Gavin Newsom is running for re-election in California. So why is he running ads in Florida?

UPDATE: ‘Need an abortion?’ California debuts red state billboards as GOP pushes national ban.

Gov. Gavin Newsom is running for re-election in California.

But on Monday, he will be starring in TV ads that will air in Florida.

Newsom, as he has often done over the past 25 years, is playing the long game.

The ads are the latest move in what his advisers say is Newsom’s effort to stand up nationally for Democratic values. He’s been posting “truths” about red states on Donald Trump’s new social media platform, ripping Supreme Court justices for their decisions on abortion, guns and the environment, chiding rival governors in Texas and Florida, doing national media interviews and even calling out his fellow Democrats for being too passive.

“I’m resolved to wake all of us up to what is going on in this country,” Newsom said recently. To “what is happening in real time that is not getting the attention it deserves in red states across America. (Conservatives are) aggressively and successfully rolling back rights that all of us have come to take for granted.”

But there is another, unspoken reason that Newsom is bumping up his national profile as a fighter: He is warming up in the bullpen for the 2024 presidential campaign — just in case Joe Biden decides not to seek re-election. (Biden insists that he’s running. And Newsom insists he wants Vice President Kamala Harris to be Biden’s successor.)

But if Biden doesn’t run, a flood of Democratic candidates would emerge, perhaps rivaling the 27 who ran in 2020. The list starts with Harris, whom Newsom grew up with in the hothouse of San Francisco politics.

“Overtly, he’s not running. But he certainly hasn’t eliminated it from possibility,” said Mark Buell, a national Democratic donor in San Francisco who has known and supported both Harris and Newsom since their earliest days in politics.

Newsom won’t be the first to dive in if Biden doesn’t run, Buell predicted.

“I believe he has to be asked,” Buell said. “He has to be convinced that people want his style of leadership.”

Newsom told The Chronicle in May that he had “subzero interest” in running for president. “It’s not even on my radar.”

Maybe it isn’t now. But here are some of the factors to watch as Newsom expands his national profile that could signal a presidential run:

Republican trolling or truth telling: Newsom has nothing to lose by popping up periodically on Trump’s Truth Social or by spending $104,000 to run ads in Florida, a red state led by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is similarly eyeing a 2024 run.

It’s a free shot for Newsom. He can appear tough by venturing deep into a red state — and it won’t cost him any votes. For now. And DeSantis — who opposes abortion rights and coronavirus-related restrictions and backs looser gun restrictions — is the perfect foil for him.

“He’s so read up on Ron DeSantis and what’s happening in Florida,” Jonathan Martin, co-author of the new political book on the 2020 campaign, “This Will Not Pass,” told The Chronicle’s “It’s All Political” on the “Fifth & Mission” podcast. “He can smell that matchup from a mile away. He knows what’s happening on Fox News, and he can speak at great length about what the California story is versus the Florida story.”

It’s not the first time Newsom has run ads outside of California. For example, just a few months after becoming governor in May 2019, Newsom ran national ads on Facebook encouraging hundreds of thousands of users to add their names to a list of supporters who want to “defend Roe v. Wade.” Data from Facebook’s ad library shows the ads were mostly shown to people outside of California. The next most represented states in several of those ad buys? Ohio and Florida, perennial presidential swing states.

Comparisons to other states: In the past few weeks, Newsom has focused on comparing California’s policies restricting guns, safeguarding abortion access and reducing carbon emissions with other states’ in the wake of Supreme Court rulings. No other state is doing more, he often says.

“I represent a state that’s fighting for freedom, fighting for reproductive rights,” Newsom said last month during a news conference excoriating the U.S. Supreme Court for overturning the nationwide right to an abortion. “I want folks to know all around the rest of the country and parts of the globe that I hope we’re your antidote to fear or anxiety, perhaps to the cynicism that many of you are feeling.”

During the news conference, he name-dropped a litany of Republicans from other states who he said were taking the country backward with their conservative policies: Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.

Who didn’t he mention? The guy he’s actually running against.

California state Sen. Brian Dahle, the Bieber (Lassen County) Republican challenging Newsom in the November governor’s race, said Newsom’s interest in national prominence comes at a cost in California. Dahle said his opponent should focus on lowering gas and energy costs for residents in his state.

“I think he’s focused on running for president, and it’s unfortunate,” Dahle said. “I’m getting calls every day from people who are struggling in California.”

Newsom’s assertions about having a “subzero” interest in the White House ring hollow when he focusing on national politics and buying ads in another state, said Sacramento Democratic political strategist Andrew Acosta.

