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By SUZANNE LYNCH and JAKOB HANKE VELA
with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH
PRESENTED BY
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DRIVING THE DAY — GERMAN ELECTION 
SCHOLZ WANTS ‘FAST’ COALITION TALKS: As official preliminary results confirmed on Monday that the center-left SPD had won Sunday’s German election, the party’s candidate Olaf Scholz presented himself as the chancellor-in-waiting: “We want to start talks with [the FDP and the Greens] to form a government as fast as possible,” Scholz said. Of course, that’s mostly up to the Greens and the FDP.
In the other camp: Armin Laschet, whose CDU-CSU alliance suffered a huge drop in support, sought to shift the blame for the union’s historic losses by claiming there was no winner at all: “No party can derive a mandate to govern for itself from this clear result,” he said.
Still wants to be König? At a closed-door meeting with the party leadership on Monday, Laschet insisted he still wanted to be the next chancellor. “Olaf Scholz is not the king,” said the man whose family is reportedly convinced he is a descendant of Charlemagne. But even as Laschet insisted he would soldier on, our colleague Matthew Karnitschnig writes, it has become increasingly clear he is beginning to accept the obvious: he lost.
Pressure is mounting: BILD, Germany’s most-read tabloid, on Monday captured the turning tide against the center-right candidate. “Why is Laschet not congratulating Scholz despite the SPD’s victory?” the paper asked.
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Knives out: CDU and CSU members are also starting to speak out against Laschet. Economy Minister Peter Altmaier on Monday called for the CDU to “regroup.” The CSU’s Markus Söder said Laschet “has to decide for himself” — which is being read as a suggestion Laschet may resign.
What the kids want: The CDU’s youth wings in several states called for Laschet to make way for newer faces. Ellen Demuth, a regional CDU member and close ally of former Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen, openly called for Laschet’s resignation. “I wish this tweet was unnecessary. I wish there was self-awareness … all I can say is: Armin Laschet, you have lost. Please show some insight. Avert further damage to the CDU and resign.”
By the numbers: The CDU and CSU lost around 2 million voters to the SPD in Sunday’s vote. In addition, around 1.3 million switched to the liberal Free Democrats since 2017 and another million went over to the Greens. Our colleagues Cornelius Hirsch and Arnau Busquets Guàrdia illustrate where Angela Merkel’s votes went in this excellent graphic.
GREENS BLAME BAERBOCK: While Laschet is doing everything he can to dodge the blame, the Greens’ Annalena Baerbock accepted the criticism from (mostly men) within her party over a worse-than-expected performance — despite the fact she presided over a 5.9-point gain on the 2017 election.
Apples and oranges: Instead of comparing the Greens’ 2021 performance with its result in 2017, though, party members are looking at the summer’s extremely high polling numbers, when it looked like they could have come first.
Taking responsibility: In a speech to party members and supporters Monday, Baerbock said she had made mistakes and asked for forgiveness. Baerbock’s co-leader Robert Habeck will be seeking the post of vice chancellor, FAZ and Welt reported Monday.
GREEN ISSUES TAKE CENTER STAGE: Climate policy is one of the keys to forming the new German government. But with the Greens and the FDP having utterly different philosophies on how to reach Germany’s climate goals, the issue will be a major faultline in upcoming coalition talks. Our colleagues Karl Mathiesen and Zia Weise have the story. (And here are all the coalition options.)
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE AfD? POLITICO’s Emily Schultheis takes a look at the far-right party’s performance.
BRUSSELS ON MUTE: While the German election results are the talk of Brussels, unsurprisingly the European Commission had no comment on Monday, noting that it never has anything to say about national elections until a government is formed. Nonetheless, as the parties get to work on forming a coalition, the shape of the new German government could dictate the direction of EU policy in the medium-term — and put major policy decisions on hold until a successor to Angela Merkel is found.
Opinion — No good option: Whoever ends up becoming the next German chancellor, neither Scholz nor Laschet will be able to provide the EU with strong leadership, Mujtaba Rahman argues in his Beyond the Bubble column for POLITICO.
MORE TROUBLE FOR TRANSATLANTIC TRADE COUNCIL
DOMBROVSKIS AND VESTAGER GO STATESIDE: The two EU commissioners leading on trade policy — Valdis Dombrovskis and Margrethe Vestager — are in the U.S. for meetings ahead of Wednesday’s inaugural Trade and Tech Council (TTC) in Pittsburgh. Dombrovskis will meet U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo today before traveling to Pittsburgh, while Vestager is speaking at the CODE Conference in Los Angeles.
Trouble back home: Dombrovskis quoted 28th U.S. President Woodrow Wilson as he emphasized the historic friendship between Europe and the United States in a speech on Monday at Johns Hopkins University. But back in Brussels, fresh disagreements emerged at a meeting of EU ambassadors. Our colleagues Barbara Moens and Jacopo Barigazzi have the details. Here’s a rundown …
French annoyance: Paris, which last week led an unsuccessful attempt to postpone the TTC meeting as it vented its fury at Washington’s decision to team up with Australia and the U.K. in the Indo-Pacific and Canberra’s abandonment of a lucrative submarine deal, raised new objections to the 17-page document agreed last Friday by EU countries.
