Ursula von der Leyen is the favourite to keep leading the EU—right?

If a politician gives a speech but no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission since 2019, might have pondered this as she addressed the largely empty chamber of the European Parliament in Strasbourg on April 23rd. Despite grandiloquent claims of holding the European Union’s powerful executive arm to account, a mere handful of the over 700 MEPs showed up. Granted, those lawmakers who deigned to attend were treated to little more than a platitudinous account of an unremarkable meeting of European leaders the previous week. But the lack of cheering—the lack of anything—for Mrs von der Leyen among her fellow denizens of the EU bubble is enough to raise eyebrows. For soon the head of the 30,000-strong Brussels machine will have to persuade a majority of those MEPs to back her for a second five-year stint. The aura of inevitability of a von der Leyen second term has dimmed of late.

The 65-year-old German is hardly the first commission president to address a largely empty parliament (MEPs are often said to be busy with some other vital business). She is, however, the first to run for a second term since a new constitution-like treaty changed the way the EU was run in 2009. An attempt to make the top brass in Brussels seem more accountable to the public, by linking their appointment to the results of European Parliament elections, was well-intentioned, but has the capacity to kick up unpredictable results. As the incumbent, and only credible, candidate, Mrs von der Leyen remains odds-on to stick around after the elections on June 6th-9th. But her path to reappointment is more difficult than it once looked. At worst, a mishap could leave the EU ditching a competent and experienced leader at a time of war, economic torpor and potential Trumpism.

In theory, two things must happen for Mrs von der Leyen to get her extension to 2029. The first is that the EU’s 27 national leaders must nominate her for the job, probably in the immediate aftermath of the vote in June. Then a majority of the 720 new MEPs must “elect” the president of the commission, in the odd parlance of Brussels (even in Russia’s sham democracy, an election pits several candidates against each other). In practice, a third condition must be fulfilled: only a politician from the political group that won most seats in the chamber is likely to be nominated by leaders or approved by parliament. As the figurehead for the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), which is far ahead in the polls, Mrs von der Leyen is likely to go into the process in an ironclad position. But then comes the politics.

In theory most national leaders should love her. Mrs von der Leyen has pleased southern Europeans by setting up a post-pandemic recovery fund backed by joint borrowing; northern Europeans have seen their concerns about climate change addressed; eastern Europeans appreciate her staunch support of Ukraine. The only leader to campaign openly against Mrs von der Leyen is Viktor Orban, the cantankerous Hungarian prime minister, but he has no veto to wield; if the leaders cannot reach a consensus they can simply outvote him. Olaf Scholz of Germany is likely to back his compatriot even if they are not of the same party. Some leaders have gripes, like Poland’s Donald Tusk, who is of the same group as Mrs von der Leyen but dislikes a recent migration deal she championed. Pedro Sánchez in Spain is no fan of her unflappably pro-Israel stance. Having announced he is considering his position as prime minister, he may have aspirations to a top Euro-job of his own, possibly chairing meetings of EU leaders.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle to a von der Leyen second term is Emmanuel Macron. France’s president helped get her the job, but seems less enthused now. Mindful that his political career will end after the next presidential election in three years, he would like a more deeply federalised EU as his legacy, for example funded with more joint borrowing. Could a new top Euro-wallah push further, faster? Promoting a fresh face in Europe would help him distract attention from what looks likely to be an electoral battering in France in June: Marine Le Pen’s hard-right National Rally is polling at twice Mr Macron’s party in what is the last nationwide ballot before the presidential vote.

The parliament will prove trickier still. A coalition of at least three groups will be needed to reach a majority. The centrist alliance that backed Mrs von der Leyen in 2019 controlled 444 seats. This was 70 more than she needed, yet she scraped through with only nine votes to spare. This time her groups are predicted by the polls to be heading for a buffer of only 34 seats. Already some of her supposed EPP allies, like the French Republican party, have announced they will not back her. Broadening her coalition by bringing in the hard-right acolytes of Giorgia Meloni, say, would get her over the line. But that might compromise her appeal to liberals whose votes she also needs. The German is a technocrat at heart, with little experience of backroom politicking; the parliament enjoys flexing its muscles to remind the world it matters (or exists). That makes for unpredictable outcomes.

Leyen down the law

A failure for a candidate put forward by EU leaders to secure a majority in the parliament would result in gridlock. If not Mrs von der Leyen, then who? Mario Draghi, the former Italian prime minister and boss of the European Central Bank, will soon unveil a report on the future of the European economy that is likely to chime with Mr Macron’s federalist vision, and would dazzle MEPs looking for a figurehead. But he is 76 and has played no part in the EU election campaign. Others on the centre-right, like Greece’s Kyriakos Mitsotakis, would face as many questions as the incumbent. For that reason, Mrs von der Leyen is still likely to bag the prize. But the road to a second term is likely to prove tortuous. ■

Read more from Charlemagne, our columnist on European politics:
How a conservative conference morphed into a crisis of liberalism (Apr 17th)
What happens if Ukraine loses? (Apr 11th)
Germany’s Free Democrats have become desperate spoilers (Apr 4th)

Also: How the Charlemagne column got its name