Attorney General Derek Schmidt, who is hoping to ride the national trend — and tap into Kansas' GOP lean — and oust Kelly after just one term.
But the August ballot initiative over abortion — in which Kansas voters soundly rejected a conservative proposal to end the right to an abortion — has Democrats hopeful that Kelly can hold on.
Here's how I'd break the race down:
Incumbency
Incumbents typically have an advantage in elections, but not always.
Dem.
Toss-up
GOP
Fundraising
How much money each candidate has raised — or what they're expected to get.
Dem.
Toss-up
GOP
Candidate Quality
Each candidate’s “electability” — do they over- or under-perform compared to how a generic Democrat or Republican would run in this case.
Dem.
Toss-up
GOP
Long-Term Trends
How America’s continuing political realignment — including redistricting — could sway this race. (See how redistricting affected this state with our comprehensive tracker.)
Dem.
Toss-up
GOP
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We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings.
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Redistricting will change everything. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers.
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