French demands: In particular, France was unhappy at language in the agreed text on semiconductors, while also querying a reference to a second meeting taking place in March next year — during the French Council presidency.
Pro-trade countries push back: But other countries keen to maintain good trade relations with Washington pushed back. Ireland, for instance, objected to the apparent watering down of the ambitions of the meeting. As it happens, Leo Varadkar, the country’s trade minister and deputy PM, is also in Washington, and met with Tai on Monday. He said Dublin will need assurance that all countries — read: the U.S. — will sign up to a minimum corporate tax rate before Ireland agrees to a global tax deal at next month’s G20.
EU INSISTS DEAL STILL ON TRACK: EU officials on Monday insisted that the semiconductor proposals had not been scaled back at France’s request, saying member countries were still “fine-tuning” the language. They said both sides will agree to joint commitments at Wednesday’s meeting, though watch this space for specifics.
FRANCE EYES NEW DEAL: Following its ill-fated submarine deal with Australia, France is now looking elsewhere for defense partnerships. POLITICO’s Nektaria Stamouli reports that France and Greece will sign a major defense deal today. “We’re moving toward a significant reinforcement of the strategic partnership between Greece and France,” Greek Prime Minister Kyriákos Mitsotákis told public broadcaster ERT in an interview from the Louvre Monday evening.
Cementing ties within Europe: The new deal will include commitments from Greece to purchase roughly €5 billion worth of French warships and fighter jets, as well as a clause on mutual defense assistance, according to three Greek government officials.
BRITAIN’S SUPPLY WOES
TAKING BACK CONTROL: It wasn’t quite what the Brexiteers envisioned: empty shelves, queues at petrol stations, and pleas for European poultry workers and lorry drivers to come back across the Channel in time for the Christmas rush. But that is the reality unfolding in Britain as the country struggles with a supply chain crisis.
RUNNING OUT OF FUEL: Some 90 percent of petrol stations are running dry after a wave of panic-buying hit the U.K., with trucks unable to deliver new fuel in time. At an emergency meeting on Monday, the British government discussed deploying the army to drive tankers under contingency planning known as Operation Escalin. London also suspended competition rules to ease the supply and sharing of fuel across the country.
Empty shelves: The squeeze on fuel comes as Britons were already grappling with empty shelves in supermarkets in recent months — everything from bottled water to fresh fruit and vegetables have been scarce.
Who’s to blame? The U.K. government has argued that most of the problems are COVID-related, claiming that other countries are struggling with supply chain issues arising from the pandemic. They also point out that U.K. citizens, and not just foreign lorry drivers, have left the road haulage industry, leading to a massive shortage of staff.
Reality check: The rest of Europe has no gasoline shortage and has managed to keep supermarket shelves stocked. That said, our colleague Hanne Cokelaere reports that the EU is indeed also grappling with a driver shortage — and the problem existed before the pandemic. Read her full story here.
Brexit impact: Regardless, Brexit has been instrumental in the current crisis engulfing the U.K. About 14,000 EU drivers left Britain last year, while thousands of workers in the food industry have also gone back to their home countries. The fact London is having to issue emergency visas to EU workers shows its reliance on non-British workers. The irony is unmistakable — after many Brexiteers accused European workers of taking jobs from Brits, the U.K. is now learning just how much it depends on EU labor, particularly in the food and logistics industry.
Remember: Britain announced earlier this month that, because of the supply chain issues, it would postpone (again) the required paperwork and post-Brexit checks on goods entering the U.K. from the European Union. In contrast, the EU has had its checks in place for British exporters since January. This effectively gives EU suppliers a competitive advantage over their U.K. peers, as they don’t have to comply with onerous customs checks.
Schadenfreude 1: “The EU workers we speak to will not go to the U.K. for a short-term visa to help the U.K. out of the shit they created themselves,” Edwin Atema of the Dutch Federation of Trade Unions said. “Drivers need way more than a visa and a payslip,” he added.
Schadenfreude 2: Asked by U.K. journalists whether he would send truck drivers to Britain, Germany’s Olaf Scholz said (in English!): “The free movement of labor is part of the European Union and we worked very hard to convince the British not to leave the Union … I hope they will manage the problems coming from that.”
NOW READ THIS: POLITICO’s Esther Webber is at the first in-person Labour conference since Keir Starmer became the party’s leader. And she reports he’s struggling to hog the limelight, overshadowed by his outspoken deputy, a Northern mayor, and left-wing anger. Read Esther’s dispatch from Brighton.
**Emer Cooke, executive director of the European Medicines Agency, will be joining POLITICO Live’s Health Care Summit on October 27-28 for an opening interview. Register for free today and attend the two days of compelling discussions. Confirm your spot today.**
IN OTHER NEWS
GOOGLE GOES TO LUXEMBOURG: Lawyers for Google fiercely rejected the European Commission’s claims that the company’s Android operating system breached EU antitrust laws, as a five-day hearing into a case dating from 2018 kicked off in Luxembourg on Monday. But the Commission’s lawyers argued before the European Court of Justice that the company’s dominance resulted in “a virtuous circle for Google but a vicious circle for anybody else.” The hearing continues until Friday.
