2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

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2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

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  Edward Markey, official portrait, 114th Congress (1).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Ed Markey Kevin O'Connor
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,357,809 1,177,765
Percentage 66.2% 33.1%

2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts results map by municipality.svg

U.S. senator before election

Ed Markey
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Ed Markey
Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. On September 1, incumbent Senator Ed Markey defeated U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III in a competitive primary for the Democratic nomination, and Kevin O'Connor defeated Shiva Ayyadurai for the Republican nomination. Markey went on to win the general election with 66.2% of the vote, and was thus re-elected to a second full term in a landslide.

Democratic primary[edit]

The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020.[1] Incumbent Senator Ed Markey was challenged by U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III, a member of the Kennedy family. Kennedy and Markey had similar political positions, both being considered reliably liberal Democrats, though Markey was considered more left-wing on the DW-Nominate scale.[2] An elected senator had not been defeated in a primary since Richard Lugar in 2012, and an elected Democrat had not been defeated since Joe Lieberman in 2006.[3]

In August 2019, it was reported that Kennedy was considering a primary challenge to Markey.[4] He announced that he would be launching a campaign on September 18.[5] According to Vox, one of the main reasons for Kennedy's decision to challenge Markey, rather than waiting for a Senate seat to open up, was that Markey was perceived to be an easier opponent than the raft of candidates that would run without an incumbent.[6] Polling of the potential match-up showed Markey trailing Kennedy by 14 points, leading to speculation that he would retire rather than face a humiliating primary defeat, but he resolved to run for re-election.[7]

Kennedy's campaign pitch largely focused around a message that he would "show up" for disadvantaged residents of Massachusetts, something he claimed Markey had not been doing.[8] This strategy was heavily inspired by Ayanna Pressley's succesful campaign for the U.S. House the previous cycle, and was aimed at casting Kennedy as an insurgent outsider running against the establishment.[8]

Support from within the Democratic Party was divided. Markey received support from the DSCC, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, and DSCC chair Catherine Cortez Masto. He was also endorsed by key figures in the party's progressive wing, such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, fellow Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and the youth-led Sunrise Movement.[9] Kennedy received various endorsements from the House leadership, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (which was noteworthy because speakers rarely endorse candidates in competitive primaries, especially challengers to incumbents),[10][11] House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer,[12] House Democratic Caucus chair Hakeem Jeffries,[13] House Intelligence Committee chair Adam Schiff,[14] and House Democratic Senior Chief Deputy Whip John Lewis.[15]

As the campaign progressed, Markey began to explicitly criticise the Kennedy family, deeming them as emblematic of privilege, and frequently contrasting the Kennedy Compound with his own upbringing in Malden.[16] Kennedy attacked Markey for these actions, accusing him of "weaponizing" the history of the Kennedy family.[17] As the race entered its final days the contest began to assume an ideological meaning, with New York Magazines' Gabriel Debendetti writing that the contest was viewed as a "fight for the soul of the national Democratic party", with both candidates claiming that a victory for them would be an affirmation of the strength of the left-wing of the Democrats.[18]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Joe Kennedy III
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide politicians
State legislators
Local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Newspapers
Ed Markey
Executive officials
  • Al Gore, 45th Vice President of the United States (1993–2001), U.S. Senator from Tennessee (1985–1993)[70]
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide politicians
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling[edit]

