In Part 3 of my week-long 2019 NFL preview, i‘’ll touch on 7 additional teams that intrigue the most this upcoming season, as well as a whole host of individual storylines and subplots pertaining to this season, in addition to my final Win-Loss and end-of-season awards predictions.

In case you missed them, here are Part 1 and Part 2.

Team-By-Team and Postseason Predictions

End Of Year Awards Predictions

• Most Valuable Player: Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia
• Offensive Player Of The Year: Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston
• Defensive Player Of The Year: Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland
• Offensive Rookie Of The Year: David Montgomery, RB, Chicago
• Defensive Rookie Of The Year: Ed Oliver, DT, Buffalo
• Comeback Player Of The Year: Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville

Ponderings And Plotlines For the 2019 Season

New England Is “Zagging” When Everyone Is “Zigging”

Bill Belichick sees your “the Air Raid is coming to the NFL” buzz and raises you with a “I’m going to feature an offense straight out of the 1980’s” buzzkill. With the NFL starting to go spread-crazy and pass-happy, New England Patriots appear set to feature an offense that’s going to be proverbial “three yards and a cloud of dust.”

And with good reason, mind you: they’re trying to protect their 42-year old quarterback — you might’ve heard of him; his name is Tom Brady — to ensure that he’s fully rested and ready for the postseason (which is all New England is playing for anyway, especially given their cupcake schedule this year — they have the second-easiest schedule in the NFL.). Before winning his 6th Super Bowl last season, between Week 8 through Week 16 of the regular season, he threw 1 or less touchdown passes in 6 of those 8 games, and also had less than 300 yards passing in 6 of those 8 games. Further, in two of New England’s last 5 road games, Brady failed to throw a touchdown pass.

Between New England drafting Sony Michel last year and Damien Harris this year, using “21” personnel (2 running backs, 1 tight end, and 2 wide receivers) on the 2nd most plays from scrimmage in 2018, and running twice as many plays using “23” personnel (2 running backs, 3 tight ends, and 0 wide receivers) twice as often as any NFL team last year (granted, they ran 20 plays with it, while the 2nd place team — Baltimore — ran 9 plays… but you get the point), the Patriots are kicking it straight old-school — run the football, milk the clock, and feature defense with a front seven that fits New England’s MO of big, strong, and nasty, and a secondary that’s as good as any in the league.

Can Kansas City Knock Out The AFC Bully?

I say it every single year, and i’ll say it once more — to borrow from the great Ric Flair: “to BE the man, you gotta BEAT the man.”

Patrick Mahomes can throw for a billion touchdowns and trillion yards (… no, I mean it: given the “looking like Neo in the Matrix”-level of play we saw from him last year, I really think he could throw for a billion touchdowns and trillion yards), Andy Reid could coax Kareem Hunt-circa-2017 numbers from the combination of Damien Williams, Darwin Thompson, and LeSean McCoy, and the Kansas City Chiefs could beat up on an AFC West that had one other good team that seems primed for a regression…

… and still none of that would matter, if they find themselves on the losing end of a postseason game against the New England Patriots.

The Chiefs placed their bet on “let’s focus on fixing the defense,” and rightfully so — they finished 26th in overall defensive DVOA last year, and dead last in rushing defense DVOA. That’s largely why four guys from their front seven on defense will be different this year, headlined by the Chiefs sending a 1st round pick plus pick swaps in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to get edge rusher Frank Clark. And, of course, they also replaced defensive coordinator Bob Sutton with Steve Spagnuolo.

All of that is well and good, but is it enough? Spagnuolo hasn’t coached a good defense in the better part of a decade. Nobody the Chiefs’ added on defense screams “we’re fixing our run defense.” Even after adding Tyrann Mathieu in free agency, nobody’s gonna be afraid of their secondary.

It wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprising to see Kansas City emerge with the #1 seed in the AFC Playoffs, and host the AFC Championship game in Arrowhead Stadium. And it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Chiefs come home, yet again, with nothing but the proverbial “Miss Congeniality” award.

Don’t Count Out Indianapolis

There’s no question that Andrew Luck’s retirement announcement came as a complete shock to the NFL world; it’s easily the most shocking “player in his prime suddenly retiring” instance alongside Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson. But it’s not entirely shocking, either. With his God-given intelligence (many people have said Luck he very well have an eidetic memory), Luck was one of those guys who always seemed like he could be just as successful if he were to do something else besides football.

