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538 VS Real Clear Politics polling average
Politics
Does anyone know why 538's polling average has Biden steady at approximately +10.5 while RCP has him dropping to under +9?
Are they averaging different polls? Weighting differently?
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RCP doesn't weight polls, and only takes recent polling into account. It's an average of national polls over the past two weeks https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
Fivethirtyeight weights polls based on past performance and methodology. And they also include polls from over two weeks ago, but their weighting depends on the quality and quantity of recent polling.
TL;DR: RCP only averages polls over the last two weeks. Fivethirtyeight uses fancy math to make their best guess based on available polling.
Also rcp has a history of excluding and / or delaying polls with no explanation
Rcp for that reason, is not a good source unfortunately
They left their Texas numbers completely untouched for two full weeks, ignoring multiple well-rated polls listed on 538 showing TX tied or Biden up 1 or 2. The moment a new poll came in showing Trump up 4, they updated their average with that while leaving out the earlier ones. Really influenced my opinion of that site.
Thanks for the addition, I'm not too familiar with RCP and was unaware of that.
Perfect. Thanks.
Doesn't rcp selectively choose a few polls they want to include? 538 includes any poll but weights them based on quality/methodology?
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I don't know much about RCP. Does it lean conservative?
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Thanks. I just read the Wiki on RCP that had Nate Silver's comments on RCP.