Joe Kennedy III vs. Ed Markey
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Date updated Joe
Kennedy III
Ed
Markey
Undecided[a] Margin
RealClearPolitics July 31 – August 27, 2020 August 27, 2020 40.8% 52.0% 7.2% Markey +11.2
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Ed
Markey
Maura
Healey
Shannon
Liss-Riordan
Joe
Kennedy III
Seth
Moulton
Steve
Pemberton
Allen
Waters
Other Undecided
Emerson College/WHDH August 25–27, 2020 453 (LV) ± 4.6% 56% 44%
Data for Progress August 24–25, 2020 731 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43% 7%
Suffolk University August 23–25, 2020 500 (LV) 51% 41% 0%[c] 8%
UMass Lowell August 13–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 4.1% 52% 40% 2%[d] 6%
SurveyUSA/Priorities for Progress August 12–16, 2020 558 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 42% 15%
UMassAmherst/WCVB July 31 – August 7, 2020 362 (LV) ± 7.0% 51% 36% 1% 12%
JMC Analytics and Polling July 29–30, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 41% 16%
Emerson College May 5–6, 2020 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 58%
University of Massachusetts Lowell April 27 – May 1, 2020 531 (LV) ± 7.8% 42% 44% 4%[e] 10%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ[1][2] February 26–28, 2020 465 (LV) ± 4.4% 36% 42% 1%[f] 21%
UMass Amherst/WCVB[3] February 18–24, 2020 400 (LV) ± 5.9% 43% 40% 4% 13%
UMass Lowell/YouGov February 12–19, 2020 450 (LV) ± 6.1% 34% 35% 23%
Jan 17, 2020 Liss-Riordan withdraws from the race
Dec 16, 2019 Waters withdraws from the race
Oct 14, 2019 Pemberton withdraws from the race
Sep 21, 2019 Kennedy announces his candidacy
Suffolk University/Boston Globe September 3–5, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 28% 42% 29%
26% <1% 35% 1% 0% 36%
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 808 (RV) ± 3.5% 25% 5% 42% 7%
Jul 23, 2019 Pemberton announces his candidacy
Suffolk University June 5–9, 2019 370 (LV) ± 5.1% 44% 5% 5% 45%
May 20, 2019 Liss-Riordan announces her candidacy[148]
May 19, 2019 Healey announces that she will not run
Apr 1, 2019 Waters announces his candidacy[149]
Dec 14, 2018 Moulton announces that he will not run[150]
YouGov/UMass Amherst November 7–14, 2018 635 (RV) 26% 27% 35%
636 (RV) 29% 25% 38%
Oct 5, 2018 Markey announces his candidacy
Suffolk University September 13–17, 2018 433 (LV) 24% 18% 45%

Debates[edit]

Results[edit]

Unofficial results by municipality, via WBUR as of September 2

Markey defeated his challenger, Joe Kennedy III. Markey won by running up big margins in Boston and its suburbs, and did well in Western Massachusetts, especially in college towns. Kennedy did well in the Cape Cod region, and won many Southern municipalities, especially his native 4th district.[151] Markey's margin of victory of 10.8% was attributed to his unexpected strength among progressives and younger voters.[152][19] Kennedy's loss marked the first time a member of the Kennedy family had lost an election in Massachusetts.[153][154]

Democratic primary results[155]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ed Markey (incumbent) 782,694 55.35%
Democratic Joe Kennedy III 629,359 44.51%
Democratic Write-ins 1,935 0.14%
Total votes 1,413,988 100.00%

Republican primary[edit]

The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020.[1]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

Unofficial results by municipality, via The New York Times as of September 5
Republican primary results[155]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin O'Connor 158,590 59.71%
Republican Shiva Ayyadurai 104,782 39.45%
Republican Write-ins 2,245 0.84%
Total votes 265,617 100.00%

Other candidates[edit]

Libertarian Party[edit]

Failed to qualify[edit]

Results[edit]

Libertarian primary results[155]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Other Write-ins 3,390 99.21%
Libertarian Vermin Supreme (write-in) 27 0.79%
Total votes 3,417 100.00%

Green Party[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

  • Andre "Maha Visnu" Gray, Co-Chair of the Massachusetts Green-Rainbow Party, teacher, and businessman[157][165]

Independents[edit]

Write-in candidate[edit]

  • Shiva Ayyadurai (switched to this candidacy after losing Republican primary)[160]

Withdrawn[edit]

General election[edit]

The general election took place on November 3, 2020.[1]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[168] Safe D October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[169] Safe D October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[170] Safe D November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[171] Safe D October 30, 2020
Politico[172] Safe D November 2, 2020
RCP[173] Safe D October 23, 2020
DDHQ[174] Safe D November 3, 2020
538[175] Safe D November 2, 2020
Economist[176] Safe D November 2, 2020