Consider the fact that, at Stanford University, Luck was an Architectural Design major; I can tell you, with firsthand knowledge, that Architecture is one of the most academically rigorous and time intensive majors one can choose. So it’s not entirely surprising that Luck would be more apt to start the “next phase of his life,” especially given the unconscionable beating and grueling rehabilitation he’s had to endure during his 8-year NFL career. In that span, Luck sustained torn cartilage in 2 ribs, a partially torn abdomen, a lacerated kidney, a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder, a mysteriously lingering ankle injury that morphed into a calf injury (which was the injury that ultimately led to his retirement), and at least one documented concussion.

But with all of that being said: the idea that the Andrew Luck-less Indianapolis Colts are suddenly going to be one of the worst teams in the league, let alone a front-runner in the “Tank for Tua (Tagovailoa) Sweepstakes” is utterly and absolutely preposterous. This team might’ve lost one of the five most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, but they’re still too damn good to be looking at double-digit losses.

For one, Frank Reich is a really good coach (did we all forget that he was the offensive coordinator for the Super Bowl-winning Philadelphia Eagles?), and has assembled a damn good staff around him. Secondly, you can’t rave enough about the job General Manager Chris Ballard has done in terms of building this roster. To but it simply: this team is chock full of young building block-type players.

The offensive line went from “almost literally getting Andrew Luck killed” to “one of the five best lines in the NFL,” thanks to the additions of Quenton Nelson (who might already be one of the three best guards in the NFL) and Braden Smith (joining center Ryan Kelly). Linebacker Darius Leonard, a second-round pick in 2018, finished the year as the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year and a First-team All-Pro. The Colts slayed this most recent draft, stealing cornerback Rock Ya-Sin in the 2nd round, and adding a bunch of versatile players like linebackers Ben Banogu and Bobby Okereke, plus blindingly-fast receiver Parris Campbell, with their four picks on Day 2 of the Draft.

Of course, people will say “yeah, but what about the quarterback position?” And in fairness, that’s the only reason why I don’t have the Colts making the playoffs this season. But it’s not like Brissett — is who was already considered to be one of the best backups in the NFL — will still have the luxury of handing the football to running back Marlon Mack, who after returning from an early season injury last year, was one of the best running backs in the entire NFL. Over the course of the season, he ran for 1,068 rushing yards (at 4.9 yards per carry) and 10 touchdowns (in only 13 games). According to ProFootballFocus, he was among the top 10 running backs in the NFL in percentages of carries that either resulted in a first down or touchdown (27.1%).

Even without playing a single down yet, you could very easily make the argument that the Andrew Luck-less Colts are still a better team than the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. And depending on how much you trust the “let’s mortgage our entire future and duct tape together a playoff run this year year” version of the Houston Texans, there’s absolutely a world where the Colts could still sneak away with the AFC South crown at the end of the year.

Has New Orleans Really Recovered From The Way The 2018 Season Ended?

I really, strongly considered making New Orleans my pick to win the NFC for the second year in a row.

After all, they return what could be one of the 2 or 3 most loaded rosters in the entire conference, if not the NFL. Their only key personnel losses were running back Mark Ingram (a two-down, between-the-tackles banger — someone they can replace with Latavius Murray and still get 75%-80% of the same production) and defensive end Alex Okafor (that one hurt a little more, but that’s presumably why they drafted Marcus Davenport with their top pick in the 2018 NFL Draft).

On the “plus” side, they beefed up their defensive line by adding defensive linemen like Malcolm Brown and Mario Edwards Jr, and even gave Drew Brees another pass-catching option in tight end Jared Cook. And, of course, they still have two of the most coveted offensive players in the NFL in Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, and a secondary that’s chock-full of young talent.

And then I remembered what happened to New Orleans at the end of last year’s NFC Championship game.

Even as someone with no real vested interest in either team in said game, after witnessing the horrific Pass Interference non-call on Nickell Robey-Coleman of the Los Angeles Rams, I genuinely felt sick to my stomach. And if I, as an agnostic football fan, felt that way, imagine how it must have felt for people who actually play and coach for the Saints?

Sure, if it was just one devastating playoff exit, that’s one thing. But lest we forget: that’s the SECOND time the Saints were on the wrong end of unfathomable circumstances — with the year before being the “Minneapolis Miracle” (when wide receiver Stefon Diggs of the Minnesota Vikings scored the “walk off” 61-yard touchdown catch in the NFC Divisional Playoffs).

