Donald Trump won in Texas.

Alex's sources are likely right, and it's going to be a long wait. Now that California is in Biden's column, he's at 209 electoral votes, to Trump's 119. Let's assume Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas are going to Trump. Give him Hawaii, Biden needs to find 58 electoral votes somewhere — some combination of Minnesota (10), Arizona (11), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), Maine (3), ME-02 (1), NE-02 (1), Georgia (16). He can lose Georgia, but then he needs to win EVERYTHING ELSE if he also lost Pennsylvania.

In Texas, Austin's Travis County is blowing out the doors for Biden. He's going to have a much bigger margin out of that county than Clinton.

In Texas' Tarrant County (Fort Worth), the third-most populous county in the state, Trump leads Biden by just two-tenths of a percentage point with 80% in. Tarrant has voted Republican in all but one election since 1952; George W. Bush won the county by 25 points in 2004 and Mitt Romney won it by 16 in 2012.

Boy, Trump is looking weak in some of those Texas suburban counties

Christopher Or Ohio. Democrats had been lobbying Biden to make an investment there in part because returns were expected early.

Gonna be wild if Texas is closer than Florida.

Laura Charlie Sabrina The question for me is does it point to a lack of investment on the part of the Biden campaign directly to Latinos? But the anti-immigration policies (and Trump’s warnings of socialism) and general rhetoric around immigrants obviously play very different in Arizona, Nevada and Texas than they do in Florida.

Observation of Miami-Dade and Biden’s underperformance there compared with Clinton is it’s difficult at the moment to extrapolate what this means for Latino voters in states like Nevada, Arizona and Texas. Could be a warning sign, but also could be unique to Trump’s efforts in Fla, with Cuban, Venezuelan and Puerto Rican voters. 

GOP strategist just made this point to me: If Florida goes red in 2020, while Georgia, NC, Texas are seen as more/just as competitive for Dems, it could totally change Florida's role in presidential politics. It's big, expensive and complicated, so what if Dems stop challenging it and focus on other SEC-type states?

Yes to Elena's point, I think map makers are going to have their work cut out for them during 2021 redistricting in places like Texas or Orange County in California if Biden wins tonight. It will be hard to determine how these suburban voters perform in a post-Trump era

Charlie Many Democrats wanted Julian Castro to run for Senate or Governor in 2018 and when he didn't it angered a lot of them. It would seem to be his best path to stay in politics as I'm skeptical he'll get a cabinet post or is pursuing one.

Eugene Elena I think some are to stay and clearly some could rebound. The suburban shift started in 2018 and as you and I both covered Elena a lot of that shift was due to women who were never politically active before. My convos with a lot of them makes me think a number of them stay in Democratic column. But of course the share will matter in a state like Texas and how flippable it truly is.

But what about Julian Castro?

Hey guys, as we think about Texas and the nine Legislative seats that are key to giving Democrats a voice in redistricting, as Ally mentioned, the shift could really pave the way for a Beto comeback. He’s put huge effort into those seats, and the governor’s race will be one a lot of Democrats want to see him shoot for.

Eugene Natasha The question of whether Texas would STAY competitive (should it get flipped in the Trump era) is fascinating. It goes to the question of whether the suburban shift is a Trump era-creation or if it's here to stay. Are Dems just renting these voters for 2020?

If Texas flips tonight, Trumpism is dead. I don't think Texas flips. And Trumpism will live on even if Trump loses the election. I wouldn't be surprised if he filed for reelection the day that Biden is inaugurated. (And I'm not predicting Trump loses tonight)

Charlie Elena -- I talked to a couple of Democratic operatives who said even if Texas flips tonight, they think it would be a one-off and not something sustainable. Basically they think Trump is such a draw to vote against and that won't be the case every time.

It's been interesting to watch the Biden campaign with regard to Texas. They dropped it as a possible expansion state early on, noting it was a pipe dream. For the sake of down ballot races, there was some pressure from Democrats within the state for Biden to invest some time there even if he couldn't turn it blue.

The Texas Senate race is one to keep an eye on. Beto O'Rourke's near miss in 2018 was a pretty good sign of how the state was changing, but Cornyn has proved less vulnerable than some of the other GOP incumbents this year... although Democrats feel like that race broke pretty late in MJ Hegar's favor. If Cornyn goes down tonight, that means Dems are probably going to have a really, really strong night

If Texas falls for the GOP, Charlie, the entire map of how Ds or Rs achieve 270 gets ... totally scrambled.

Texas is the GOP’s lone reliable mega-state and the cornerstone of the Republican Party's Electoral College strategy. What happens if Texas falls?

One stat to keep in mind: Texas just passed California in recording the highest number of positive Covid-19 tests in the country over the course of the pandemic.

A competitive presidential race, tons of hot House races, a competitive Senate race, state leg races...what is going on there?

How have we gone so long without talking about Texas?

Happy Election Day! No surprise, I'm watching the battle for Senate control. Republicans go into the night with a 53-47 majority. There are a huge number of potentially competitive races. The likeliest flip for Republicans is Alabama. The likeliest flips for Democrats are Colorado and Arizona, followed by tight races in Maine, North Carolina and Iowa. If Democrats can flip two of those three, they'll likely win back the majority six years after losing it. There are also races in Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, Alaska and Texas that could flip if Democrats are having a REALLY good night. And if Republicans are having a really strong night, Michigan is their next best opportunity. The possibilities are a little dizzying.

But one thing to keep a close eye on: Georgia. Two races in that state, and one is almost certain to head to a January 5 runoff, while the other is going to be extremely close and could potentially also go to a runoff. So the majority could be won tonight. Or... it could be won in January.