Presidential election in Illinois, 2016

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General election in Illinois
  Date: November 8, 2016
2016 winner: Hillary Clinton
Electoral votes: 20
2012 winner: Barack Obama (D)
Democratic Primary
  Date: March 15, 2016
Winner: Hillary Clinton
Republican Primary
  Date: March 15, 2016
Winner: Donald Trump
Down ballot races in Illinois
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Illinois held an election for the president of the United States on November 8, 2016. The Democratic and Republican parties held primary elections for president on March 15, 2016.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Hillary Clinton won Illinois in the general election.
  • In 2016, Illinois had 20 electoral votes, which was 3.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 7.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
  • Between 1900 and 2016, Illinois cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 83.33 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Illinois supported Republican and Democratic candidates for president equally. The state, however, favored Democrats in every election between between 2000 and 2016.
  • Presidential primary elections in Illinois took place on March 15, 2016. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary with 50.6 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 38.8 percent.

    • General election candidates and results

    See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

    The candidate list below is based on an official list on the Illinois State Board of Elections website. The candidate names below appear in the order in which they were listed on the official list—not necessarily the order in which they appeared on the ballot in November. Write-in candidates were not included in the list below.

    Presidential candidates on the ballot in Illinois

    ☑ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic)
    ☐ Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican)
    ☐ Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)
    ☐ Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (Green)

    Results

    U.S. presidential election, Illinois, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 55.8% 3,090,729 20
         Republican Donald Trump/Mike Pence 38.8% 2,146,015 0
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 3.8% 209,596 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 1.4% 76,802 0
         - Write-in votes 0.2% 13,282 0
    Total Votes 5,536,424 20
    Election results via: Illinois State Board of Elections

    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, in 34 states.[1] Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government for the next four years.

    Historical election trends

    See also: Presidential election accuracy

    Below is an analysis of Illinois's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Presidential election voting record in Illinois, 1900-2016

    Between 1900 and 2016:

    • Illinois participated in 30 presidential elections.
    • Illinois voted for the winning presidential candidate 83.33 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 72.31 percent.[2]
    • Illinois voted Democratic 50 percent of the time and Republican 50 percent of the time.

    Most accurate states

    See also: Presidential election accuracy data

    Below is the list of the most accurate states when it comes to voting for the winning presidential candidate.

    Most accurate states, 1900-2016
    State Percentage of accuracy
    Ohio 93.33% (28 out of 30 elections)
    New Mexico 88.89% (24 out of 27 elections)
    Nevada 86.67% (26 out of 30 elections)
    Missouri 86.67% (26 out of 30 elections)
    Illinois 83.33% (25 out of 30 elections)

    Presidential election voting record in Illinois, 2000-2016

    *An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

    Election results

    2012

    U.S. presidential election, Illinois, 2012
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBarack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent 57.6% 3,019,512 20
         Republican Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan 40.7% 2,135,216 0
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Jim Gray 1.1% 56,229 0
         Green Jill Stein/Howie Hawkins 0.6% 30,222 0
         Write-in Write-in candidates 0% 835 0
    Total Votes 5,242,014 20
    Election results via: Illinois State Board of Elections

    2008

    U.S. presidential election, Illinois, 2008
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBarack Obama/Joe Biden 61.9% 3,419,348 21
         Republican John McCain/Sarah Palin 36.8% 2,031,179 0
         Independent Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez 0.6% 30,948 0
         Libertarian Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root 0.4% 19,642 0
         New John Joseph Polachek/None 0% 1,149 0
         Green Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente 0.2% 11,838 0
         Constitution Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle 0.1% 8,256 0
         Write-in Write-in candidates 0% 11 0
    Total Votes 5,522,371 21
    Election results via: Illinois State Board of Elections

    Electoral votes

    See also: Electoral College

    The president of the United States is not elected by popular vote but rather by electors in the Electoral College. In fact, when Americans vote for president, they are actually voting for a slate of electors selected by members of Democratic and Republican state parties or nominated in some other fashion. Under this system, which is laid out in Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, each state is allocated one electoral vote for every member of their congressional delegation, meaning one for each member of the U.S. House and one for each of their two Senators.

    Illinois electors

    In 2016, Illinois had 20 electoral votes. Illinois's share of electoral votes represented 3.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 7.4 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president.

    "Faithless electors"

    The U.S. Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes, but, in general, electors are expected to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors.

    Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.[4][5]

    Illinois was one of 20 states in 2016 without a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.

    Down ballot races

    See also: Illinois elections, 2016

    Below is a list of down ballot races in Illinois covered by Ballotpedia in 2016.