I genuinely believe the Saints’ ability to get over that emotional gut-punch will be their most fundamental question for 2019. To a man, I’m sure they’ll all tell you that the Pass Interference incident is in the past; but you simply don’t get over something like that.

How Long Can The LA Rams Keep This Up?

Speaking of the Rams: perhaps Karma is real, considering how Los Angeles advanced to Super Bowl LII, and put up an offensive stinkbomb the likes of which we haven’t seen in a while.

But diehard Rams fans — all 6 of them, anyway — will reassure you that this team is loaded with young talent. After all, they locked up defensive tackle Aaron Donald, running back Todd Gurley, and most recently quarterback Jared Goff, all to long-term deals. And they’ll return 16 of 22 starters from last year’s team, with two of those six changes arguably representing upgrades (safety Eric Weddle and outside linebacker Clay Matthews III).

Ok, great. But while the majority of us will go ahead and pencil them in for double-digit wins for the third year in a row, how does the looming “deconstruction” of this team factor in to what happens to it this year?

Even though the Rams enter this season somewhere in the middle of the NFL, in terms of salary cap space, here’s the list of guys who’ll be free agents at year’s end: left tackle Andrew Whitworth, defensive linemen Michael Brockers and Dante Fowler Jr., cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters, linebacker Cory Littleton, guard Austin Blythe, and even kicker Greg Zuerlein. That’s 7 of 22 starters, plus their starting kicker.

And it’s not like those guys coming off the books will free up a ton of money to bring several of them back, considering Goff’s salary will jump (his annual contract numbers are not available as of the time of this post), Donald’s cap number goes up by 50% (from $17.1M to $25M) and Gurley’s salary almost doubles ($9M to $17.25M) after this year.

You can reasonably justify Donald’s cap number, given his unquestioned dominance on the field. But the other two guys? I find it hard to really believe Goff is a $33M/year-type franchise quarterback, and the Rams might find out the answer to that question the hard way, if the offense is forced to rely on Goff with Gurley not playing because of injuries.

Anyone with vested interest in the Rams or Gurley (the latter especially for fantasy football purposes) should be scared poopless given Gurley’s chronic (if not deteriorating?) knee condition. The fact that the Rams used Gurley so sparingly down the stretch of the 2018 season and during the playoffs is well documented, and based on everything we’ve heard this offseason, there’s nothing suggesting that his knee has been “fixed.” There’s a reason the Rams traded up in the 3rd round of the 2019 NFL Draft to go get running back Darrell Henderson, who put up enormous statistics at the University of Memphis.

In an effort to preserve Gurley, head coach Sean McVay will be liberally borrowing the concept of “load management” from the NBA, likely with the goal of limiting Gurley’s workload during the course of the season (meaning they’ll use Henderson and Malcolm Brown more than we think). So that means there will be periods of time — extended ones, perhaps — where this offense is running through Goff.

Again, is that really a blueprint for success? I would say that such an outlook is hazy at best. And pretty soon, the offense might have to carry even more of a burden, because they may not be able to rely as much on a depleted defense.

And while all of this is based on a projection of the future, a lot of these questions could accelerate into the “immediate” future if the Rams end up being bitten by the injury bug.

Carolina’s Sneaky-Good Offense Could Be Even Better

How the Carolina Panthers’ offense fares in Year 2 of the Norv Turner era is a sneaky-underrated plot line heading into the season.

Turner was the rare “old dog who learned new tricks,” bringing a fresh — if not innovative — approach to the offense, which finished 11th in overall DVOA (and 2nd in rushing DVOA) even after trying to run Christian McCaffrey into the ground (how a 205lb player survived 326 touches while playing in all 16 games is beyond remarkable) and Cam Newton’s arm almost falling off over the latter portion of the season.

Now, instead of having to “learn” the offense, the Panthers’ offense can take that important next step towards “mastery” of the offense — and they looked prime to do so.

While Cam Newton spent a portion of yet another offseason recovering from last season’s injury maladies, he’s come into camp in excellent shape, admitting to feeling like he did in his younger 20’s after going vegan in the offseason. And he’s going to have one of the most robust groups of skill positions he’s had in quite some time.

On one side, there’s Curtis Samuel, who had over 500 combined yards and five touchdowns in 10 games last year, in what was effectively his rookie season. Second year tight end Ian Thomas finished his rookie season with a strong month of December, and looks positioned to take the job from the aging Greg Olsen.

