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  • CSP-63: HREP-ADMU Evidence-Based Research Project in Support of the President's 8-Point Agenda - A Compendium of Policy Briefs
    The Philippine House of Representatives and the Ateneo de Manila University launched its research collaboration project, dubbed “Evidence-Based Research Project.” Envisioned tosupport the current administration’s 8-point agenda and the PhilippineDevelopment Plan 2023-2028 towards achieving the Filipino aspirationsof maginhawa, matatag, at panatag na buhay, or the Ambisyon Natin2040, this momentous collaboration has produced thirteen (13) technicalpapers and corresponding policy briefs in eleven research areas thataim to aid in protecting the purchasing power of families; reducingvulnerability and mitigating the effects of the pandemic; ensuring soundmacroeconomic fundamentals; creating more quality and green jobs;facilitating government rightsizing; and establishing peace and order.Apart from technical papers, the project conducted seven roundtablediscussions series on pressing national issues, allowing academicresearchers to actively engage and participate in policy discussionsand provide inputs that are not only backed by theory, but also basedon data.
  • FF2024-23: Traffic Congestion in Metro Manila
    By metro areas. Metro Manila has the worst traffic congestion among metro areas in the world according to the 2023 TomTom Traffic Index. Out of 387 cities across 55 countries, Metro Manila registered the longest average travel time to traverse a ten (10)- kilometer route (e.g., Cubao to Makati) at 25 minutes and 30 seconds. This is higher compared to the 24 minutes and 40 seconds average travel time in 2022. The other metro areas which topped in traffic congestion are Lima (Peru), Bengaluru (India), Sapporo (Japan), and Bogota (Colombia).
  • FF2024-22: 2023 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS
    Net inflows of foreign direct investments (FDI)Net inflows of foreign direct investments (FDI)exhibited a 6.6% year-on-year (YoY) decrease as itamounted to US$8.9 billion in 2023, the secondconsecutive year a decline was registered (Figure 1).Despite the decrease, net FDI inflows still exceededthe government’s 2023 target of US$8.0 billion.
  • CN2024-02: Addressing Procurement Issues in Official Development Assistance (ODA) Projects*
    Official Development Assistance (ODA) plays a vital role in driving the socioeconomic progress of developing countries such as the Philippines. It provides additional funding for a wide range of projects, including infrastructure, education, healthcare, and environmental sustainability. However, challenges remain, as pointed out by the National Economic and Development Authority in its annual ODA Portfolio Review. One significant issue highlighted is the delays experienced in ODA projects, often due to procurement-related issues. This CPBRD note explores these challenges, focusing on recent experiences with the implementation of selected ODA projects and the hurdles encountered in the procurement process.
  • FF2024-21: Philippine Country Profile in the Digital 2024 Report
    DataReportal, in partnership with Meltwater and We Are Social, published the Digital 2024: Global Overview Report early this year. The report summarizes the latest headlines for digital adoption and use featuring 53 countries. Worldwide internet adoption reached 66.2% in January 2024, a 0.9% year-on-year increase compared to the previous period. Global percentage of internet users, aged 16 to 64, who access the web through smartphone or feature phone is at 96.5%; while those who use computer devices e.g., laptop, desktop or tablet, is only at 61.8%.
  • DP2024-02: Impact of Regulatory Barriers on Inward FDI in the ASEAN-5: An Augmented Gravity Model Approach (Updated Version of DP2023-01)
    As the world recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, attracting foreign direct investments or FDI has emerged as an important source for sustaining economic recovery in many developing countries. However, regulatory restrictions pose a challenge, limiting countries’ capacity to attract and benefit from FDI. This paper principally examines the impact of foreign restrictions on inward FDI in the ASEAN-5, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Data on FDI are based on the top 20 FDI source countries. Using an augmented gravity model for the period 2010 to 2020, this paper shows that reforms aimed at liberalizing FDI equity restrictions as measured by the index could potentially increase inward FDI. Moreover, host countries with greater geographical distance, higher corporate tax rates and inflation rates are likely to deter FDI due to increased costs for foreign investors. Larger market sizes, stronger perception that government corruption is controlled and greater quality of human capital also play significant roles in attracting FDI. By addressing regulatory barriers, particularly foreign equity restrictions and considering other factors deterring FDI, ASEAN-5 countries have the potential to substantially increase their level of inward FDI, unlock associated benefits, and accelerate their post-pandemic recovery.
