Senate Democrats are facing yet another cycle where the battleground map favors Republicans—this time by a lot. Several Democrats are up for reelection in red states like Ohio and Montana. Democrats also need to hold battleground seats in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. And with Sen. Joe Manchin's impending retirement, West Virginia will almost certainly flip to Republicans, meaning the contest for control of the Senate effectively starts at 50-50 and could very well be decided by which party wins the White House and the vice president’s tie-breaking vote.
Yet, in an interview with Daily Kos, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Tommy Garcia projected optimism about matching up Democrats' battle-tested incumbents against the Republican agenda to, for instance, pass a national abortion ban and strip millions of health care coverage by repealing the Affordable Care Act.
“The strength of our Senate Democratic candidates—who are backed by a broad, unique coalition of voters, the Republican party's flawed recruits, and their toxic agenda on the defining issues of the 2024 election will all lead the GOP's Senate campaigns to defeat," Garcia said in a statement to Daily Kos.
Democratic incumbents in tough races, such as Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana, have carefully cultivated brands that can potentially stand separate and distinct from the national party. The same is true of Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin in Michigan, a national security expert who's running for the seat being vacated by veteran Democrat Debbie Stabenow, who is retiring. In the 2022 midterms, Slotkin bested her Republican opponent Tom Barrett by nearly 4 percentage points in a race that had been billed as a nail-biter.
The likely Republican candidates in several of Democrats' toughest races this year also lost their GOP primaries in 2022. They include Pennsylvania Republican David McCormick and Nevada GOP front-runner Sam Brown. Both McCormick and Brown are a shade less MAGA extremist than the Republicans they lost to last cycle—Mehmet Oz and former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt in Nevada. Even the slightest moderation from Republicans makes the jobs of Democratic incumbent Sens. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania and Jacky Rosen in Nevada tougher this cycle than that of their 2022 midterm counterparts, Sens. John Fetterman and Catherine Cortez Masto, respectively.
But the atmospherics of the 2024 election are still anyone's guess. Will the races be largely nationalized, falling in line with the choices that voters make in the expected rematch between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump? Or will voters, particularly on the Republican side, demonstrate a slightly more independent streak, decoupling their picks at the top of the ticket from those downballot?
The latter phenomenon would benefit Democrats like Brown in Ohio, where Trump beat Biden by 8 points, and Tester in Montana, where Trump buried Biden by 16 points. Those states will be tough sledding, even for two Democratic candidates who have routinely outperformed the national party.
Looking at the totality of the challenges Democrats face, there's simply no way around the fact that they need at least one pickup opportunity as an insurance policy for the seat that might get away—even if Biden and congressional Democrats overall turn in a solid night in November.
On the bright side, Democrats are poised to make a play in Texas and Florida against two of the most reviled Republican senators nationwide: Ted Cruz and Rick Scott.
“In both Texas and Florida, Republicans have unpopular and unlikable incumbents who have turned off voters of every political persuasion," Garcia told Daily Kos. Holding the seats Democrats have is paramount, but Garcia added that Democrats are working to "take advantage of the good offensive opportunities we have in Texas and Florida.”
Both Republicans have proven electoral weaknesses: Cruz held onto his seat in 2018 by just 2 points, and Scott has never won a general election by more than 1.2 points, his margin of victory in his first bid for governor back in 2010. It's been all downhill from there. In 2018, Scott secured his Senate seat by less than half a point, and he remains deeply unpopular, with approval and favorability ratings hovering around 35% among Florida voters.
Cruz's Democratic challenger, Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL linebacker and civil rights attorney, has come on strong. Allred was first elected in 2018, ousting incumbent Republican Pete Sessions from his seat in the 32nd Congressional District, which was nearly 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole.
Upon learning last year of Allred's intent to challenge Cruz, Cook Political Report downgraded the race from "solid" to "lean" Republican. When Allred officially announced his candidacy, he raised $2 million in the first 36 hours of his campaign. In the final quarter of 2023, Allred raised nearly $4.7 million, ending the year with $10.1 million in cash on hand, while Cruz raised about $2.7 million during the same period, with about $6.1 million on hand.
Allred also turned heads in the Democratic primary earlier this month, winning 59% of the vote in a nine-candidate contest, avoiding a runoff and demonstrating widespread appeal to voters across the state.
In head-to-head matchups against Cruz, several polls this year have found Allred polling even or just a couple points behind the two-term GOP incumbent.
In short, the Democratic nominee is a charismatic over-performer, while one of Cruz's most indelible images remains fleeing the state for Cancún, Mexico, in February 2021 as millions of Texans were without power amid a major winter storm.
In Florida, Democrats got the candidate they wanted in former Miami-area Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, the first South American immigrant elected to Congress. Mucarsel-Powell still faces a crowded Democratic primary, but she has party backing and has posted solid fundraising numbers, raising more than $2 million in the final quarter of 2023.
In a recent head-to-head poll, Mucarsel-Powell is already giving Scott a run for his money, trailing him by just 3 points, 41% to 44%, in a Public Policy Polling survey paid for by EMILY's List. The survey also found she had plenty of room to grow, with 63% of Florida voters saying they were unsure about their opinion of her. The same poll showed 53% of Florida voters think it's time to elect someone new to the U.S. Senate.
In November, Scott will face voters for the first time since he penned a proposal two years ago seeking to sunset Social Security and Medicare. One year later, Scott—seeking reelection in a state with one of the country’s largest share of voters over age 65—thought better of the plan, amending it to exclude Social Security and Medicare from the provisions his plan would end.
Last July, Senate Democrats used the anniversary of Medicare becoming law to launch digital ads hitting Republicans on the issue, including individualized spots for Scott and Cruz.
In head-to-head polling conducted by Global Strategy Group for the DSCC last year, Mucarsel-Powell beat Scott handily among politically unaffiliated voters once they were apprised of the candidates' profiles, according to Florida Politics.
Before hearing profiles, Scott leads among those no-party voters by 7 percentage points, but after hearing profiles, pollsters found Mucarsel-Powell leading by 16 points.
Florida Democrats may also have the advantage of campaigning on an abortion-rights ballot measure if the state's high court green-lights it for November. Such a battle over reproductive freedom will surely infuse the race with extra money, resources, and enthusiasm. Mucarsel-Powell has been pressing Scott on his support for the state's six-week abortion ban, calling him one of the "most radical Republicans" on the issue.
"He has also publicly said that he supports a national abortion ban, so make no mistake, abortion is on the ballot in November,” she told the Florida Phoenix in January.
As Democrats assess the 2024 field, it's worth remembering that Senate Republicans went into the 2022 midterms with a decent map and the historical advantage of being the party not in the White House. Yet they still managed to heavily underperform the cycle.
The margin of error for Democrats this cycle is even tighter, but with the help of Trump's MAGA touch in states like Ohio and a pair of uniquely flawed Republican incumbents in Florida and Texas, Democrats still have a shot at holding the upper chamber.
Correction: A previous version of this story incorrectly stated that David McCormick lost the Republican Senate primary in 2022 to state Sen. Doug Mastriano. He lost to Mehmet Oz.
One of the most under-represented groups in elective office is also one of the least discussed: moms, especially mothers of young children. On this week's episode of "The Downballot," we're talking with Liuba Grechen Shirley, the founder of Vote Mama, an organization devoted to electing progressive moms at all levels of the ballot.
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