Text Products for AFD Issued by CRP
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 071222
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
622 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 419 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

An upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Gulf of
Mexico is expected to remain quasi-stationary during the period,
while an upper level disturbance approaches the Four Corners
region today, then approaches the Central Plains Thursday
(deterministic output.) As evident by the proximity of the
foregoing upper level ridge, above normal temperatures will
persist over the CWA during the period. Near to slightly above
normal PWAT values are predicted over the CWA during the period.
Isentropic lift is expected to continue during the period, yet
condensation pressure deficits are predicted to remain fairly
high. Although the NBM suggests that precipitation will occur near
the coast Thursday, will lower PoPs to around 10 percent with no
precipitation. Expect the current thermodynamic structure over
the CWA to persist, with lower level moisture followed by dry
conditions aloft, and thus the risk of radiation fog will remain
during the early morning hours, especially over the Coastal
Plains, somewhat consistent with SREF probabilities. Expect a low
risk of rip currents during the period. Coastal flooding not
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 419 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

Key Messages:

 - Isolated to scattered showers possible mainly across eastern
   portions of South Texas Friday, then again Saturday and Sunday.

 - Cold front possible early to mid next week.

Not much has changed in the extended forecast with this forecast
package. Models continue to show high pressure holding firm across
the Gulf of Mexico Saturday afternoon before beginning to weaken as
a cold front stalls across Central/North Texas this weekend. With
high pressure in control over the Gulf, a warm moist airmass is
expected to continue advecting into South Texas with above normal
temperatures through Monday with more seasonal temperatures
returning Tuesday. With sufficient low-level moisture and light
winds at night, patchy to areas of fog will be possible Thursday
night across most of South Texas, with the possibility of
redevelopment Friday night. Isolated to scattered showers (20-35%
rain chances) will be possible Friday afternoon and then again
Saturday and Sunday across the Victoria Crossroads and the Coastal
Bend. Despite model disagreement with timing (GFS wetter and quicker
solution; ECMWF drier and slower solution), models continue to agree
with our next cold front sweeping across the region early to mid-
week next week with significantly cooler air in the wake of the
front. Highs behind the front are expected to drop into the 60s with
lows dropping into the 40s. Until then, overnight lows are expected
to remain warm and above normal with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

A mixture of MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions early this morning will
transition to predominate MVFR ceilings by mid/late morning,
followed by VFR during the afternoon. Light wind early this
morning becoming moderate onshore by late morning and continuing
to early evening. A transition to MVFR/IFR conditions and light
wind are expected after 03z Thursday to the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 419 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

Moderate onshore flow expected today and tonight, consistent with
deterministic output. Anticipate that patchy sea fog will occur
over the bays/nearshore waters during the early/mid morning hours,
as temperatures/dew points reach the corresponding SST values.
Moderate onshore flow is expected Thursday night and Friday before
increasing to more of a moderate to strong southerly flow Friday
night through Saturday. Winds are expected to relax to a more
moderate flow Saturday night before increasing to stronger levels
Monday ahead of our next cold front. Isolated to scattered showers
will be possible Friday afternoon and then again Saturday and
Sunday across bays and Gulf waters. Patchy to areas of fog will be
possible Thursday night, with the possibility of redevelopment
Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  68  80  66 /  10  10  10  10
Victoria          81  68  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
Laredo            80  68  80  65 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             83  67  83  63 /  10  10   0  10
Rockport          77  66  77  65 /  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           82  69  83  65 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        82  68  82  65 /  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       75  68  75  68 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ231>234-
     241>244-246-247.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...WC/87


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