Endorsements[edit]

Ed Markey (D)
Vice Presidents
  • Al Gore, 45th Vice President of the United States (1993–2001), U.S. Senator from Tennessee (1985–1993)[70]
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
  • Bill Keating, U.S. Representative (MA-09) (2013–present) (2011–2013 in 10th district)[73]
  • Joe Kennedy III, U.S. Representative (MA-04) (2013–2021)[177]
  • Ro Khanna, U.S. Representative (CA-17) (2017–present)[74]
  • Richard Neal, U.S. Representative (MA-01) (2013–present) (1989–2013 in 2nd district)[73]
  • Stephen F. Lynch, U.S. Representative (MA-08) (2013–present) (2001–2013 in 9th district)[73]
  • Carolyn Maloney, U.S. Representative (NY-12) (2013–present) (1993–2013 in 14th district) and Chair of the House Oversight Committee (2019–present)[75]
  • Jim McGovern, U.S. Representative (MA-02) (2013–present) (1997–2013 in 3rd district) and Chair of the House Rules Committee (2019–present)[73]
  • Jerry Nadler, U.S. Representative (NY-10) (2013–present) (1992–1993 in 17th district) (1993–2013 in 8th district) and Chair of the House Judiciary Committee (2019–present)[75]
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. Representative (NY-14) (2019–present)[76]
  • Lori Trahan, U.S. Representative (MA-03) (2019–present)[73]
Statewide politicians
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Kevin O’Connor (R)
Statewide politicians

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Ed
Markey (D)
Kevin
O'Connor (R)
Other Undecided
MassInc October 23–30, 2020 929 (LV) 60% 29% 6%[g] 5%
YouGov/UMass Amherst October 14–21, 2020 713 (LV) 65% 26% 2%[h] 7%
Remington Research (R)[A] September 16–17, 2020 907 (LV) ± 3.3% 50% 40% 10%
Hypothetical polling
with Charlie Baker
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Ed
Markey (D)
Charlie
Baker (R)
Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 45%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Shannon
Liss-Riordan (D)
Charlie
Baker (R)
Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 35% 54%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Kennedy III (D)
Charlie
Baker (R)
Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 49% 41%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Steve
Pemberton (D)
Charlie
Baker (R)
Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 31% 56%
Results by county
Markey:
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2020[193]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Ed Markey (incumbent) 2,357,809 66.15% +4.28%
Republican Kevin O'Connor 1,177,765 33.05% -4.93%
Independent Shiva Ayyadurai (write-in) 21,134 0.59% N/A
Write-in 7,428 0.21% +0.06%
Total votes 3,564,136 100.0%
Democratic hold

By county[edit]

Markey won all fourteen of Massachusetts' counties for the second election in a row.

County[194] Ed Markey
Democratic
Kevin O'Connor
Republican
Shiva Ayyadurai
Independent
Write-in Margin Total votes
# % # % # % # % # %
Barnstable 89,977 60.50 57,965 38.97 656 0.44 134 0.09 32,012 21.52 148,732
Berkshire 51,261 73.74 17,697 25.46 488 0.70 66 0.09 33,564 48.28 69,512
Bristol 155,927 57.35 113,750 41.84 1,418 0.52 801 0.29 42,177 15.51 271,896
Dukes 9,767 77.32 2,799 22.16 60 0.47 6 0.05 6,968 55.16 12,632
Essex 267,678 64.58 143,447 34.61 2,451 0.59 909 0.22 124,231 29.97 414,485
Franklin 29,900 71.49 11,241 26.88 570 1.36 114 0.27 18,659 44.61 41,825
Hampden 123,867 58.30 85,790 40.38 2,205 1.04 600 0.28 38,077 17.92 212,462
Hampshire 63,151 72.94 22,577 26.08 697 0.80 155 0.18 40,574 46.86 86,580
Middlesex 611,485 71.97 232,739 27.39 3,916 0.46 1,437 0.17 378,746 44.58 849,577
Nantucket 5,132 71.34 2,034 28.27 0 0.00 28 0.39 3,098 43.06 7,194
Norfolk 265,210 66.19 133,047 33.21 1,386 0.35 1,028 0.26 132,163 32.98 400,671
Plymouth 170,532 57.47 124,084 41.82 1,684 0.57 425 0.14 46,448 15.65 296,725
Suffolk 266,117 81.47 58,982 18.06 612 0.19 949 0.29 207,135 63.41 326,660
Worcester 247,805 58.28 171,613 40.36 4,991 1.17 776 0.18 76,192 17.92 425,185
Totals 2,357,809 66.15 1,177,765 33.04 21,134 0.59 7,428 0.21 1,180,044 33.11 3,564,136

