Ukraine on edge of defeat as it waits for aid

With help from Alex Ward and Joseph Gedeon

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Lawmakers and aides on Capitol Hill are anxiously waiting to see whether Speaker MIKE JOHNSON can secure the votes needed to tee up floor debate on his newly unveiled foreign aid package, especially as the fate of Ukraine hangs in the balance.

Johnson has been scurrying around the Hill, trying to rally House Republicans skeptical of giving aid to Ukraine by including measures to secure the southern border in the package. It’s a seemingly futile attempt to make everyone happy while still keeping his job, as two House Republicans aim to oust him from the speakership for his support of Ukraine aid.

The general perception on the Hill is “they’re going to do this motion, and he needs to accept that and then make a decision about his legacy,” a senior House aide told NatSec Daily, granted anonymity to speak candidly.

After all, there’s another path for Ukraine aid to get through Congress, even without Johnson’s plan working out. If Johnson shuts the Ukraine conversation down, then it’s widely believed Democrats have the numbers to pass the Senate discharge petition and move the Senate supplemental.

The slow process has been infuriating for Ukrainians. After dozens of interviews with political leaders, military officers, and citizens, our own JAMIE DETTMER deduced that Ukraine is a country slipping toward disaster as doubts swirl that the West will help for “as long as it takes” — the phrase often uttered by the Biden administration.

“We know people are flagging,” ANDRIY YERMAK, President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s chief of staff, told Jamie about Ukrainians who dodge the draft. In an effort to raise their spirits, Yermak and Zelensnkyy “tell people: ‘Your name will be in the history books.’”

Several senior Ukrainian officers warned Jamie that the frontlines could potentially collapse this summer when Russia launches its expected offensive with a massive number of soldiers.

Speaking to lawmakers today, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. BROWN said Ukraine’s “hard-fought gains can be lost without our support,” while Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN warned that if the supplemental is delayed, allies and partners “will question whether or not … we are a reliable partner.” President JOE BIDEN took to The Wall Street Journal today to ramp up the pressure on Congress to pass the aid and said he strongly supports the bills.

Zelenskyy’s pleas for help became increasingly desperate this week, after the U.S. and partners came to Israel’s direct defense during Iran’s strike over the weekend. Thirteen lives could have been saved if Kyiv had received enough Western military assistance ahead of an airstrike this morning, Zelenskyy said. NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG urged allies today to give Ukraine more air defenses.

The tide can only turn in Kyiv’s favor, many Ukrainian and American politicians argue, if Congress gets its act together.

“We can overcome the Kremlin on the battlefield, we’ve proven this many times,” VOLODYMYR OMELYAN, Ukraine’s former infrastructure minister, told NatSec Daily. But “Ukraine can lose only if we are out of weapons and the pause … turns out too long.”

Read: EU fiddles on Middle East as Ukraine burns by our own BARBARA MOENS, JACOPO BARIGAZZI and NICHOLAS VINOCUR

The Inbox

I’M JUST FOUR BILLS: The four supplemental bills today promise major spending for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, which isn’t much different than the Senate bill. Here’s the foreign aid breakdown:

The Ukraine bill contains over $60 billion in supplemental spending, $23.2 billion of which is to replenish defense articles and defense services provided to Ukraine. $11.3 billion is allocated for current U.S. military operations in the region. Appropriators have also set aside $13.8 billion for procurement and $26 million for overseeing aid and equipment provided to Ukraine. The bill also provides $143 million for nuclear nonproliferation, $481 million in refugee funding and $60 million to the State Department. $10 billion in economic assistance to Ukraine is repayable.

The Israel bill, meanwhile, contains over $26 billion in spending. Among the provisions in the Israel bill are $4 billion to replenish Iron Dome and David’s Sling missile defense systems, $1.2 billion for the Iron Beam defense system to “counter short-range rockets and mortar threats” and $3.5 billion for procurement. The bill also includes billions in aid, though the embattled U.N. Relief and Works Agency is barred from receiving funds.

Finally, the Indo-Pacific bill contains over $8 billion in spending, including $3.3 billion to develop submarine infrastructure and invest in dry dock construction and $2 billion in Foreign Military Financing Program for Taiwan and other key allies in the region. $1.9 billion was also allocated to replenish U.S. stocks.

Scroll down to On the Hill for lawmaker reactions to the bills.

BLINKEN TO BEIJING: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will head to China next week to meet with top Chinese officials amid tensions over trade, China’s relationship with Russia and Beijing’s aggressive moves against the Philippines in the South China Sea, our own PHELIM KINE, ERIN BANCO, NAHAL TOOSI and Alex report.

Blinken will leave for China on April 23 for a four-day trip, according to a Washington-based diplomat and three U.S. officials with knowledge of the secretary’s travel plans. The administration announced last week that Blinken would travel to Beijing “soon” and flagged it as a “major visit.”

