Last September, the Reds found themselves with a starting pitching problem. Some arms were on the injured list—because that’s what happens to big league pitchers these days—and management had not acquired enough rotation depth to sustain the club. As a result, with the Reds fighting desperately for a playoff spot, manager David Bell was forced to send an eclectic mixture of relief pitchers and kids who weren’t ready for prime time to the mound in a pennant race: Relievers Derek Law, Tejay Antone, and Fernando Cruz all started games, while Lyon Richardson, Carson Spiers, and Connor Phillips, all currently pitching for Triple-A Louisville, also got their opportunity.
Predictably, last year’s Redlegs fell just short in the wild card race. To be fair, Phillips is a real prospect who just wasn’t ready—same, to a lesser extent, for Richardson. But that’s the point, and to his credit, Reds President of Baseball Operations Nick Krall tried to make amends over the winter. Krall didn’t sign any superstars for the rotation, but he did acquire depth in the form of Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez.
That depth will be tested now, as Montas was forced to the IL with a right forearm contusion sustained on Sunday, when the third batter of the game hit a ball right back at him. He’ll miss three starts, joining Brandon Williamson, who started 23 games last year, on the sidelines. But the Redlegs appear to be well-positioned to weather this storm and, in fact, it’s entirely possible that we look up at the end of the season and find that this starting staff was the best in the Central Division.
Nick Lodolo’s recent return is the big reason I’m optimistic. The 26-year-old lefty has dazzled in his two starts, going 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA, 16 strikeouts, and just one walk in 12 innings pitched. What we’ve seen over his career is that Lodolo has pretty much always been effective when he’s healthy. Staying off the injured list has been the challenge. But when healthy, he works quickly, throws strikes, and changes speeds effectively. The kid is good.
Fellow lefty Andrew Abbott has also picked up where he left off last season (before he tired down the stretch anyway), with a 2.70 ERA over his four starts. He’s been more of a bulldog on the mound than Lodolo, but he’s as fun to watch as any Reds pitcher since, I dunno, Tom Browning. Now 25, he appears ready to improve on his often-spectacular rookie campaign.
Graham Ashcraft, like Lodolo, is 26 and embarking on his third season in a Cincinnati uniform. Though he is 3-1, he’s been the least effective Reds starter to this point with an ERA of 5.24. Ashcraft has had a couple of good outings and a couple of rough ones, but he’s striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings. I’m optimistic that he can be, at the very least, a reliable fourth starter—though, when Montas returns, Ashcraft will be No. 5 in the rotation.
The elephant in the room, of course, is Hunter Greene, who obviously has every tool in his arsenal to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s been roughly league-average this year, with an 0-2 record to go along with a 4.55 ERA. The bugaboo, as always, is Greene’s seeming inability to pitch more efficiently. He leads the club with 36 strikeouts; he also leads the club with 11 walks issued. He’s failed to get out of the fifth inning in two of his starts, including last week against Seattle, when he struck out eight and surrendered just one run but had already thrown 98 pitches through four innings and was forced to depart.
His most recent start, on Monday against the Phillies, seemed like a step in the right direction, as he finished seven innings and threw only 99 pitches. On the other hand, he surrendered four runs. You win some, you lose some. (The Reds lost.)
Seems like we’ve been waiting forever for Greene to become this team’s ace, right? When is this kid going to get it? Well, to answer that, I would remind you that Hunter, at age 24, is still the youngest starter on this staff, younger even than Abbott and Lodolo. And though I’m not predicting a similar career trajectory, remember that Johnny Cueto never had an above-average season until he was 24. As with Elly De La Cruz, I urge you to be patient with Greene.
In Montas’ absence, Nick Martinez will get another shot at starting. Signed in the off-season as a swing guy, he made two ineffective starts but has a 1.29 ERA out of the pen since Lodolo returned, holding opposing hitters to a .192 average. Martinez was signed to make starts when there are injuries—a luxury last year’s team didn’t have, and it cost them down the stretch.
The Reds got off to their best 21-game start since 2013, and if they intend to keep pace, the pitching is going to have to lead the charge. Greene, Ashcraft, and Montas have been uneven so far this season, but even so, there’s a good argument to be made that Reds starters have been the best in the NL Central.
The Reds have embarked on a brutal 38-game stretch that includes nine games against last year’s World Series teams (Arizona and Texas) plus 11 games against the Dodgers and Phillies. If the Reds can survive that stretch, even by going .500, they’ll be in a great position to make a second straight summer surge. And we will have learned a lot more about the development of Cincinnati’s young hurlers over those six weeks.
Chad Dotson helms Reds coverage at Cincinnati Magazine and hosts a long-running Reds podcast, The Riverfront. His newsletter about Cincinnati sports can be found at chaddotson.com. He’s @dotsonc on Twitter.
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