    Primary election

    See also: March 15 presidential primary elections and caucuses, 2016

    Quick facts

    Democrats: Republicans
    • 2016 Republican winner: Donald Trump
    • Poll leader: Donald Trump
    • 2012 Republican winner: Mitt Romney
    • Type: Open Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Mixed
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 69

    Democrats

    Hillary Clinton won the Illinois Democratic primary election, beating Bernie Sanders by less than two percentage points. Clinton carried Cook County, where the city of Chicago is located, 54 to 46 percent. African American voters made up 28 percent of the Democratic electorate in Illinois, according to exit poll data. Clinton won African Americans 70 to 30 percent over Sanders.[6]

    Republicans

    Donald Trump won the Illinois Republican primary election with almost 40 percent of the vote. Ted Cruz came in second, followed by John Kasich and Marco Rubio. Like Clinton in the Democratic race, Trump carried Cook County by a substantial margin, with 40 percent of the vote. Kasich took second in Cook County with almost 25 percent. Trump outperformed his rivals with almost every major demographic in the state. He narrowly lost evangelical Christian voters to Cruz, 35 to 38 percent. He also lost voters who identified as "very conservative" to Cruz, 36 to 49 percent.[6]

    March 15 primaries

    Illinois was one of five states that held presidential primary elections on March 15, 2016.

    2016 primary results

    Democrats

    Illinois Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton 50.6% 1,039,555 79
    Bernie Sanders 48.6% 999,494 77
    Willie Wilson 0.3% 6,565 0
    Martin O'Malley 0.3% 6,197 0
    Larry Cohen 0.1% 2,407 0
    Roque De La Fuente 0.1% 1,802 0
    David Formhals 0% 25 0
    Brian O'Neill 0% 2 0
    Totals 2,056,047 156
    Source: The New York Times and Illinois State Board of Elections

    Republicans

    Illinois Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump 38.8% 562,464 54
    Ted Cruz 30.2% 438,235 9
    John Kasich 19.7% 286,118 6
    Marco Rubio 8.7% 126,681 0
    Ben Carson 0.8% 11,469 0
    Jeb Bush 0.8% 11,188 0
    Rand Paul 0.3% 4,718 0
    Chris Christie 0.2% 3,428 0
    Mike Huckabee 0.2% 2,737 0
    Carly Fiorina 0.1% 1,540 0
    Rick Santorum 0.1% 1,154 0
    JoAnn Breivogel 0% 16 0
    Totals 1,449,748 69
    Source: The New York Times and Illinois State Board of Elections

    Primary candidates

    Democrats[7]

    Hillary Clinton
    Larry Cohen


    Roque De La Fuente
    Martin O'Malley


    Bernie Sanders
    Willie Wilson

    Republicans[7]

    Jeb Bush
    Ben Carson
    Chris Christie
    Ted Cruz


    Carly Fiorina
    Mike Huckabee
    John Kasich
    Rand Paul


    Marco Rubio
    Rick Santorum
    Donald Trump

    Polls

    Democratic primary

    Democratic Party Democratic Party presidential primary polling (Illinois)
    Poll Hillary Clinton Bernie SandersUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Public Policy Polling
    March 11-12, 2016    		48%45%7%+/-3.9627
    CBS News/YouGov
    March 9-11, 2016    		46%48%6%+/-5.5756
    NBC/WSJ/Marist
    March 4-10, 2016    		51%45%4%+/-4.3529
    We Ask America
    March 7, 2016    		62.3%25%12.7%+/-3.11994
    Chicago Tribune
    March 2-6, 2016    		67%25%8%+/-4.1600
    Southern Illinois University
    February 15-20, 2016    		51%32%16%+/-4.7422
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
    Democratic Party Democratic Party presidential favorability polling (Illinois)
    Poll Hillary Clinton Bernie SandersJoe BidenMartin O'MalleyJim WebbLincoln ChafeeUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Public Policy Polling
    July 20-21, 2015
    		60%23%0%4%3%1%9%+/-4.9409
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Republican primary