“When the governor protests that it’s not on his radar, but he makes these moves, it makes political folks roll their eyes and say, ‘Of course he’s running,’” Acosta said.

Would Newsom have enough money? If Newsom were to decide to run, three top donors told The Chronicle that he’ll be able to raise enough to start a credible national campaign. He would be able to tap into donors from Silicon Valley and the state’s powerful labor unions that he has cultivated for two decades.

“He certainly could launch a credible campaign,” Buell said. “He’s got the name recognition.”

Newsom could harvest enough California money even with Harris in the race. She hasn’t been able to bulk up her own fundraising war chest, as every dollar she raises goes to the Democratic National Committee or some other fundraising well that isn’t dedicated solely to her.

Not deferring to Kamala: Just because Harris and Newsom have shared the same political advisers and fundraising base and grew up akin to rival political siblings in San Francisco — he was elected mayor and she, district attorney in 2003 — doesn’t mean he won’t run if she’s in the race.

Newsom might hesitate somewhat if the Democratic primary started as a one-on-one race between him and Harris. But if Biden doesn’t run, there initially could be dozens of Democrats in the field, giving him cover to jump in.

Other Democrats could consider Harris vulnerable. Her approval ratings — 39% — are as bad as Biden’s. She has been saddled with a portfolio of intractable challenges— the roots of Central American immigration, improving voting rights — that have contributed to her plight.

While Newsom easily won the governor’s race in 2018 and handily beat back a recall attempt last year, Harris dropped out of the presidential race in December 2019, shortly after a Public Policy Institute of California survey showed she was running in fourth place in the primary field — among the California voters who knew her best.

Newsom in Iowa? The Democratic National Committee is mulling whether Iowa will maintain its spot as the first contest on the campaign trail in 2024. If it does, it will be curious to see how Newsom’s brand of West Coast wonk plays in the heartland.

Iowa may be trending as a red state — it supported Trump twice — but the state’s Democrats lean left. Sen. Bernie Sanders won the popular vote in 2020, while Pete Buttigieg secured the most delegates. Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012. Newsom shares a similar spot on the political spectrum as Obama and Buttigieg. He could get traction.

“There will be a group of Democrats who want that fighter. Who gets in the face of people,” said Timothy Hagle, a professor of political science at the University of Iowa and expert on the caucuses.

Iowa Republican Party Chair Jeff Kaufmann said “it would probably be helpful to the Republican Party” if Newsom ran. Kaufmann would immediately start attacking California’s “record homelessness,” he said.

Plus, Newsom would hear an earful about how Iowa pork producers are livid about California’s Proposition 12, a 2018 voter-approved ballot measure that imposes the nation’s largest living space standards for breeding pigs. Iowa farmers say the proposal would cost millions to comply with and would be a burden in the state that is the nation’s leading pork producer. The Supreme Court will hear a case on the dispute in its next term.

Using Washington gridlock as a foil: Newsom often points to liberal policies that have sailed through in California, such as recent protections for doctors in the Golden State who perform abortions for women from other parts of the country.

On Thursday, minutes after the Supreme Court issued a decision limiting the federal government’s ability to regulate carbon emissions, Newsom was ready with a video promoting California’s climate change policies.

In contrast, he’s criticized Democrats at the national level for not doing enough to fight back against conservative policies like abortion restrictions.

“Stop playing defense, Democrats,” he chided last month.

It’s not necessarily a fair comparison. In California, Newsom lacks the Republican opposition facing Biden and other Democrats in Washington. Democrats control supermajorities in both houses of the state Legislature, and among registered voters outnumber Republicans nearly 2-to-1.

That allows them to pass composting requirements and bans on high-capacity gun magazines (restrictions that are now under threat, thanks to a recent Supreme Court ruling). It also means Newsom probably doesn’t see Dahle as much of a threat in the governor’s race.

That gives Newsom room to focus on the national stage. Democrats lack the kind of national figures who are aggressively championing liberal policies the way Republicans do for conservative issues, something their base voters crave, Acosta said. They also lack a deep bench of candidates to succeed Biden as the national standard-bearer.

And with a massive war chest and an easy re-election race in California, focusing on the national stage makes sense.

“Why shouldn’t he?” Acosta said. “He’s got nothing else to do.”

Joe Garofoli and Sophia Bollag are San Francisco Chronicle staff writers. Email: jgarofoli@sfchronicle.com, sophia.bollag@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @JoeGarofoli, @SophiaBollag