Splits between the Electoral College and popular vote
Date: November 3, 2020 |
 Donald Trump Joe Biden Howie Hawkins Jo Jorgensen
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Since the national popular vote was first recorded in 1824, there have been four presidential elections where the winner won the Electoral College and lost the popular vote:
- Donald Trump (R) in 2016
- George W. Bush (R) in 2000
- Benjamin Harrison (R) in 1888
- Rutherford B. Hayes (R) in 1876
Additionally, the winner of the 1824 presidential election, John Quincy Adams (Democratic-Republican), won neither the Electoral College nor the popular vote.
This page provides an overview of presidential elections that featured a split between the Electoral College and the popular vote.
What is the Electoral College?
- See also: Electoral College
The Electoral College is the process through which the president of the United States is elected to office, as outlined in Article II of the United States Constitution. In this system, each state receives a number of votes equal to the total number of their delegation to the United States Congress. The vote casters, known as electors, are chosen by rules differing in each state, but many are elected during each party's state conventions. Electors have traditionally cast their votes for president in December, following the general election in November.
The Electoral College system emerged as a compromise between the framers of the Constitution, who debated whether to elect the president by popular vote, Congress, or state legislatures. The framers viewed the Electoral College as "an actual decisionmaking body that would reduce the uncertain impact of popular participation and increase the likelihood that only well-qualified would be elected to the presidency," according to Benjamin Ginsberg, a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University.[1]
Splits between the Electoral College and national popular vote, 1824-2016
The following chart shows the five presidential elections where there was a split between the Electoral College and the national popular vote or no candidate received a majority of the Electoral College vote.[2]
| 2016 presidential election | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Party | Electoral votes | Popular vote |
| Donald Trump | Republican |
304  |
62,980,160 |
| Hillary Clinton | Democratic |
227 | 65,845,063
|
| 2000 presidential election | |||
| Candidate | Party | Electoral votes | Popular vote |
| George W. Bush | Republican |
271 |
50,456,062 |
| Al Gore | Democratic |
266 | 50,996,582
|
| 1888 presidential election | |||
| Candidate | Party | Electoral votes | Popular vote |
| Benjamin Harrison | Republican |
233 |
5,439, 853 |
| Grover Cleveland | Democratic |
168 | 5,540,309
|
| 1876 presidential election | |||
| Candidate | Party | Electoral votes | Popular vote |
| Rutherford B. Hayes | Republican |
185 |
4,036,298 |
| Samuel J. Tilden | Democratic |
184 | 4,300,590
|
| 1824 presidential election | |||
| Candidate | Party | Electoral votes | Popular vote |
| John Quincy Adams[3] |  Democratic-Republican |
84 | 108,740 |
| Andrew Jackson | Democratic-Republican |
99 | 153,544
|
| William H. Crawford | Democratic-Republican |
41 | 40,856 |
| Henry Clay | Democratic-Republican |
37 | 47,531 |
Analysis of split in the 2016 presidential election
The split in the 2016 presidential can be attributed to three main factors. First, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton received significant support in populous blue states like New York and California, where together she received more than 13 million votes. Large margins in these states inflated Clinton’s popular vote totals while doing little to offset her deficit in the Electoral College.
Similarly, Clinton performed well in several red states that she ended up losing. In Texas, for example, she received 3.8 million votes. Barack Obama’s (D) final vote count in Texas in 2012 was 3.3 million. Clinton also added significantly to her popular vote totals in Arizona and Georgia. Donald Trump (R) won both of those states.
The third factor was several close races in battleground states with large populations. For example, Clinton and Trump were separated by margins of less than one percent in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
- See also: National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an interstate compact to award member states' presidential electors to the candidate that receives the most votes nationwide. The NPVIC would go into effect if states representing at least 270 electoral college votes adopt the legislation.[4][5] As of May 2024, 17 states and Washington, D.C., had adopted legislation to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Together, they represent 209 Electoral College votes.[4][5]
See also
- Trump wins White House as “Blue Wall” crumbles
- Presidential election, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential battleground states, 2016
- National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
Footnotes
- ↑ Ginsberg, B. (2016). Presidential Government, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press
- ↑ 270 to Win, "Historical Presidential Elections," accessed November 13, 2019
- ↑ No candidate won a majority in the Electoral College—131 votes at the time—which sent the decision to the House of Representatives. The House picked Adams, who came in second in both the popular vote total and the Electoral College.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 National Popular Vote.com, Main page, accessed August 9, 2011 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; name "nationalvote" defined multiple times with different content - ↑ 5.0 5.1 National Center for Interstate Compacts, "National Popular Vote Interstate Compact," accessed March 6, 2016 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; name "compact" defined multiple times with different content