FAROE ISLANDS FEAR REPUTATIONAL DAMAGE FROM DOLPHIN SLAUGHTER: Anger is mounting at the government of the Danish autonomous territory, which allowed local fishers to herd almost 1,500 dolphins into shallow waters and butcher them with knives earlier this month. The “traditional” slaughter was caught on camera and environmental activists are now calling for consequences. The U.K. is resisting calls to halt its trade deal with the autonomous territory. The Commission is also facing calls to impose consequences — which it could theoretically do, since the island group is not part of the EU.
BREAKING EGGS: French President Emmanuel Macron was hit by an egg as he toured a restaurant trade fair in Lyon.“If he has something to say to me, let him come,” the president said of the suspected thrower, who was arrested. It is the second time in four months Macron has been subject to a physical assault — in June he was slapped while meeting hospitality workers in southeast France. More here.
SCOMO MAY SKIP COP26: Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison has indicated he may not attend the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow in early November, because of the impact of having to quarantine on his return home. More than 100 world leaders have confirmed their attendance at the global gathering — Morrison’s absence will again raise questions about Australia’s dubious track record on climate change.
BIDEN GETS A BOOSTER: U.S. President Joe Biden received a third COVID shot on live TV at the White House on Monday. The U.S. is moving ahead with boosters for its citizens even as vaccination take-up stalls in certain parts of the country.
Meanwhile in Europe: Some EU countries have already begun administering boosters — even though experts disagree on whether they are needed. The European Medicine Agency on Monday said it was assessing a Moderna booster.
AGENDA
— European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visits Skopje and Tirana. Joint press conference with Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama at 11:30 a.m. and with North Macedonia’s PM Zoran Zaev at 3:20 p.m. Watch.
— European ministers gather in Brussels for Competitiveness Council at 9:30 a.m. Press conference at 2:45 p.m. Watch.
— EU High Representative Josep Borrell holds videoconference call with Wang Yi, state councilor and minister for foreign affairs of China.
— ECB President Christine Lagarde delivers introductory speech at ECB forum “Beyond the pandemic: the future of monetary policy.” Frankfurt, 2 p.m. Watch here.
— European Parliament highlights: Joint meeting of Committee on Budgets and Committee on Budgetary Control on the multiannual financial framework (MFF) Brussels 10:30 a.m. … Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety votes on amended on EU strategy on reducing methane emissions 10:30 a.m. (Zia Weise has a fascinating story on tracking Europe’s methane leak problem here.)
— Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson is in Cyprus. She’s due to meet the Cypriot Interior Minister Nico Nouris and Minister for Justice Stephie Dracos. Watch the press conference here at 10:35 a.m.
— Single Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is in Japan promoting the EU’s semiconductor strategy, meeting with industry, communications and digital transformation ministers.
— Interinstitutional Relations Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič meets Ukraine’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko.
— Agri Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski participates in the World Agri-Tech Innovation Summit (2:10 p.m.). Agenda.
BRUSSELS CORNER
AWARDED: Belarusian opposition leader and activist Maria Kalesnikava was awarded the Václav Havel Human Rights Prize. Her sister Tatsiana Khomich accepted the €60,000 prize on her behalf at a ceremony at the Council of Europe in Strasbourg on Monday.
BRUSSELS CALLING: Hosted by Cambre Associates, the “Brussels Calling” debate will examine the role of the Brussels media in scrutinizing the EU Institutions. Chaired by EU Ombudsman and former journalist Emily O’Reilly, it will feature our own Suzanne Lynch, the Financial Times’ Sam Fleming, Jennifer Rankin from the Guardian and La Croix’s Céline Schoen. Starts at 11 a.m., watch here.
WELCOME TO BRUSSELS! Lelde Līce-Līcīte in August succeeded Sanita Pavļuta-Deslandes as Latvia’s ambassador to the EU. Līce-Līcīte was previously the Latvian prime minister’s sherpa/foreign policy and EU affairs adviser, and before that served as a deputy head of mission at Latvia’s perm rep to the EU. Latvia’s new deputy EU ambassador is Mārtiņš Kreitus, who until last month served as the country’s ambassador to the WTO in Geneva.
MEA CULPA: Playbook incorrectly said last week that the prime minister of Slovakia was going to attend the Budapest Demographic Summit. Eduard Heger did not attend the summit — our apologies for any confusion caused.
BIRTHDAYS: MEP Tineke Strik; Former MEP Kostadinka Kuneva; Les Echos’ Hortense Goulard; Bulgarian EU Ambassador Dimiter Tzantchev; U.K. Department for Work and Pensions’ Robert Eagleton; Département du Nord’s Jeanne Duhem; Miloš Zeman, president of the Czech Republic; Ana Brnabić, Serbian PM; French actress Brigitte Bardot; Author Simon Winchester; Sheikh Hasina Wazed, prime minister of Bangladesh.
MANY THANKS: Jillian Deutsch, Florian Eder, Barbara Moens, Jacopo Barigazzi, Lili Bayer and our producer Grace Stranger.
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