And then there’s wide receiver DJ Moore, who’s set to join the illustrious line of “talented athletes from the University of Maryland whom the school accomplished absolutely nothing with, only to watch them achieve much greater success as a professional.” Moore finished his rookie season (in 2018) with the second most targets and receptions on the Panthers, including his final 8 game stretch where he had 36 receptions for 491 yards. Further, over the final seven weeks of the 2018 season, Moore had six games of seven-plus targets. He’s one of the most popular names among fantasy football “breakout players” lists, and with very good reason.

McCaffrey, obviously, hasn’t gone anywhere, and behind an offensive line that was somewhat shored up in the offseason, the Panthers have a chance to be one of the quietly fun offenses to watch this year.

The Worst Team In The NFL By The End Of This Season

While still examining teams that intrigue me in 2019, let’s jump to the polar opposite end of the spectrum — specifically, the team that I think finishes with the #1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

With all due respect to the Kliff Kingsbury-Kyler Murray bromance (and the mess with which they’re surrounded by, thanks to a General Manager who doesn’t know how to lay off the sauce), the unmitigated buffoonery of Jon Gruden, and the “pay no attention to us systematically stripping apart our roster of all discernible talent and believe us when we say we’re not tanking” modus operandi of the Miami Dolphins, my favorite to finish with the worst record in the NFL this year has to be the Cincinnati Bengals.

Even with the aforementioned stooges (seriously, the Oakland Raiders continue to defy any modicum of “having their shit together”), I can’t see a world where the Bengals win more than 5 games this year — and a 5–11 record would be on the optimistic end of projections. Conceptually, I understand the hiring of Zac Taylor, since every team in the NFL is trying to find ways to field innovative offenses (and thereby sell more tickets); I just hate the idea of hiring a guy who worked as an assistant for all of two years alongside Sean McVay, and everyone suddenly thinking he’s going to be a passable clone of him.

The schedule will do them no favors, considering they’ll play six games in a suddenly rough-and-tumble AFC North, and start out of the gates with a miserable 8-game start to the season.

But most relevantly: this roster is just in bad shape. AJ Green looks like he’s rapidly declining, given the lingering injury issues he’s had. An already-bad offensive line lost their first-round pick (Jonah Williams), who was supposed to shore up the left tackle spot. Cincinnati has two players you would rank among the top 10 players at their respective position in the NFL: defensive tackle Geno Atkins (who’ll turn 32 years old next spring) and running back Joe Mixon (who plays the most commoditized position in professional football).

And then there’s Andy Dalton, who isn’t getting any younger. If the Bengals cut him after this season, they’ll save almost $18 million in cap room — and incur no dead money salary cap hit in the process (translation: the odds that Dalton will be on the Bengals’ roster this season are the same odds as me being the #1 overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft). Plus, do you really think Taylor’s “rebuilding the Bengals” blueprint has Dalton’s name anywhere on it?

Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa might as well start looking for Real Estate in “The Queen City” from now.