    Republican Party Republican Party presidential primary polling (Illinois)
    Poll Donald Trump Ted CruzJohn KasichMarco RubioBen CarsonUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    CBS News/YouGov
    March 9-11, 2016    		38%34%16%11%0%1%+/-4.4805
    NBC/WSJ/Marist
    March 4-10, 2016    		34%25%21%16%0%4%+/-4.8421
    We Ask America
    March 7, 2016    		32.64%19.9%18.41%11.34%0%17.71%+/-3.091,009
    Chicago Tribune
    March 2-6, 2016    		32%22%18%21%0%7%+/-4.1600
    WeAskAmerica
    February 24, 2016    		38.44%15.87%9.31%21.21%0%15.18%+/-31,311
    Southern Illinois University
    February 15-20, 2016    		28%15%13%14%6%24%+/-5.6306
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
    Republican Party Republican Party presidential favorability polling (Illinois)
    Poll Scott Walker Donald TrumpJeb BushChris ChristieBen CarsonMarco RubioMike HuckabeeRand PaulTed CruzCarly FiorinaUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Public Policy Polling
    July 20-21, 2015
    		23%18%11%8%7%6%5%5%4%3%10%+/-5.1369
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Delegates

    Delegate selection

    See also: 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules

    Democratic Party

    Democratic Party Logo.png

    Illinois had 183 delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Of this total, 156 were pledged delegates. National party rules stipulated how Democratic delegates in all states were allocated. Pledged delegates were allocated to a candidate in proportion to the votes he or she received in a state's primary or caucus. A candidate was eligible to receive a share of the state's pledged delegates if he or she won at least 15 percent of the votes cast in the primary or caucus. There were three types of pledged Democratic delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates, and party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs). Congressional district delegates were allocated proportionally based on the primary or caucus results in a given district. At-large and PLEO delegates were allocated proportionally based on statewide primary results.[8][9]

    Twenty-seven party leaders and elected officials served as unpledged delegates. These delegates were not required to adhere to the results of a state's primary or caucus.[8][10]

    Illinois superdelegates

    See also: Superdelegates from Illinois, 2016 and Superdelegates and the 2016 Democratic National Convention

    Republican Party

    Logo-GOP.png

    Illinois had 69 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, 54 were district-level delegates (three for each of the state's 18 congressional districts). According to the Republican National Committee, Illinois' district-level delegates were "elected directly on the primary ballot and bound to the candidate for whom they [declared] themselves."[11][12]

    Of the remaining 15 delegates, 12 served at large. Illinois' at-large delegates were allocated on a winner-take-all basis; the candidate who won a plurality of the statewide primary vote received all of the state's at-large delegates. In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) served as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention. The RNC delegates were required to pledge their support to the winner of the state's primary.[11][12]

    Republican delegates

    See also: Republican delegates from Illinois, 2016 and RNC delegate guidelines from Illinois, 2016

    Presidential voting history

    Illinois presidential election results (1900-2020)

    • 16 Democratic wins
    • 15 Republican wins
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
    Winning Party R R R D R R R R D D D D D R R D D R R R R R R D D D D D D D D

    State profile

    USA Illinois location map.svg
    Demographic data for Illinois
     IllinoisU.S.
    Total population:12,839,047316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):55,5193,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:72.3%73.6%
    Black/African American:14.3%12.6%
    Asian:5%5.1%
    Native American:0.2%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
    Two or more:2.2%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:16.5%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:87.9%86.7%
    College graduation rate:32.3%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$57,574$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:16.8%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Illinois.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    Presidential voting pattern

    See also: Presidential voting trends in Illinois

    Illinois voted for the Democratic candidate in all six presidential elections between 2000 and 2020.

    Pivot Counties (2016)

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, 11 are located in Illinois, accounting for 5.34 percent of the total pivot counties.[13]

    Pivot Counties (2020)

    In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Illinois had 11 Retained Pivot Counties, 6.08 percent of all Retained Pivot Counties.

    More Illinois coverage on Ballotpedia

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    2. ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2016. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
    3. ↑ This number refers to the number of times that the state voted for the winning presidential candidate between 2000 and 2016.
    4. ↑ Archives.gov, "About the Electors," accessed July 28, 2016
    5. ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: How it works in contemporary presidential elections," April 13, 2016
    6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 CNN, "Illinois exit polls," March 16, 2016
    7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate List General Primary - 3/15/2016," accessed January 8, 2016
    8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 Democratic National Committee, "2016 Democratic National Convention Delegate/Alternate Allocation," updated February 19, 2016
    9. ↑ The Green Papers, "2016 Democratic Convention," accessed May 7, 2021
    10. ↑ Democratic National Committee's Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection, "Unpledged Delegates -- By State," May 27, 2016
    11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 Republican National Committee, "2016 Presidential Nominating Process," accessed October 6, 2015
    12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 CNN.com, "Republican National Convention roll call vote," accessed July 20, 2016
    13. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
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