The Philippines and U.S. are also planning to hold their most ambitious joint military exercise yet next week, WaPo’s REGINE CABATO and REBECCA TAN report, which might make the trip even more tense.

The exercises will take place in parts of the open sea claimed by China, officials told the Post. Over 16,000 soldiers will participate in the three-week drills, which will include four major activities simulating maritime and air attacks. Troops will practice seizing islands, transporting the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, using a new ship-based missile system and striking and sinking a decommissioned ship.

IRAN BRACING FOR ATTACK: Tehran is preparing for a possible counterattack from Israel that would target its territory or proxies in the region, The Wall Street Journal’s RORY JONES and SUMMER SAID report.

Those preparations include getting the air force ready for strikes, having the navy start escorting commercial Iranian ships in the Red Sea, and evacuating personnel from places in Syria where there are lots of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members.

Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU said he told the U.K. Foreign Secretary DAVID CAMERON and German Foreign Minister ANNALENA BAERBOCK, who were in Israel today, that Israel “will make our own decisions, and the State of Israel will do everything necessary in order to defend herself,” our own ANDREW McDONALD reports.

Cameron told reporters during the trip to Israel that it was “clear” Israel is “making a decision to act” on a counterattack following Iran’s weekend strikes, Andrew also reports. Israel has vowed to respond to Tehran, but it’s unclear exactly how an attack would unfold.

“We hope they do so in a way that does as little to escalate this as possible — and in a way that, as I said yesterday, is smart as well as tough,” he added.

Scroll down to Broadsides for more on Cameron’s outspokenness on foreign policy.

THE KREMLIN’S SECRET PLAYBOOK: A classified Russian foreign policy document obtained by The Washington Post’s CATHERINE BELTON reveals Moscow’s aggressive blueprint to undermine the United States and reshape the global order.

The addendum, dated April 2023, calls for an “offensive information campaign” across military, economic and psychological fronts against a U.S.-led “coalition of unfriendly countries.” It also seeks to expose the “vulnerable points” of adversaries to weaken them. The plan deems the Ukraine war’s outcome critical to resetting a “multipolar world” free from American dominance.

While Russia’s public policy speaks of “democratization,” the secret plan confirms suspicions of a hybrid war in the West. Those tactics include propaganda to divide America and Europe, support for isolationist and extremist forces, and alignment with China, Iran and North Korea to shift power.

RUSSIA LEAVES NAGORNO-KARABAKH: Nearly 2,000 Russian troops are leaving the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave as Moscow redirects its resources to the war in Ukraine, our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports.

Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV confirmed the withdrawal today, per state-run media. Six months ago, Russian troops stood idly by as Azerbaijani troops entered the ethnically-Armenian enclave in September. The move also comes as Armenia, once a close ally of Moscow in the Caucasus, has increasingly embraced the U.S and European Union.

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ELECTION 2024

STOP ME IF YOU THINK YOU’VE HEARD THIS ONE BEFORE: The Kremlin is ramping up disinformation efforts to interfere with the November election — primarily focused on undermining support for Ukraine in the ranks of U.S. leaders, according to a Microsoft report out today.

As our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!), Microsoft also noted that Russia’s efforts are not as pervasive at this point as they were in the run-up to past elections. That is likely due to the primary elections for president not being particularly competitive, it said.

“In the last 45 days, Russia has turned it on, this is later than in past election cycles,” CLINT WATTS, general manager of Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center, told reporters on a call Tuesday ahead of the report’s release.

The findings are the first to signal Russia’s intent to interfere in the 2024 U.S. elections, after past mass hacking and disinformation campaigns that attempted to skew previous federal elections, including the 2016 presidential race.

Keystrokes

CHINA LOBBIES FOR TIKTOK: The Chinese Embassy has held meetings with congressional staff to lobby against the legislation that would force a sale of TikTok, two of the Capitol Hill staffers told our own HAILEY FUCHS.

In meetings, the embassy downplayed the national security concerns with TikTok, two staffers said, and sought to align the app with American interests. In one meeting, the embassy said a ban on TikTok would harm U.S. investors who hold some ownership in ByteDance. In another, the embassy emphasized that not all ByteDance board members were Chinese nationals.

The embassy also sought to claim the company as Chinese, the staffers said, despite TikTok’s public efforts to distance itself from the origin of its founders. TikTok, unlike ByteDance, is based in Singapore and the United States. In one of the meetings, the embassy argued that the legislation amounted to a forced data transfer of a Chinese company, a House staffer said. In the other, the embassy argued that the effort was not fair to a Chinese company because the U.S. would not treat a company with a different national origin the same way, a Senate staffer said.

The Complex

TEAMING UP FOR TAIWAN: Republicans and Democrats are pushing to speed up weapons deliveries to Taiwan as the island nation suffers from a years-long, $19 billion backlog of U.S. systems, but the move isn’t without its risks, our own PHELIM KINE and PAUL McLEARY report.

