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LONG RANGE FORECAST OUTLOOKS 4/18/2024

Presented by:

COLIN AND MOLLY MULLANE AT FULL CIRCLE REALTY

The Long Range Forecasts and outlooks are brought to you by Colin and Molly Mullane of Full Circle Real Estate. When it comes to real estate in Southern Oregon, Colin and Molly are the team to have on your side. They bring decades of knowledge and experince to you. Contact them for any questions you have about buying and selling. They would love to talk to you about it. Contact them at 541 621 9994, or connect with them by clicking here.

8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK

     

 

 

 

3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK

This is covers the time period of the 27th of April through May 10th. Temps go back to being warmer than average. We will see drier than average conditions for Coos, and Curry Counties and for the Cascades north of Diamond Lake. But, you can see white for all other areas. That means an equal chance to be wet, or dry. What that really means is.....average chances for precipitation for the time of the year.

 

 

       

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

LONG RANGE FORECASTS

 

 

I will no longer be doing seasonal long range forecasts. Too many people took it as gospel truth. I was getting the blame when they went wrong. I am now convinced that the methodology used by the traditional long range forecasters like Old Farmers Almanac have fatal flaws in them. Those are getting exposed. So, rather than "seasonal forecasts" we will be doing 90 day forecasts here. So, this one is going to be December through February. This is both the "wet season" in our part of the world...and Meteorological Winter. 

 

First up is the 90 day forecast from Oregon Department of Forestry Meteorologist Pete Parsons. Pete is a very good longer range forecaster. He is basing his forecasts on what has happened with years where we had similar climatic conditions. He has found that 1958, 1966, and 1973 had conditions much like we see now. Many times the solution to forecasting the future is to look at the past and similar conditions. Pete does this. Pete has a lot of information in his three month outlook. One of those things was seeing that in one of those years, Click on the second image below to read Pete's report.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Here is what NOAA/ National Weather Service is forecasting. You are going to see there is agreement with Pete about the next three months. Warmer than average, drier than average for the northwest portions o our forecast area.......Coos and Douglas Counties. .