Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal will square off in the semifinal of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 10:00 pm on ESTADIO. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.78
Rafael Nadal -> 2.13
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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Rafael Nadal
This will be the 6th time that Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal clash against each other. The head to head is 4-1 for Nadal (see full H2H stats), 3-0 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Nadal won 2-6 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 7-5 in the final in at the Australian Open back in January 2022.
Highlights Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev – Australian Open 30-January-2022
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18-4 | 18-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 28-10 | 14-4 | 0-2 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2 (career-high), the Russian got to the semifinal after defeating Benoit Paire 6-3 6-4, Pablo Andujar 6-1 6-2 and Yoshihito Nishioka 6-2 6-3.
In the quarter, Daniil had a good straight sets win against Nishioka (6-2 6-3). During the match, Medvedev scored 53 points vs Nishioka’s 37. Daniil was exceptionally aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Talking about the service games, Medvedev scored 12 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve 3 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Medvedev put 67% of his first serves in, winning 69% (22/32) of the points behind his 1st serve and 31% (5/16) on the 2nd serve. Medvedev broke Nishioka 6 times after converting 75% of his break points (6/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Russian hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this tournament to conquer 60% of the points he played.
Medvedev has a good win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (391-163). 12-2 on hard in 2022. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Medvedev has an overall 167-56 match record in the last years on hard.
The Russian’s best result of the current year was reaching the final at the Australian Open .
Medvedev has an aggregate 12-2 win-loss record in 2022, 12-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Acapulco
The Russian has never competed in this tournament before.
Rafael Nadal
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-8 | 23-3 | 10-2 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-5 | 5-2 | 19-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 27-7 | 13-3 | 9-1 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, Nadal reached the semifinal after beating Denis Kudla 6-3 6-2, Stefan Kozlov 6-0 6-3 and Tommy Paul 6-0 7-65.
In the quarter, Nadal had a good straight sets win against Paul (6-0 7-65). During the match Nadal scored 82 points vs Paul’s 61. Rafael was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.
About the serving games, Nadal scored 2 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Rafael Nadal lost the serve 3 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Nadal put 58% of his first serves in, winning 69% (27/39) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (13/28) on the 2nd serve. Rafael broke Paul 6 times after converting 43% of his break points (6/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Rafael hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 61% of the points he played.
His best result of the current season was conquering the title in in Melbourne where he overcame Maxime Cressy in the final 7-6(6) 6-3 and in at the Australian Open where he overcame Daniil Medvedev in the final 2-6 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 7-5.
Rafael has a composed 13-0 win-loss record in 2022, 13-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 51 | 51 |
| Pts | 188-127 | 195-125 |
| Total Points | 315 | 320 |
| Winners | 72 | 77 |
| %Winners | 38% | 39% |
Both Medvedev and Nadal played 3 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Medvedev and Nadal have played the same amount of sets 6. They also played the same amount of games (51). The Russian scored 72 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Rafael bagged 77 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 22 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 7.3 | 4 |
| 1st in | 94/158 | 97/147 |
| %1st in | 59% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 72/94 | 77/97 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 30/64 | 29/50 |
| %2nd pts | 47% | 58% |
Medvedev blasted 22 aces (7.3 per match). Nadal bagged 12 aces (4 per match). Medvedev won 77% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Nadal won 79% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Medvedev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 14 |
| Converted | 14/23 | 14/25 |
| % Converted | 61% | 56% |
| Conceded | 10 | 8 |
| Saved | 6 | 4 |
| % Saved | 60% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 |
The Russian broke his opponents 14 times with a 61% conversion rate. The Russian lost his serve 4 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded. Rafael broke his opponents 14 times with a 56% conversion rate. Rafael conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.
| Medvedev | |||||
| R1 Paire |
R2 Andujar |
1/4 Nishioka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-1 6-2 | 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 15 | 17 | 51 | |
| pts | 80-61 | 55-29 | 53-37 | 188-127 | |
| Total points | 141 | 84 | 90 | 315 | |
| Winners | 28 | 22 | 22 | 72 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 40% | 42% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 7 | 12 | 22 | |
| Double Faults | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 37/64 | 25/46 | 32/48 | 94/158 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 54% | 67% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 28/37 | 22/25 | 22/32 | 72/94 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 88% | 69% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/27 | 12/21 | 5/16 | 30/64 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 57% | 31% | 47% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 6 | 14 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 4/6 | 6/8 | 14/23 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 67% | 75% | 61% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 1/1 | 2/5 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 100% | 40% | 72% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | |
| Nadal | |||||
| R1 Kudla |
R2 Kozlov |
1/4 Paul |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-0 6-3 | 6-0 7-65 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 15 | 19 | 51 | |
| pts | 61-35 | 52-29 | 82-61 | 195-125 | |
| Total points | 96 | 81 | 143 | 320 | |
| Winners | 26 | 24 | 27 | 77 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 46% | 33% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 8 | 2 | 2 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 27/40 | 31/40 | 39/67 | 97/147 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 78% | 58% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 26/27 | 24/31 | 27/39 | 77/97 | |
| % 1st pts | 96% | 77% | 69% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/13 | 6/9 | 13/28 | 29/50 | |
| % 2nd pts | 77% | 67% | 46% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 5/6 | 6/14 | 14/25 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 83% | 43% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0/1 | 4/7 | 4 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | 57% | 19% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWWWW
LWW Tennis Scores in Acapulco
- Rafael NadalNadal – Tommy PaulPaul (6-0 7-65) – See score progression
- Hans Hach Verdugo/John IsnerHach Verdugo/John Isner – Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos (5-7 6-3 10-5) – See score progression
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Marcos GironGiron (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Lloyd Glasspool/Harri HeliovaaraGlasspool/Harri Heliovaara – Jamie Murray/Bruno SoaresMurray/Bruno Soares (4-6 6-3 10-6) – See score progression
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Peter GojowczykGojowczyk (6-1 6-0) – See score progression
- Feliciano Lopez/Stefanos TsitsipasLopez/Stefanos Tsitsipas – Juan-Sebastian Cabal/Robert FarahCabal/Robert Farah (4-6 6-4 12-10) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Rafael NadalNadal (1-4) – H2H and prediction
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Cameron NorrieNorrie (1-0) – H2H and prediction
