The Las Vegas Aces lug a rare losing skid into Monday’s matchup with the Los Angeles Sparks, having lost back-to-back regular season games for the first time since July 9 of last year.
Las Vegas followed its historic collapse against Chicago with a nail-biting overtime loss to Washington on Saturday. While two losses are no cause for panic, the Aces are nowhere near as dominant as their red-hot start to 2022, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. The WNBA betting odds have Vegas pegged as big as a 7.5-point favorite in L.A. tonight.
Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for Aces at Sparks on June 27.
Aces vs Sparks odds
Las Vegas opened as low as -6 and shot up to -7.5 with early money on the road side. The total hit the board at 174.5 points and slipped down to 173.5.
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Aces vs Sparks predictions
Predictions made on 6/27/2022 at 10:43 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the WNBA, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Claim Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Aces vs Sparks info
• Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Monday, June 27, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV: MYLVTV, SportsNet LA
Aces vs Sparks betting preview
Key injuries
Aces: Riquna Williams G (Out)
Sparks: Chiney Ogwumike F (Questionable), Jordin Canada G (Questionable), Rae Burrell F (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Aces are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Sparks.
Aces vs Sparks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Aces started the season on an 8-1 ATS tear but have since faced beefed-up spreads as the market corrects to that windfall. Those inflated numbers, along with a downtick in defensive intensity, has burned Vegas bettors over the past month.
Las Vegas has allowed a league-high 88.1 points per game in June and boast a defensive rating of 102.3 in that span, swelling from a metric of 95.8 in the first month of the schedule. Defensive lapses allowed the Sky to rally back from a 41-18 first-quarter hole last week — with Vegas giving up a season-high 104 points — and allowed the Mystics to start fast and hang on for an OT win in Sin City on the weekend.
A change of venue (and a change in quality of competition) could be all Becky Hammon’s squad needs to get right. Vegas has beaten up on some of the bottom-tier teams in the WNBA this season, boasting seven of its 13 wins against the likes of Phoenix, Minnesota, and Los Angeles — the three bottom teams in the West with a collective record of 19-36 SU.
The Sparks have just two wins in June so far, most recently stunning Seattle as 6.5-point road underdogs on Saturday. However, L.A. has fallen — and fallen hard — in matchups with the Aces, losing 104-76 in Vegas on May 23 and 89-72 at home on June 11.
The Aces held the Sparks to 38.4% shooting from the floor, including 26.7% from 3-point range over those meetings, and specifically did a great job shutting down former star and L.A. center Liz Cambage, who scored a combined 16 points in those matchups.
Las Vegas has thrived on the road this year, owning an average margin of +10.0 as a visitor while going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. After a less-than-impressive three-game home stand, the Aces hit the road for the first time since June 15 and start a four-game trip in L.A. tonight – a much-needed getaway to snap this team out of a mini funk.
This line has already jumped as much as a point and a half at some shops, so grab Vegas as low as you can.
Prediction: Las Vegas -7 (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Hammon harped on defense following the loss to Washington: emphasizing it was what got them back into the game after falling behind early... and what cost them the game down the stretch.
Despite those recent defensive shortcomings, the Aces still own the second-lowest advanced defense rating on the road (95.3). They’re allowing an average of just over 80 points as a visitor while holding host teams to 40.5% shooting on their own floor.
Los Angeles is terribly inconsistent on offense, evidenced by its last two outings. The Sparks scored only 59 points on 33% shooting in a one-sided loss to Chicago last week before hitting 47% of their looks for 85 points against Seattle’s No. 2 defense.
Vegas won’t give L.A. anything easy, as proven in its past matchups, and does a great job limiting close-range looks and taking care of the basketball — something that could cool down a Sparks attack that picks up plenty of points off of opponents’ mistakes.
Los Angeles generates 22.5% of its productions from points off turnovers, ranking third in the league in that statistic. Las Vegas coughs the ball up a league-low 11.9 times per game and allows for a mere 13.7 points against off those miscues.
Prediction: Under 174.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
This spread is climbing and the moneyline is going along for the ride, with Vegas jumping from -250 to as high as -333 to win outright.
After trailing Washington at the halftime break on Saturday, Vegas will be aiming for a stronger start to this game. This team still holds a +6.4 margin in the opening two quarters on the season and won’t let up if it jumps out to a big lead, with the bad taste of last week’s loss to the Sky still lingering.
The Sparks also run the risk of a potential letdown spot after their big road win over the Storm on Saturday. Los Angeles struggles with the WNBA elite and that was their best resume win since stealing an OT win at Chicago in the season opener.
We’ll take the sting out of the rising moneyline and play Las Vegas on the double result (1H/Full Game) line.
Pick: Las Vegas Double Result (-160 at bet365)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s WNBA Aces vs. Sparks predictions and picks in a single-game parlay, you could win $49.23 on a $10 bet?
Use our WNBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
