Kerb Hohl wrote:

wco81 wrote:

coldfish wrote:
Transmissibility calculations are complicated to the point where they are almost guesses. When the virus first showed up in the US, there were areas that had r0 numbers around 8. A ton of things affect that, including human behaviors, immunity, etc.

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You can see there that the Indian variant is spreading much more slowly in the US than it did in the UK, perhaps due to our reliance on mrna vaccines and getting double vaccinated. Perhaps I bashed Fauci too quickly on that one.

Regardless, when you take the percentage times case numbers for the indian variant in the US, it is going up but just barely. The r0 number is only slightly over 1. Remember that the percentages are of total cases, which is actually going down.

If this pattern holds, we will start to see cases rise within the next month, but only marginally like what happened with b117, before they start to decline again. This is almost exactly what b117 looked like in February or so.

The fear is a surge in the fall and winter. Maybe not as big as last fall/winter but in low vaccination areas.

Not even close to as big as last fall/winter given vaccinations and prior infection immunity. Even the lower vaccination rate areas still are going to be reasonably high, especially by then.

coldfish wrote:

Kerb Hohl wrote:

wco81 wrote:The fear is a surge in the fall and winter. Maybe not as big as last fall/winter but in low vaccination areas.

Not even close to as big as last fall/winter given vaccinations and prior infection immunity. Even the lower vaccination rate areas still are going to be reasonably high, especially by then.

The big variable is the duration of the immunity. No one has an answer on that and the guesses aren't even particularly educated at this point, given that we have nothing comparable to go by.

If immunity from vaccination and infection fades after 6 months, next year could be just as bad as last year but there is a mountain of evidence at this point that immunity lasts longer than that.

Next issue is a new variant. If you get a mutation that allows the virus to jump past immunity, its functionally the same thing. That said, the virus seems to be converging into a few mutations. Its not like all the variants have random different mutations and the virus is diverging. All of the mutations seem to be common and what makes the Indian variant the most dangerous is that it has most of the adaptions. We know that the pfizer and moderna protect against the Indian variant so it seems to be a low probability item.

coldfish wrote:

Kerb Hohl wrote:

wco81 wrote:
The fear is a surge in the fall and winter. Maybe not as big as last fall/winter but in low vaccination areas.

Not even close to as big as last fall/winter given vaccinations and prior infection immunity. Even the lower vaccination rate areas still are going to be reasonably high, especially by then.

The big variable is the duration of the immunity. No one has an answer on that and the guesses aren't even particularly educated at this point, given that we have nothing comparable to go by.

If immunity from vaccination and infection fades after 6 months, next year could be just as bad as last year but there is a mountain of evidence at this point that immunity lasts longer than that.

Next issue is a new variant. If you get a mutation that allows the virus to jump past immunity, its functionally the same thing. That said, the virus seems to be converging into a few mutations. Its not like all the variants have random different mutations and the virus is diverging. All of the mutations seem to be common and what makes the Indian variant the most dangerous is that it has most of the adaptions. We know that the pfizer and moderna protect against the Indian variant so it seems to be a low probability item.

nymets1 wrote:

wco81 wrote:

nymets1 wrote:
I'm surprised Florida is showing up on Worldometers as I thought Florida is supposed to be only reporting on Friday's.

Think about Florida's sketchy reporting when you vote next year.

What do you think I should be voting on? I'm not upset or mad, it's just a virus. Surprised that Florida reported a case number today, when it's supposed to be only Friday's, not mad or upset over it.

I don't vote every year, but the 1 thing that get's my attention the most that I would vote for is raising the minimum wage. I could go to vote just for that only.

coldfish wrote:Personally, I'm just happy that we let in all of these variants. My airline stock portfolio is worth a few thousand lives.

/s

wco81 wrote:

coldfish wrote:Personally, I'm just happy that we let in all of these variants. My airline stock portfolio is worth a few thousand lives.

/s

Lot of these mutations are likely to develop on their own in several countries where there's still a lot of spread.

wco81 wrote:

nymets1 wrote:

wco81 wrote:
Think about Florida's sketchy reporting when you vote next year.

What do you think I should be voting on? I'm not upset or mad, it's just a virus. Surprised that Florida reported a case number today, when it's supposed to be only Friday's, not mad or upset over it.

I don't vote every year, but the 1 thing that get's my attention the most that I would vote for is raising the minimum wage. I could go to vote just for that only.

FL did vote for raising the minimum wage. But the FL legislature is blocking it right?

The new data mark the first time that a medicine that works by fighting the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been shown to reduce mortality. Other treatments, such as the steroid dexamethasone, have been shown to save lives by tamping down the immune system’s overactive response to the virus.