Individual Players Who Intrigue Me In 2019

• Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston — Houston’s egregious lack of long-term asset management notwithstanding, I think Watson takes a big, big step forward this year —affirming himself among the “superstar” quarterbacks in the NFL, and maybe (or likely?) being included in the NFL’s MVP discussion. In 2018, Watson finished 11th in the NFL in passing yards, 12th in passing touchdowns, and added another 551 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. While those aren’t eye-popping numbers, consider the fact that he accomplished this while playing behind the NFL’s worst pass-blocking offensive line in 2018 (a position group that the Texans have neglected to a Ryan Grigson-esque extent), and having literally only one viable outlet at which he could throw the football (DeAndre Hopkins, aka the best wide receiver in the game today). Now, imagine what Watson can accomplish with his first “healthy” offseason under his belt (he’s spent his first two offseasons rehabbing from injuries), receiving even a modicum of protection on his blind side thanks to Laremy Tunsil, getting some level of consistent availability (let alone production) from guys like Will Fuller and/or Keke Coutee and/or Kenny Stills, and utilizing his first out-of-the-backfield pass-catching threat in Duke Johnson Jr.?
• Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville — I love the “bounce back” story that’s ready to be told about Fournette. He’s like the textbook version of a top draft pick having a huge rookie season followed by a disastrous sophomore slump. Between coming into camp out of shape, suffering a lingering injury that drew the ire of his coaching staff, and then drawing even more ire from the coaches and front office thanks to his on-field and off-the-field antics, last year was basically a Murphy’s Law-type season for Fournette. That’s why I love— and so should any other fan of the “Rocky” movies (especially Rocky III and Rocky IV) — how Fournette reconnected with his old trainer from LSU at season’s end, relocated to a remote part of the country where he spent weeks and months doing nothing but training, and dumped all the sycophants out of his life. By nearly any account, he’s come into training camp for the Jaguars in his best shape as a pro, seemingly with a far more mature and professional approach to the game. Even if Fournette got back to the way he played as a rookie, that would be a huge lift for the Jaguars offense.
• Sam Darnold, QB, New York — Count me among those who are looking for seats on an increasingly jam-packed Sam Darnold bandwagon. For one, while it may seem counterintuitive, I do believe the New York Jets will try to get running back Le’Veon Bell as many touches as humanly possible; that will take a ton of pressure off of Darnold, ensuring he doesn’t have to “do it all himself.” And for another, I love Darnold’s supporting cast. Even with a rookie quarterback under center, and a lackluster performance by basically the entire team, wide receiver Robby Anderson still had 50 receptions for 752 yards and 6 touchdowns in 14 games, and was one of only seven wide receivers to have more than 300 receiving yards over the last four games. The Jets added wide receiver Jamison Crowder to be their slot guy, and he already figures to be a reliable presence and target-monster for Darnold. Quincy Enunwa, when healthy, presents an interesting piece because of his versatility (he has some experience lining up at any receiver spot). Even tight end Chris Herndon is an athletic, under-the-radar pass catching option who could be primed for something of a breakout (once he returns from suspension). Adam Gase’s reputation for getting the most out of his quarterbacks is well documented, and that’s exactly why he was brought to New York. I liked him coming out of USC, and I’m happy to have been one of the early investors on “Sam Darnold Island.”
• Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay — Speaking of fake Real Estate investments: I’m still not selling my badly depreciated bungalow property on Ronald Jones II island. For one, I simply believe in his talent too damn much; there’s no way that one of the most electric running backs in college football suddenly forgot how to find daylight. If nothing else, explain to me how an offense can meaningfully convince anyone that they’re going to employ Peyton Barber as their RB1, especially after coming off a season in which he was ranked 41st (out of 47 qualified running backs) in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR). I think the combination of “first year in a new location blues” (something he suffered at USC before exploding as one of the nation’s best running backs), getting a year’s worth of experience in understanding the difference in preparation in the college vs. pro game, being rid of a coaching staff that was probably overmatched last season, and getting the requisite boost of confidence from the new coaching staff, will all work in his favor. He’s my darkhorse contender for the NFL’s “Comeback Player Of The Year” award.
• David Montgomery, RB, Chicago — I’ve always hated the click-baity “who is this year’s version of [breakout star from last year]?”-type articles; it’s recency bias at its worst. Just because a rookie QB/mid-round RB/late-round WR “broke out” one year, doesn’t mean it’s going to be an annual occurrence. That being said, I do think a lot of accurate parallel’s can be drawn between rookie running back David Montgomery of the Chicago Bears, and the rookie season from Kareem Hunt of the Kansas City Chiefs (in 2017). Obviously, we know that Matt Nagy was the offensive coordinator in Kansas City in 2017, and now the head play-caller in Chicago. And between the team’s plans to use fellow running back Tarik Cohen more as a receiver/”in-space” guy, coupled with Montgomery’s preseason performances (and the coaching staff being pleasantly surprised with this receiving abilities out of the backfield), there’s a great chance that Montgomery adds his name to the recent boom of talented young running backs in the NFL.
• Noah Fant, TE, Denver — I’m quietly bullish on Fant, the first round pick for the Denver Broncos this year, even if I loathe the guy who’ll be throwing him passes. TJ Hockensen’s dual-threat combination (pass catching and blocking) generated more pre-NFL Draft buzz, but there were plenty of people who believed tight end Fant might’ve been the more valuable “weapon,” especially as a pass catcher. I’m not very optimistic about either one of the Broncos’ young receivers from the 2018 NFL Draft class (Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton), and i’m not buying the breaks on the recent “Emmanuel Sanders looks amazing even after tearing his Achilles’ tendon less than a year ago” narrative that’s been making the rounds. Translation? I think plenty of targets go in Fant’s direction, particularly from a quarterback with a demonstrated penchant for targeting his tight end in Joe Flacco.

Rajan Nanavati is the editor of HailToTheDistrict.com. You can follow Rajan on Twitter, find the HailToTheDistrict Podcast here, and/or view his writing archives here.