The lawmakers, who are wary of China’s aggressive moves in the region, want to allow Taiwan to build some U.S.-designed systems themselves under license, in a bid to unclog the pipeline for fighter jets, tanks, drones and missiles. It’s a sign of the deep frustration among lawmakers as they watch Beijing rapidly bulk up its naval and air forces. On the U.S. side, supply-chain issues, workforce shortages and competing global priorities have complicated Washington’s ability to deliver military hardware to Taiwan.

Coproduction, however, carries risks, and experts cite concerns that the sensitive technology could be leaked to China, which already heavily harvests intelligence from Taiwan. Taiwan has probed dozens of cases of current or retired military officials implicated in spying for China in recent years.

On the Hill

THOUGHTS ON THE BILL: Rep. ROSA DeLAURO (D-Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, came out in support of the bills today, suggesting that Democrats may help Johnson get the bills over the finish line.

Moderate Republicans are voicing their support for the bills too — Rep. CARLOS GIMENEZ posted on X that the bills were “pro-America legislation” and added it “protects freedom at home and abroad.” And outgoing Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wisc.) said he’ll delay his resignation through the weekend if his vote is needed to pass the bills.

SPY BILL SCHMOOZING: The Biden administration is working to reassure wary senators that the reauthorization of Section 702 will not “expand the scope” of who can be targeted, our own BURGESS EVERETT reports.

In a memo distributed to Senate offices, the White House argues the reauthorization includes “explicit limitations” on how the updated law can be used, including hotels, restaurants and peoples’ houses. National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said today the language “is a technical fix designed to account for changing technological realities.”

Broadsides

‘PRIME MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS’: Cameron, the former British prime minister, has made a name for himself (again) after being tapped by RISHI SUNAK to become foreign secretary, standing out particularly for his outspoken views on Israel’s actions in Gaza.

As our own ESTHER WEBBER and SAM BLEWETT report, Cameron has been described inside government as the “prime minister of foreign affairs,” frequently threatening to overshadow his boss as Sunak battles endless political crises on the domestic front.

Concern among conservative lawmakers was triggered by what they saw as Cameron’s “problematic” comments at the end of January suggesting Britain would consider recognizing a Palestinian state to bring about an “irreversible” peace settlement.

Cameron has variously stated he was “worried” Israel may have breached international law; challenged its refusals to work toward a two-state solution; and warned that British support for Tel Aviv was “not unconditional.” Speaking with Sky News, Cameron said, “Countries have a right to respond when they feel they’ve suffered an aggression,” when asked if Iran had a right to respond to the attack on its consulate in Damascus.

One Foreign Office insider said officials see him as a “man in a hurry,” rushing to rehabilitate his personal legacy.

VENEZUELA SANCTIONS: The Biden administration is allowing sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas industry to take effect again in the wake of Venezuelan leader NICOLÁS MADURO’s crackdowns on the country’s opposition, our own MICHAEL STRATFORD and Eric report.

After the Maduro regime reached a deal with the opposition in Barbados to allow greater participation in the July elections and expand dialogue with opposition parties, the U.S. and other countries offered Caracas some temporary sanctions relief contingent on the fulfillment of the terms of the agreement. But in the wake of Caracas’ decision to bar two different opposition candidates from the polls and issue arrest warrants for opposition activists, the administration is going to let sanctions restart.

Transitions

— RICHARD ‘RICK’ MULLER was tapped as the director of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. Muller previously led the Department of Energy’s Quantum Systems Accelerator and managed the Advanced Microsystems Group at Sandia National Laboratories.

What to Read

— DAVID IGNATIUS, The Washington Post: Meet the shadowy general who has become a symbol of Ukraine’s defiance

— SIMON SHUSTER, Time: ‘Putin Is My Enemy.’ The revolution of YULIA NAVALNAYA

— FARAH STOCKMAN, The New York Times: Venezuelans are suffering, but more sanctions won’t help

Tomorrow Today

— Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: 2024 Central and Eastern Europe strategy summit

— Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: Georgia: the battle for democracy and euro-atlantic integration

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: The posture of the department of the army in review of the defense authorization request for FY2025 and the future years defense program

— Wilson Center’s Global Europe Program, 10 a.m.: How will Russia pay?: Making seized Russian financial assets work for Ukraine.

— Arab Center, 10 a.m.: Where does the Palestinian national movement go from here?

— Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: The FY2025 DHS budget: resources and authorities requested to protect and secure the homeland

— Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute, 11 a.m.: Border policy, organized crime, and migration between Mexico and the U.S.

— The RAND Corporation, 1:30 p.m.: How gendered perspectives shape national security

— Defense One, 2 p.m.: The Army’s efforts to protect against and defeat drone

— The Atlantic Council, 3:30 p.m.: An innovative UK strategic command

Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who Matt and Eric are also trying to oust from her job.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, whose job security is unparalleled.