Important update: Healthcare facilities
CDC has updated select ways to operate healthcare systems effectively in response to COVID-19 vaccination. Learn more
UPDATE
Given new evidence on the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, CDC has updated the guidance for fully vaccinated people. CDC recommends universal indoor masking for all teachers, staff, students, and visitors to K-12 schools, regardless of vaccination status. Children should return to full-time in-person learning in the fall with layered prevention strategies in place.
UPDATE
The White House announced that vaccines will be required for international travelers coming into the United States, with an effective date of November 8, 2021. For purposes of entry into the United States, vaccines accepted will include FDA approved or authorized and WHO Emergency Use Listing vaccines. More information is available here.

COVID-19 Forecasts: Hospitalizations

COVID-19 Forecasts: Hospitalizations
Updated Mar. 27, 2024

Forecasted daily COVID-19 hospital admissions as of March 25, 2024

Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospitalizations

  • This week’s national ensemble predicts 100 to 3,100 daily COVID-19 hospital admissions likely reported on April 22. Ensemble hospitalization estimates for the next four weeks are also available for states and territories.
  • Publication of forecasts and recent hospitalization data for Texas has been delayed until a technical data issue can be investigated and resolved.
  • Forecasts and recent hospitalization data for New Mexico should be interpreted with caution until a technical data issue can be investigated and resolved.
  • Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast. While they have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance over time, even the ensemble forecasts have not reliably predicted rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. They should not be relied upon for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends.

National Forecasts

National Hospitalization Forecasts graph
  • The figure shows the number of daily COVID-19 hospital admissions reported in the United States each day from January 16 through March 15 and forecasted daily COVID-19 hospital admissions over the next four weeks, through April 22.
  • This week, ensemble forecasts of daily COVID-19 hospital admissions included forecasts from 10 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for at least one jurisdiction.
  • Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details on the assumptions and methods used to produce the forecasts.

Download national forecast data [CSV – 6 KB]

State Forecasts

State-level forecasts show the predicted number of daily COVID-19 hospital admissions for the next four weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of daily COVID-19 hospital admissions between states and only forecasts meeting a set of ensemble inclusion criteria are shown. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble/. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below.

Download state forecasts [PDF – 2 MB]

Download state forecast data [CSV – 2 MB]

Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.

Forecast Inclusion, Evaluation, and Assumptions

The teams with forecasts included in the ensembles are displayed below. Forecasts are included when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described at the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.

Ensemble and individual team forecast performance is evaluated using a variety of metrics, including the assessment of prediction interval coverage, available at https://delphi.cmu.edu/forecast-eval/.

Reported hospitalizations can vary due to variable staffing and inconsistent reporting patterns within the week. Thus, daily variations in the reported values and the forecasts may not fully represent the true number of hospitalizations in each jurisdiction on a specific day.

Additional Resources