“Imagine a patient goes into hospital, they’re diagnosed as having Covid and then one does a test to say, well, in response to the Covid, have they got antibodies or not?” Martin Landray, a University of Oxford professor and one of the lead investigators of the trial, explained on a call with reporters. “If they have, there’s no need to give them more. If they haven’t got antibodies of their own, then giving them this combination of two antibodies by an intravenous infusion then actually reduces their chances of dying by a fifth.”

nymets1 wrote:Last night's numbers from worldometers

USA- 34,352,141 +12,536

Cali- 3,804,781 +1,082
Texas- 2,980,622 +1,486
Florida- 2,351,276 +991

I'm surprised Florida is showing up on Worldometers as I thought Florida is supposed to be only reporting on Friday's.

Today's numbers from worldometers

USA- 34,366,073 +13,734

Cali- 3,805,682 +811
Texas- 2,981,747 +1,125
Florida- 2,352,995 +1,719
Missouri- 607,722 +857

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Bank of America Says All Vaccinated Staff to Return to Office in September

Bank of America Corp. expects all of its vaccinated employees to return to the office after Labor Day in early September, and will then focus on developing plans for returning unvaccinated workers to its sites.
More than 70,000 of the firm’s employees have voluntarily disclosed their vaccine status to the bank, Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said in a Bloomberg Television interview Thursday. The firm, which has more than 210,000 employees globally, has already invited those who have received their shots to begin returning.

If people wanted to avoid catching the virus, they had to rely on themselves and their habits. Many people became more vigilant about protecting themselves — washing hands, social distancing, staying away from others while sick, and the like. We’ve known for years that hand washing and wearing masks limit the spread of airborne diseases, such as the flu, but it wasn’t until this crisis that many people actually changed their behaviors to do so. It’s no coincidence that in the year the world adopted masks, flu transmission was interrupted with a 100-fold decline in cases.

Overnight, the novel virus commanded headlines. Many people read about Covid-19 every day, or heard about it on the news, and it quickly became the central focus of our lives. What were the latest case numbers? The latest signs and symptoms to look out for? Progress on the development of new treatments and vaccines?

For the first time, basic language from biostatistics, such as specificity, sensitivity, and pre-test probabilities, found its way into normal conversation. With concerns about false positives or negatives, the world began to understand that not every medical test is perfect.

Dry_Fish wrote:Kind of curious how return to work will be. I am still remote but am expected to back in the office a few days a week later in the year.


I think what BofA is doing is terrible.....they are incentivizing not to get a vaccine.

Bank of America Says All Vaccinated Staff to Return to Office in September

Bank of America Corp. expects all of its vaccinated employees to return to the office after Labor Day in early September, and will then focus on developing plans for returning unvaccinated workers to its sites.
More than 70,000 of the firm’s employees have voluntarily disclosed their vaccine status to the bank, Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said in a Bloomberg Television interview Thursday. The firm, which has more than 210,000 employees globally, has already invited those who have received their shots to begin returning.

https://archive.fo/3e0Ap#selection-3151.0-3161.325

UGA Hayes wrote:Thursday data in: +2.05M doses reported administered over total yesterday! Last Thursday was 934K. Today includes 814K newly vaccinated of any age. 65% of adults now with one dose. Congrats to Illinois and Guam which just hit 70% of adults with at least one dose!

WTF?????

coldfish wrote:

UGA Hayes wrote:Thursday data in: +2.05M doses reported administered over total yesterday! Last Thursday was 934K. Today includes 814K newly vaccinated of any age. 65% of adults now with one dose. Congrats to Illinois and Guam which just hit 70% of adults with at least one dose!

WTF?????

I still think there were far more people out there who were simply afraid of the vaccine than outright covid deniers. As people become more comfortable with the vaccine, the "vaccine hesitant" are starting to convert.

Nutty Nats Fan wrote:

Dry_Fish wrote:Kind of curious how return to work will be. I am still remote but am expected to back in the office a few days a week later in the year.


I think what BofA is doing is terrible.....they are incentivizing not to get a vaccine.

Bank of America Says All Vaccinated Staff to Return to Office in September

Bank of America Corp. expects all of its vaccinated employees to return to the office after Labor Day in early September, and will then focus on developing plans for returning unvaccinated workers to its sites.
More than 70,000 of the firm’s employees have voluntarily disclosed their vaccine status to the bank, Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said in a Bloomberg Television interview Thursday. The firm, which has more than 210,000 employees globally, has already invited those who have received their shots to begin returning.

https://archive.fo/3e0Ap#selection-3151.0-3161.325

Yeah... get vaccinated, give up the advantages of working remotely.

I'm hoping one of the longer lasting effects of Covid is businesses realizing how outdated forcing workers to sit at a desk in an office for 8 hours is.