  • PB2024-02: Raising the Minimum Wage: How Good Intentions Can Lead to Poor Outcomes
    Proposals to enact a law providing for an across-the-board increase in the minimum wage of employees in the private sector and across all regions are currently being deliberated in both houses of Congress. Proponents contend that these measures will improve the living conditions of ordinary Filipinos and ensure the fair distribution of profits. This policy brief presents a review of relevant literature concerning the expected impacts of minimum wage legislation on employment, inflation, and income. It argues that an arbitrary governmentmandated across-the-board wage hike will likely lead to higher unemployment, impair skills development among low-skilled workers, and potentially exacerbate inflationary pressures. All these, in turn, are expected to dampen macroeconomic growth prospects in both the short- and long-term. Official labor data estimates reveal that a P150-peso wage hike will place 11.9 million minimum wage earners at risk of unemployment. Additionally, the initial cost of adjusting wages upwards for all minimum wage earners is estimated to increase prices by around 4%. Policymakers are thus advised to consider the likely adverse effects of distortionary policies such as arbitrary wage hikes, particularly to those who are among the most socioeconomically disadvantaged. Careful consideration of these consequences is crucial in formulating effective and equitable economic policies.
  • DP2024-01: Do Minimum Wages Work? A Scoping Study of Experiences with a Focus on ASEAN
    The minimum wage (MW) policy has long been a contentious social policy tool. Despite this, most countries have some form of MW policy. In ASEAN, most of the definitions and purposes of the policy are a balance of protecting the workers’ welfare (i.e., protection of the low-skilled and low-earners from unduly low pay) and ensuring that the country’s economic goals and targets are being achieved. Meanwhile, the coverage and mechanisms vary. While there is no consensus on the “right” mechanism to make the MW policy work, best practices and learnings from international experience can still provide valuable insights on how to improve the effectiveness of the policy. Enhancements in terms of clarifying the objectives of the MW policy, improving transparency in the adjustments process, conducting regular reviews and assessments to ensure the relevance of the MW, strengthening collective bargaining mechanisms, and deepening the capacity of enforcers, among others, are some of the ways through which the policy can be modified. As the body of literature examining the effects of the policy abounds, the contention on the usefulness of the MW policy has largely become an empirical question rather than a theoretical one. This stresses the importance of grounding policy modifications – whether it be in terms of the actual level, coverage, purpose, or adjustment mechanism – to an up-to-date, evidence-based approach.
  • FF2024-15: ASEAN Performance in the 2023 Government Artificial Intelligence Readiness Report
    The Government Artificial Intelligence (AI) Readiness Report is an annual publication of Oxford Insights that aims to analyze the major trends and initiatives affecting each region’s AI readiness and help governments prepare for the adoption of AI in their services by having the capacities, frameworks, skills, resources, and infrastructure in place to make good decisions about AI use. It essentially aims to gauge how ready a given government is to implement AI in the delivery of public services to its citizens.
  • PB2024-01: An Examination of the Inability of the Current Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages to Elicit Desirable Health Outcomes
    In response to the growing concerns about health-related issues associated with sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption, policymakers have turned to imposing taxes on such beverages. These taxes aim to address both health-related internalities and externalities associated with SSB consumption. This policy brief assesses the current volumetric SSB tax regime as introduced under the TRAIN Law beginning 2018. It raises concerns about the current tax regime’s ability to curb SSB consumption and promote desirable health outcomes due to its failure to differentiate across products with significantly different health risks based on sugar content. The paper therefore argues that a sugar content tax regime is more effective in giving consumers price signals that clearly distinguishes between high-sugar, high-risk SSBs and low-sugar, low-risk SSBs. Moving towards a sugar content-based taxation approach, supported by appropriate legislation on consumer education, holds the potential to optimize health outcomes while minimizing unintended consequences.
  • CN2024-01: Understanding the Phillips Curve and Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy
    This CPBRD Note examines the prevailing dynamics between inflation and unemployment in the Philippines from 2011 to 2023, and provides the context on how it conforms to the contours set by the Phillips curve and natural rate of unemployment. This Note further emphasizes the role of fiscal policy through the lens of the Phillips curve in promoting fiscal discipline. In the context of fiscal interventions, the Phillips curve may serve as a guide to use the contractionary fiscal policy during economic booms to prevent overheating and excessive inflation, even if unemployment is low. In the context of monetary policy, the government needs to pursue sustainable levels of inflation and be cautious not to pursue overly expansionary fiscal policy. To avoid excessive spending and debt build-up, it is also important to consider having a rule-based framework or fiscal responsibility framework.
  • DP2023-04: Estimating the Cost of Establishing an Evacuation Center in Every City and Municipality
    The discussion paper aims to provide an estimate on the cost of implementating HB 7354 which proposes to establish an evacuation center in every city and municipality. It focuses on measuring the cost to establish an evacuation center in localities with no such center that fit the facility standard based on the DILG database. The paper made use of a sample costing of a two-story standard evacuation center from DPWH with costs updated to current prices, and later used to calculate the nationwide implementation of the proposed measure after adjustments in regional prices. Also discussed in the paper are financing options involving partnerships with the private sector and local governments to bridge the funding gap for the establishment and eventual maintenance of the facilities.

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