Time posted: 1:42 am

Breaking Down Another Ugly System

Good Thursday, friends and neighbors! Our slow-moving storm system is beginning to impact the weather across Kentucky today. This system looks to bring rain before we can get in on the potential for winter weather by Saturday and early Sunday.

The first round of precipitation works into western and southern parts of the state later today and is in the form of rain. Here is your regional radar to track the action…

Here’s a breakdown of how things may play out:

  • Rain increases tonight and carries us into Friday. Rain may be heavy at times across the central and east.
  • Temps will spike to near 50 across the east with the west seeing temps crashing into the 30s.
  • Our upper level low spins on top of us through Saturday as a surface low takes control to our east. This allows for colder air to move in and this should be cold enough for snow showers and periods of light snow.
  • Temps are marginal for accumulations, but some slushy sticking snows will be possible into early Sunday.

The NAM continues to show this scenario well through 7am Sunday…

The Hi Res NAM goes through 7AM Saturday, but is showing a similar look…

Here’s the snow map from the NAM through 7am Sunday…

Here’s the Canadian…

The Euro

Meanwhile, the GFS continues to be a complete outlier with this entire storm…

Once this one pulls away, another system looks to move in here for Wednesday and Thursday. That one could bring another messy setup with rain and some snow.

I will have your usual updates later today. Have a great Thursday and take care.

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Time posted: 7:44 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. My time is short, but I’m still dropping by for an update on the storm system ahead of us. This impacts our region from Thursday through Sunday and will bring rain and some snow into our part of the world.

My overall thoughts from the past several days are still the same. There could be a touch of frozen stuff in the far west tonight, but rain moves in Thursday into Thursday night. Temps surge across the east into Friday as rain and gusty winds roll on.

As our upper level flow takes control and our new low takes over to our east Saturday, rain and some wet snow will be possible. A few periods of light snow and snow showers would be possible through Sunday. Can we get some slushy accumulations from this? Maybe, but the temps are marginal, so we shall see.

One thing is for sure, the GFS is taking a beating with this overall setup as it is already missing the snow falling in the Mississippi Valley. Here’s the current snow forecast through the weekend…

Here’s the NAM…

Notice how the model continues to throw some wraparound wet snows in here by Friday night and continues that through the end of the run Saturday night…

The Hi Res NAM only goes through 1am Saturday, but is suggesting the same…

The European Model has a similar look…

Notice how the snow forecast to our west is MUCH different from the GFS, but matches the NAM…

This is a pattern that isn’t very cold looking, but could be cold enough as we get several southern storm systems over the next few weeks.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 12:11 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Temps are slowly coming out of the deep freeze and now we focus our attention on a system moving in later this week into the weekend. This one looks to bring rain and some snow our way as an active southern storm track gets reestablished.

Let’s start with the cold from this morning. Lows were close to singles in some areas…

The system later this week continues to have an impact timeline from late Thursday through Sunday. The NAM  goes through 7pm Saturday evening and you can see how wraparound light snows begin to show up as early as Friday night…

Here’s the snow forecast from the NAM through the same time…

The Canadian has a similar thought process with some wraparound flakes going through Sunday with a second little system on Monday… Here’s the snow map

The GFS continues to be the outlier with the overall thermal setup for the entire storm system…

It still can’t find much snow to our west and northwest…

The GFS Ensembles seem to have a better handle on that…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm then on KWC later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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