2024 NFL Draft: Here’s Why Brock Bowers Should Not Be a Top 10 Pick

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers has been called a “generational talent” and mocks far and wide have him as a top 10 pick in this week’s NFL draft. There’s a simple reason why any team drafting him that high would be making a mistake:

He’s a tight end.

History supports the idea that using a high draft pick on a tight end is a wasted pick. So often, a tight end’s success in the NFL is dependent on what the rest of the offense looks like. Add to that the fact that so many great tight ends have been drafted outside of Round 1 and, well, it’s just not worth risking that draft capital.

As “can’t-miss” a prospect as Bowers may be, keep in mind that draft gurus were gushing even more about Florida tight end Kyle Pitts heading into the 2021 draft. Maybe it’s too soon to call Pitts a bust – heck, he had 1,026 yards as a rookie, joining Hall of Famer Mike Ditka as the only rookie tight ends to top 1,000 yards.

But Pitts hasn’t done much since then. He’s got 149 receptions and six touchdowns in three seasons. Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth, who was drafted in the second round in 2021 – 51 spots behind Pitts – has 151 receptions and 11 TDs.

Think of it this way: Tight ends aren’t fast enough to be wide receivers, and they’re not big and strong enough to be offensive linemen. So if you could get a good receiver or offensive lineman in the first round, that pick would be more valuable than a tight end.

Not to pile on against the Pitts pick, but just take a look at the next eight players drafted in 2021 after the Atlanta Falcons took Pitts at 4:

5. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals
6. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins
7. Penei Sewell, OT, Lions
8. Jaycee Horn, CB, Panthers
9. Patrick Surtain II, Broncos
10. DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles
11. Justin Fields, QB, Bears
12. Micah Parsons, LB, Cowboys

With the possible exception of Fields, any players above that the Falcons wouldn’t rather have than Pitts? Sure, it’s hindsight, but still.

In the history of the draft, there have only been 14 tight ends that were top 10 picks. Ditka is the only one in the Hall of Fame. There are a few good players in that mix, including T.J. Hockenson, but there are more players on the list who are utterly forgettable.

This list goes even further. Here are all the tight ends that were top 20 draft picks. In some cases, we’ll include more successful tight ends that went later that year:

2021
Kyle Pitts, Falcons, 4th

2019
T.J. Hockenson, Lions 8^th
Noah Fant, Broncos 20^th

2017
O.J. Howard, Buccaneers 19^th
(George Kittle was a fifth-round pick)

2014
Eric Ebron, Lions 10^th

2009
Brandon Pettigrew, Lions 20^th
(Jared Cook was a third-rounder)

2006
Vernon Davis, 49ers 6^th

2004
Kellen Winslow, Browns 6^th
(Chris Cooley was a third-rounder)

2002
Jeremy Shockey, Giants 14^th

2000
Bubba Franks, Packers 14^th

1997
Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs 13^th

1993
Irv Smith, Saints 20^th

1992
Derek Brown, Giants 14^th
Johnny Mitchell, Jets 15^th
(Mark Chmura was a sixth-rounder)

1998
Keith Jackson, Eagles 13^th

1984
David Lewis, Lions 20^th

1983
Tony Hunter, Bills 12^th

1981
Willie Scott, Chiefs 14^th

1980
Junior Miller, Falcons 7^th

1979
Kellen Winslow, Chargers 13^th

1978
Ken McAfee, 49ers 7^th
(Ozzie Newsome was a first-rounder, 23^rd overall)

1975
Russ Francis, Patriots 16^th

1974
J.V. Cain, Cardinals 7^th

(Dave Casper was a second-rounder)

1973
Charlie Young, Eagles 6^th
Paul Seymour, Bills 7^th
Billy Joe Dupree, Cowboys 20th

1972
Riley Odoms, Broncos 5^th

1970
Steve Zabel, Eagles 6^th
Rich McGeorge, Packers 16^th

1969
Ted Kwalik, 49ers 7^th

1967
Cas Banaszek, 49ers 11^th

1966
Milt Morin, Browns 14^th

1961|
Mike Ditka, Bears 5^th

Looking at the top 10 tight ends in receiving yards in 2023, four were first-rounders (though three of those were picked 23^rd or later). On average, they were taken 56th overall:

George Kittle, 49ers (fifth round, 146th overall)
Travis Kelce, Chiefs (third round, 63rd overall)
Evan Engram, Jaguars (first round, 23rd overall)
T.J. Hockenson, Vikings (first round, 8th overall)
Sam LaPorta, Lions (second round, 34^th overall)
David Njoku, Browns (first round, 29^th overall)
Trey McBride, Cardinals (second round, 55^th overall)
Jake Ferguson, Cowboys (fourth round, 129^th overall)
Cole Kmet, Bears (second round, 43^rd overall)
Dalton Kincaid, Bills (first round, 25^th overall)

Want more proof that you’re better off waiting in the draft to grab a tight end? Here are the nine tight ends in the Pro Football Hall of Fame and when they were drafted:

Dave Casper (second round, 45th overall)
Mike Ditka (first round, fifth overall)
Tony Gonzalez (first round, 13th overall)
John Mackey (second round, 19th overall)
Ozzie Newsome (first round, 23rd overall)
Charlie Sanders (third round, 74th overall)
Shannon Sharpe (seventh round, 192nd overall)
Jackie Smith (10th round, 129th overall)
Kellen Winslow (first round, 13th overall)

Many observers thought that a 10^th tight end should have been inducted this year, but Antonio Gates fell just short in his first year of eligibility. He’ll probably get in next year. And guess what… Gates wasn’t even drafted at all!

So, sure, Bowers might turn out to be a great NFL tight end. But if you’re a New York Jets fan looking at what the team will do with the 10^th overall pick, looking at this history, do you want them to take Bowers or a much-needed offensive lineman?

The answer seems pretty clear.