Most Recent Universal Movies Earned Over 1/3 Of Their Total Box Office After PVOD

A look at how Comcast's theatrical releases have fared both before and after they became available on PVOD.

We got word yesterday that Wrath of Man was topping the Vudu and Fandango charts, even as Spiral: From the Book of Saw made its premiere that previous Tuesday. So, yes, the Jason Statham actioner, a non-franchise remake which to 99% of the audience qualifies as a “new to you” original, out-earned the Chris Rock-starring Saw sequel. That’s doubly impressive when you consider that the MGM-distributed (in North America) Guy Ritchie flick is still earning halfway decent box office, with $24.7 million thus far from an $8.1 million debut. That’s not a barn-burner, but it’s decent for a Statham actioner. What’s worth tracking over the next month is how much more it earns now that it’s available to rent for $20-a-pop.

If this “from theaters to PVOD in a month” thing is part of the new normal, do these movies still pull in theatrical crowds once they concurrently debut on PVOD? Lionsgate (with Chaos Walking, Voyagers and now Spiral) and Disney (with Raya and Cruella) play the same game. At the same time, both Warner Bros. (in 2022) and Paramount (as we speak) will allegedly put their films in streaming or PVOD 45 days after theaters. Universal broke the dam last summer. They agreed to a deal with AMC (which eventually became essentially industry-wide) to allow their first-run theatricals to enter the PVOD market in as little as 17 days or (if the film nabs $50 million on opening weekend) 31 days after opening day.

Thus far, the dozen or so Universal and Focus Features flicks that have opened theatrically since late 2020 have arrived on PVOD at the start of weekend four, so 21 days after opening. It is presumed that F9 will open big enough in 2.5 weeks to merit a 31-day (or likely 36-day) theatrical window. Still, the vast majority of Universal offerings in 2021 and 2022 (understandably) will earn the 21-day window. So, with that said, how have the films thus far experimenting in this system held up during their theatrical run? Well, looking at four key Focus Features titles (Come Play, Let Him Go, Promising Young Woman and Boogie) and four Universal titles (Freaky, The Croods: A New Age, News of the World, Nobody), let’s dive in.

Five out of eight titles released in late 2020 or early 2021 earned over 1/3 of their theatrical revenue after the 21st day of release or after being available in theaters and on PVOD. Two of the more mainstream titles, the Diane Lane/Kevin Costner modern-day western Let Him Go and Blumhouse's buzzy body-swap horror-comedy Freaky, were among the lower grossers. They also had two of the three smallest percentages of their theatrical revenue after their PVOD availability. Now both (well-reviewed) flicks have gone relatively well on PVOD, which implies that folks who wanted to see them willfully waited until they could watch it at home. Yes, both films opened in October/November 2020, when the Coronavirus infections weren’t exactly making the world safe for theatres.

We can forever debate what films might have grossed what had they opened in non-Covid times or healthier theatrical marketplaces. I'd argue the Katherine Newton/Vince Vaughn flick might have been a sleeper hit had it opened under normal circumstances. Let Him Go will eventually live forever on Peacock alongside the first three seasons of Kevin Costner’s blockbuster (at least according to last summer’s Amazon VOD charts) modern-day western Yellowstone. Likewise, Eddie Huang’s Boogie would likely have gone straight to PVOD (or a streaming platform) absent the theaters/PVOD hybrid strategy. The under-the-radar Come Play, which kicked this off in late October 2020 and A) outgrossed the buzzier likes of Freaky and Promising Young Woman and B) earned 39% of its $10.4 million gross after its PVOD availability.

Speaking of Promising Young Woman, the Carey Mulligan-starring rape-revenge dramedy benefited from the Oscar season, such as it was this time around. The Emerald Fennell-directed flick earned just $6.46 million domestic, which made it (by default) the season’s biggest-grossing “Oscar movie.” However, while it was unusually leggy on PVOD (more than enough to make the under-$10 million flick profitable alongside the $16 million in global theatrical receipts), it also earned over 1/2 of its lifetime total while being concurrently available on PVOD. Likewise, Tom Hanks’ News of the World (also an awards season flick) earned 42% of its $12.7 million while also available at home. Not a shocking statement, but the leggier theatrical films made a more significant majority of their cumes after day 21.

Likewise, Bob Odenkirk's R-rated action-comedy Nobody earned $47 million worldwide on a $15 million budget and (I would argue) might spawn a new franchise. It made a solid (and still-going) 37% of its $26.1 million cume (from a $6.7 million debut) while ruling the PVOD charts. The R-rated flick debuts on electronic sell-through ("priced to buy") today. Oh, and let's not forget the real shocker. The Croods: A New Age was the first big-scale honest-to-goodness hit of the pandemic-era re-opening process, earning $58.4 million domestic and $166 million worldwide on a $65 million budget along with (rough guestimate) around $100 million in PVOD sales. Even more surprising, the film earned $33.37 million (57%) of its theatrical revenue after it was available to rent at home.

Sure, it was the only big game in town between Thanksgiving and Wonder Woman 1984 on Christmas. Still, even after that, as it entered 2021 alongside Wonder Woman 1984 and eventually held its own against Tom & Jerry and Walt Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon, it persevered as a popular "general audiences" theatrical pick. If studios want to argue, truthfully or not, that offering multiple viewing options alongside theatrical doesn't automatically cannibalize theatrical, Croods 2 is exhibit A. Yes, the overall grosses were low. That's also the case for Raya and the Last Dragon ($53 million from an $8.7 million debut). The Disney toon kept a-going after debuting on EST on April 2 and VOD/DVD on May 18. It earned $23 million (43%) while available on EST and then VOD.

I am bemused by Sponge On the Run topping the VOD charts for $20-per-rental on the same day it is released on Paramount+ (included in a $10-per-month subscription). The film's dual availability may not have hurt as either enough customers chose one option over another or customers didn't know where and how it was available. As movie theaters re-open, a $6-$10 movie ticket for a few people is going to become as enticing, if not more so, than a $20-$30 rental. That's especially true if you're not a family of five weighing leasing Cruella at home versus spending $50-$100 in tickets and concessions. I don't have any grand pronouncements or long-term thesis statements beyond "we won't know until true normalcy returns," but I just wanted to run the numbers.