Visit the new 2022 Oscars Prediction Hub
Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.
To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE.
DRAFT>>>PRE SEASON>>>REGULAR SEASON>>>POST SEASON
UPDATED: Apr. 23, 2021
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: Searchlight Pictures’ “Nomadland” has shown it has the ability to pass one of the thorniest tests in the Oscar season canon: the preferential ballot. That’s the method used for selecting a winner at the Producers Guild Awards, which is also used by the Academy Awards for choosing its top prize. On March 24, the film took home the PGA for best picture, which means it’s looking like the Oscar is a done deal.
Of the eight best picture nominees this year, only four — “Minari,” “Nomadland,” “Promising Young Woman” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” — seem to have a shot at winning best picture in April. One of the main issues when looking for an alternative to the front-runner is there has to be a consensus on what the No. 2 is (such as “Parasite” over “1917” or “Moonlight” over “La La Land”), which this year has yet to yield.
PRECURSORS LEADER: “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2020-2021)
2021 Awards Season Calendar
2021 Academy Awards Predictions
- Best Picture
- Best Director
- Best Actor
- Best Actress
- Best Supporting Actor
- Best Supporting Actress
- Best Original Screenplay
- Best Adapted Screenplay
- Best Animated Feature
- Best Production Design
- Best Cinematography
- Best Costume Design
- Best Film Editing
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Best Sound
- Best Visual Effects
- Best Original Score
- Best Original Song
- Best Documentary Feature
- Best International Feature
- Best Animated Short
- Best Documentary Short
- Best Live-Action Short
Awards Circuit Winners Chart
Awards Circuit (Column) Archives
- Final Oscars Predictions 2021: Who Will Win and Who Should Win? – (Apr. 21, 2021)
- Final Oscar Voting Begins, Can Chloé Zhao Tie Walt Disney With Most Wins in One Night? – (Apr. 15, 2021)
- Inside the Unpredictable Oscar Race for Best Actress – Any of the Five Can Win This Year – (Apr. 8, 2021)
- With SAG Awards Next, Does ‘Nomadland’ Have the Oscars Wrapped Up Without Cast Ensemble? – (Apr. 1, 2021)
- Sister Scribes: Oscar History Could Be Made With the Screenplay Awards – (Mar. 25, 2021)
- Best Picture Oscar Contenders: Which Films Can Actually Win? – (Mar. 18, 2021)
- Final Oscar Nomination Predictions: ‘Nomadland’ and Netflix Can Rule the Wild and Crazy Year (Column) – (Mar. 11, 2021)
- Variety Awards Editor Clayton Davis’ 2021 Oscar Nominations Ballot – (Mar. 4, 2021)
- Final Predictions for the Golden Globes: A Night Made for Streamers and Chadwick Boseman? – (Feb. 25, 2021)
- Only Three Actors Have Won the Oscar Without Nods From Golden Globes and SAG – (Feb. 18, 2021)
- Searching for the Oscar Nomination Shocker: Who Will Receive the Acting Nod No One Saw Coming? – (Feb. 11, 2021)
- 5 Big Takeaways From the Golden Globes and How It Leads to the Oscars – (Feb. 4, 2021)
- Which Films Are Trending to Receive the Most Oscar Nominations? – (Jan. 28, 2021)
- Delroy Lindo and Kelly Reichardt Among Possible First-Time Oscar Nominees That Should Already Have Nominations – (Jan. 21, 2021)
- Sizing Up Contenders as SAG Voting Begins – (Jan. 14, 2021)
- Party Crashers: Six Films Coming Out in 2021 That Could Be Oscar Contenders – (Jan. 7, 2021)
- Frances McDormand Could Be First Woman Nominated for Best Picture and Acting Oscars – (Dec. 30, 2020)
- Who Received the Biggest Awards Season Boost from New York and Los Angeles? – (Dec. 24, 2020)
- 10 Underdog Movies That Deserve Oscar’s Attention – (Dec. 17, 2020)
- Honorary Oscar Recommendations: Is It Time for Indiana Jones and Chucky? – (Dec. 10, 2020)
- Sacha Baron Cohen, Leslie Odom Jr. and Chloe Zhao Have a Shot at Multiple Oscar Noms This Season (Column) – (Dec 3, 2020)
- How Will the SAG Awards Shape the Oscar Race? (Column) – (Nov. 19, 2020)
- Will the Oscars Reward Repeat Nominees Like Glenn Close and Amy Adams This Season? (Column) – (Nov. 12, 2020)
- How Will the Gotham Awards Shape This Year’s Unusual Oscars Race? – (Nov. 5, 2020)
- In a Year Filled With Hardship, Will Comedies Like ‘Borat 2,’ ‘On the Rocks’ and More Finally Get Some Academy Love? – (Oct. 29, 2020)
- Women Directors Could Make History at the Next Oscars (Column) – Awards Circuit (Oct. 22, 2020)
- Could Chadwick Boseman Be the First Person to Earn Two Posthumous Oscar Acting Nominations in the Same Year? – Awards Circuit (Oct. 15, 2020)
- This Oscar Season Could Be for the Young and the Newcomers – Awards Circuit (Oct. 8, 2020)
- Chadwick Boseman Could Be Among a Record 7 Posthumous Oscar Nominations – Awards Circuit (Oct. 1, 2020)
- Aaron Sorkin Enters the Race as ‘West Side Story’ Exits – Awards Circuit (Sept. 24, 2020)
- Awards Circuit: How Toronto Shook Up the Oscar Race with ‘Nomadland,’ Idris Elba and Kate Winslet (Sept. 17, 2020)
2021 Golden Globes Predictions (Film)
- Best Motion Picture – Drama
- Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
- Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
- Best Motion Picture – Animated
- Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)
- Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)
- Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)
- Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)
- Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
- Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
- Best Director – Motion Picture
2021 Golden Globes Final Predictions (TV)
- Best TV Series (Drama)
- Best TV Series (Comedy or Musical)
- Best TV Movie/Limited Series
- Best TV Actress (Drama)
- Best TV Actor (Drama)
- Best TV Actress (Comedy)
- Best TV Actor (Comedy)
- Best TV Actress (Limited Series/TV Movie)
- Best TV Actor (Limited Series/TV Movie)
- Best TV Supporting Actress
- Best TV Supporting Actor
2021 SAG Awards Predictions (Film)
- Best Performance by an Ensemble in a Motion Picture
- Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
- Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
- Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
- Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
- Best Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
About the Academy Awards (Oscars)
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
- The Oscars are scheduled for Sunday, April 25, 2021.
About the Golden Globes
The Golden Globes Awards, hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, is held annually with 93 members since 1944. The group recognizes excellence in film and television across drama and comedy or musical categories. Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” holds the record for the most awards won by a single film with seven. Milos Forman’s “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and Alan Parker’s “Midnight Express” are next in line with six each. Robert Altman’s “Nashville” has the record for most nominations received by a film with 11 while Colin Higgins’ “Foul Play,” Francis Ford Coppola’s “The Godfather Part III” and Mike Nichols’ “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” share the record for receiving the most nominations and not winning a single award at seven.
- The Golden Globes are scheduled for Feb. 28, 2021.
About the SAG Awards
The Screen Actors Guild Awards, hosted by SAG-AFTRA, is an annual award show that has become one of the most important and key indicators for the Oscars. Four films have won the most SAG awards with three: 1999’s “American Beauty,” 2002’s “Chicago,” 2011’s “The Help” and 2017’s “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Three movies have been nominated for the most SAG awards with five: 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” “Chicago” and 2008’s “Doubt.”
- The SAG Awards are scheduled to take place on Sunday, April 4, 2021