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

General
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Refused" with 0%
  4. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  5. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  6. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  7. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  8. ^ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll conducted for the O'Connor campaign.

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c "Election calendar" (PDF). www.sec.state.ma.us. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  2. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (September 24, 2019). "Joe Kennedy Isn't Your Usual Upstart Primary Challenger". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  3. ^ Jacobson, Louis. "Markey vs. Kennedy: Welcome to the most unusual Senate primary in decades – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Retrieved August 30, 2020.. Arlen Specter, who was elected as a Republican, but switched parties to Democratic, was defeated in 2010 during his first Democratic primary.
  4. ^ Martin, Jonathan (August 17, 2019). "Joseph Kennedy III Said to Be Eyeing Edward Markey's Massachusetts Senate Seat". The New York Times. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  5. ^ Durkee, Allison (September 18, 2019). "Joe Kennedy III is Oficcialy Challenging Ed Markey's Senate Seat". Vanity Fair. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  6. ^ Zhou, Li (September 21, 2019). "Joe Kennedy is officially going after Ed Markey's Senate seat". Vox. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  7. ^ Murray, Stephanie (September 29, 2019). "Ed Markey "gets his Irish up"". Politico. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  8. ^ a b McGrane, Victoria (September 23, 2019). "A key piece of Joe Kennedy's strategy: Appealing to people on the margins". The Boston Globe. Retrieved December 29, 2021.
  9. ^ Foran, Clare; Krieg, Gregory. "Pelosi endorses Joe Kennedy in Massachusetts Senate primary against Ed Markey". CNN. Retrieved September 4, 2020.
  10. ^ Cillizza, Chris. "Why, exactly, did Nancy Pelosi endorse Joe Kennedy III?". CNN. Retrieved August 29, 2020.
  11. ^ "Pelosi endorses Kennedy over Markey in contentious primary". POLITICO. Retrieved August 29, 2020.
  12. ^ a b c d e Murray, Stephanie (May 19, 2020). "Special state SENATE elections today — 'SAFER at HOME' — POT SHOPS begin curbside pickup — HOYER raising money for KENNEDY". Politico.
  13. ^ a b c d e Murray, Stephanie (August 26, 2020). "Should LYNCH be worried — Baker not invited to RNC — Natucket party linked to COVID cases". Politico.
  14. ^ a b Cote, Jackson (August 3, 2020). "Election 2020: Rep. Adam Schiff, Massachusetts native and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, endorses Joe Kennedy III for Senate". Masslive.
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  16. ^ Murray, Stephanie (August 17, 2020). "Markey throws shade at Kennedy family in Senate primary brawl". Politico. Retrieved May 19, 2021.
  17. ^ "Joe Kennedy Defends His Family, Says Markey Is "Weaponizing Their History"". CBS Boston. August 17, 2020. Retrieved May 19, 2021.
  18. ^ Debendetti, Gabriel (August 28, 2020). "How Markey and Kennedy Are Closing Out Their Brutal Primary". New York Magazine. Retrieved December 6, 2021.
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  23. ^ Walker, Adrian (July 28, 2020). "Ed Markey leans into the new justice movement, and says it isn't new to him". The Boston Globe. Retrieved August 25, 2020.
