In many states this November, the presidential candidate who snags the winner's share of electoral votes is unlikely to be a surprise.
But across seven swing states – stretching from the desert Southwest to the Upper Midwest and back down into the South – the outcome remains very much in play, and the 93 votes up for grabs are likely to decide who ultimately ends up in the White House come January: incumbent President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.
What Is a Swing State?
A swing state, according to a by-the-book definition, is one that’s “considered to play a key role in the outcome of presidential elections” and where candidates of both the Democratic and Republican parties “have similar levels of support.” The group of swing states is often similar during each presidential election cycle, though factors like changing demographics and turnout can make a traditionally red or blue state turn purple. Georgia, for example, swung into the swing state category in the wake of Biden’s surprise victory there in 2020 and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s election win in 2022.
Trump and Biden – both of whom have clinched their party’s presidential nominations – already have made swing states a priority of their campaigns, targeting them with visits and rallies as the election season steams toward Nov. 5.
What Are the 2024 Swing States?
Here are U.S. News’ seven swing states to watch for the 2024 election. Click through to learn more about each state and its significance.
Arizona
2024 Swing States
Electoral Votes: 11
The Grand Canyon State swinging from a Trump victory in 2016 to a narrow Biden win in 2020 bucked a decadeslong trend, as a Republican candidate had won the state in every other presidential election this century.
Arizona’s battleground status is a testament to its changing demographics, and immigration – always a polarizing issue, but especially so in 2024 – is a major talking point in the border state this year.
Georgia
2024 Swing States
Electoral Votes: 16
Georgia is another example of how the group of swing states can vary.
Biden’s major victory there in 2020 marked the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had won the Peach State since Bill Clinton in 1992.
Black voter turnout and enthusiasm in 2020 played an important role in Biden’s win, and the voting bloc again could prove pivotal in November.
Michigan
2024 Swing States
Electoral Votes: 15
The Great Lakes State has almost always gone Democratic in recent decades, but is also no stranger to being a battleground.
It’s one of three states – along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – that formed a “blue wall” for Biden in 2020, but Trump won each state over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Recent survey data indicates that the economy is of utmost importance to Michigan voters, and the state’s working class is a key group for both candidates to win over.
Nevada
2024 Swing States
Electoral Votes: 6
The fact that Nevada has the lowest number of electoral votes among the seven swing states shouldn’t minimize its importance in the presidential election.
Biden’s 2020 win marked the fourth consecutive victory by Democratic candidates in the Silver State, but the margin was relatively small that year and in 2016, when Clinton won it.
Though it’s fairly close to the southern border and more than 30% of its relatively diverse population is Hispanic, polling indicates the economy tops immigration as a key election issue in the state.
North Carolina
2024 Swing States
Electoral Votes: 16
The Tar Heel State may “lean Republican,” according to a U.S. News analysis, but it’s still a definite swing state. Trump won North Carolina by just 1.3 percentage points in 2020.
Biden made the state the last stop on a post-State of the Union tour of swing states, and Democrats hope North Carolina will prove to be the Georgia of 2024.
The state also could be a crucial pickup for Biden should other battlegrounds side with Trump.
Pennsylvania
2024 Swing States
Electoral Votes: 19
The Keystone State clinched the “blue wall” – and the presidency – for Biden, its native son, in 2020.
Trump’s win there in 2016, however, snapped a streak of Democratic candidates carrying the state, and Biden only won by 1.2 percentage points four years ago.
Its 19 electoral votes amount to the fifth-most overall and the highest number among swing states.
Wisconsin
2024 Swing States
Electoral Votes: 10
Alphabetically the last of the “blue wall” states, Wisconsin was once considered a reliably blue Rust Belt state until Trump eked out a victory there in 2016 and cemented its status as a battleground. Biden then flipped the script with his own narrow Badger State victory over the former president in 2020. Both of the main 2024 candidates were headed there in April, demonstrating the value of Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes.