  24. ^ Tiernan, Erin (October 14, 2019). "Pemberton drops of out of 2020 Senate race against Markey". Boston Herald. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
  25. ^ Gregg, Katherine. "Providence native drops Mass. Senate bid to challenge Reed". providencejournal.com. (switched to 2020 U.S. Senate election in Rhode Island Republican candidacy)
  26. ^ @AllenRWaters (August 20, 2020). "I support #termlimits. I support @JoeKennedy in the primary. Old @EdMarkey has been in Congress since the Tall Ships sailed into Boston Harbor in '76 when I was 20. I'm 64, Markey's still there!" (Tweet). Retrieved August 29, 2020 – via Twitter.
  27. ^ DeCosta-Klipa, Nik (November 28, 2018). "Ed Markey: 'I do my best'". Boston.com. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
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  32. ^ a b McGrane, Victoria (November 27, 2018). "After Mike Capuano's defeat, is Ed Markey a primary target for 2020?". The Boston Globe. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  33. ^ Burns, Alexander (September 8, 2018). "Democrats Embrace Liberal Insurgents, Demanding New Face for Party". The New York Times. Retrieved November 14, 2018.
  34. ^ "Seth Moulton Drops Out Of The Race For President". August 23, 2019.
  35. ^ a b c Aberly, Naomi; et al. (August 2020). "Statement of Endorsement by Massachusetts Jewish Community Leaders: Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III for the United States Senate". Politico.
  36. ^ Zhou, Li (September 21, 2019). "Joe Kennedy is officially going after Ed Markey's Senate seat". Vox. Retrieved September 21, 2019.
  37. ^ McGrane, Victoria (August 20, 2020). "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi endorses Joe Kennedy in race against Ed Markey". The Boston Globe.
  38. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp bq br bs bt bu bv bw bx by bz ca cb cc cd ce cf cg ch ci cj ck cl cm cn co cp cq cr cs ct cu cv cw cx cy cz da db dc dd de df dg dh di dj dk dl dm dn do dp dq dr ds dt du dv dw dx dy dz ea eb ec ed ee ef eg eh ei ej ek el em en eo ep eq er es et eu ev ew ex ey ez fa fb fc fd fe ff fg fh fi fj fk fl fm fn fo fp fq fr fs ft fu fv fw fx fy fz ga gb gc gd ge gf gg gh gi gj gk gl gm gn go gp gq gr gs gt gu gv gw gx gy gz ha hb hc hd he hf hg hh hi hj hk hl hm hn ho hp hq hr hs ht hu hv hw hx hy hz ia ib ic id ie if ig ih ii ij ik il im in io ip iq ir is it iu iv iw ix iy iz ja jb Buell, Spencer (July 30, 2020). "In the Endorsement Battle with Joe Kennedy, Ed Markey Is Winning". Boston Magazine.
  39. ^ a b "Freshmen Members Endorse Joe Kennedy III for U.S. Senate". August 3, 2020. Archived from the original on August 29, 2020. Retrieved August 17, 2020.
  40. ^ a b c d "New Wave Of Hispanic Caucus Members Endorse Joe Kennedy III". Archived from the original on August 8, 2020. Retrieved August 4, 2020.
  41. ^ Klein, Asher (August 24, 2020). "As Mass. Senate Primary Nears, Kennedy Campaign Decries Cyberbullying". NBC Boston.
  42. ^ Murray, Stephanie. "Markey throws shade at Kennedy family in Senate primary brawl". POLITICO.
  43. ^ McGrane, Victoria (July 1, 2020). "Kennedy, Markey locked in tight money race". The Boston Globe.
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  45. ^ "Over 350 Latinx Community Members endorse Kennedy for U.S. Senate". August 11, 2020. Archived from the original on September 1, 2020. Retrieved August 17, 2020.
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  69. ^ The Sun Editorial (August 27, 2020). "Kennedy our pick in Democrat Senate primary". The Sun.
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Further reading[edit]

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites