Early Tuesday evening, Todd Helton will anxiously wait for his phone to ring, hoping for a life-changing call.
Chances look good that the Rockies icon will be told that he’s been elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. It’s by no means a slam dunk that Helton will be a member of the Class of 2024, but he’s trending in that direction.
Helton, in his sixth year on the ballot, needs at least 75% of the vote by eligible members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America to make it to Cooperstown. As of Friday, he was garnering 83.4%, according to the Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker. That percentage was based on 170 ballots made public, as well as 11 anonymous ballots, making for 47.1% of the estimated 384 ballots cast.
“It’s going to be close, and there is going to be some tension,” said Ryan Thibodaux, who’s directed the vote tracker for 11 years. “But it looks like Helton is on a path to make it.”
Thibodaux cautioned, however, that for players like Helton, who are not clear-cut, first-ballot Hall of Famers, their voting percentage generally drops by about 6% when the official totals are revealed.
“I do expect his numbers to drop, but it varies from candidate to candidate,” Thibodaux said. “But I’d say that 6% is a pretty good ballpark figure for a player like Helton.”
Players remain on the BBWAA’s ballot for 10 years but are removed if they don’t reach the 5% threshold. So if Helton does not make it, he’ll still have four more chances.
Helton, 50, retired after the 2013 season. He played all 17 seasons of his major league career with the Rockies, is the franchise leader in nearly every offensive category, and was the first player to have his number retired.
“Todd Helton going into the Hall of Fame should be a no-brainer, and he should already be in Cooperstown, and it boggles my mind that he isn’t,” said former Rockies teammate Matt Holliday, who played with Helton from 2004 to ’09, including the 2007 World Series season. “Todd was our leader and he set the example for a young team.”
Added former Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who played with Helton from 2006 to ’13: “He was a fierce competitor and that’s what sticks out the most for me. He came to play every single day, no matter how he felt.
“And for me, as a young player coming up, the thing that stood out was his approach at the plate. He was the epitome of a professional hitter and he made every pitcher work. He had those 10-pitch at-bats and then he would get a hit the other way. Even when he didn’t get on base he would make the pitcher work, and that made it better for the rest of us.”
Helton posted a career OPS of .953 (133 OPS+) with 369 home runs. From 2000 to ’05, he was one of the very best players in baseball. His 42.1 bWAR was third in the majors behind only Barry Bonds (52.8) and Alex Rodriguez (51.7). Helton made five All-Star teams and won three Gold Gloves, but his numbers tailed off in the second half of his career.
If Helton does cross the 75% threshold, he’ll become the second Rockies player to be honored with a plaque in Cooperstown, joining Larry Walker (Class of 2020). Walker, who made the Hall of Fame in his 10th and final year on the ballot, undoubtedly helped open the door for Helton and helped overcome the “Coors Field factor.”
The fact that Helton played half of his games at baseball’s most hitter-friendly ballpark has been held against him by some voters, such as The New York York Post’s Jon Heyman, who wrote that Helton was a “very near miss,” adding, “Nothing against overheated Coors Field, but the bulk numbers aren’t quite there for a first baseman in that atmosphere.”
There’s no question that Helton’s career splits were dramatic. He posted a .345/.441/.607 slash line and hit 227 of his 369 career homers in the mile-high air. Still, Helton’s road numbers were solid: .287/.386/.469. And consider this: Helton’s career .855 OPS away from Coors Field is better than the road numbers of several Hall of Famers, including Dave Winfield (.841), Eddie Murray (.838), Rickey Henderson (.836), Tony Gwynn (.835), Al Kaline (.827) and George Brett (.825).
“Let’s just judge guys on the ballplayer they were,” said Holliday, a seven-time All-Star who played eight seasons with St. Louis after leaving Colorado. “It should not be held against Todd that he played his whole career with the Rockies. He was a great player, regardless. As a guy who’s been around and played in nearly every park, I feel like my opinion is an informed one.
“The people who are studying the game and are doing their homework can see that Todd was a great player for a long time. And so was Larry Walker — and not just at Coors Field. So I’m hopeful that we can finally put to bed the idea that Coors Field is the only hitter-friendly park in baseball that inflates numbers.”
The Coors Field factor suppressed Helton’s vote totals early in his candidacy, but he’s seen a dramatic increase in support in recent years, going from 16.5% in 2019 to 72.2% last year, when he missed being elected by just 11 votes.
As Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs noted, of the 24 times since 1966 that a candidate received at least 70% but less than 75% and still had eligibility remaining, 20 times that candidate was elected the next year. The only exceptions were Jim Bunning (twice) and Curt Schilling (twice).
Still, some voters dropped Helton from their ballots this year, which could make his election tight.
“The bad news for Helton is that five voters who voted for him last year dropped him this year, while four who didn’t vote for him last year did vote for him this year,” Thibodaux said. “So, overall, that’s a minus-1 for Todd. The good news is that he’s received votes from nine of 10 first-ballot voters.”
Thibodaux added that BBWAA voters tend to get on the bandwagon when a player gets close.
“The late public voters — those who reveal their votes after the announcement — and the guys who keep their ballots private tend to rally their support when someone gets close,” Thibadoux said. “We saw that with Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker.
“The year that they get in, those private ballots tend to flood toward those candidates. I honestly don’t see why that wouldn’t happen for Todd this year, based on what he did last year.”
Helton’s Hall of Fame Credentials
Rockies first baseman Todd Helton is in his sixth year on the ballot for the National Baseball Hall of Fame. If elected, Helton will be inducted into the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, N.Y. on July 21.
Like former teammate Larry Walker before him, one of the primary arguments against Helton’s Hall of Fame case has been the number of games he played in the thin air of Coors Field. Still, there are plenty of numbers to back up his case.
Here are some highlights from his 17-year career:
• Played his entire career with the Rockies, and leads the franchise in games played (2,247), runs (1,401), hits (2,519), doubles (592), home runs (369), RBIs (1,406) and walks (1,335).
• He is one of two players in Rockies history to be selected as an All-Star in five consecutive seasons (also Nolan Arenado, 2015-19).
• Posted a career slash line of .316/.414/.539. Only six other players in major league history posted equal or higher averages in all three categories: Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, Stan Musial, Babe Ruth and Ted Williams (all of them are in the Hall of Fame).
• From 1997 to 2013, Helton led all National League first basemen with 2,247 games played and over that span he also led NL first basemen in runs (1,401), hits (2,519), doubles (592), triples (37), RBI (1,406) and walks (1,335), while ranking second in home runs (369).
• Was a three-time Gold Glove Award winner (2001-03, 2004) and four-time Silver Slugger winner (2000-03).
• At the peak of his career, from 1999 to 2003, Helton was one of only four players in major league history with five or more consecutive seasons of a .320 or better batting average, 30 or more home runs, 100 or more RBIs and 100 or more runs scored. The others are Gehrig (1930-37), Ruth (1926-32) and Foxx (1932-36).
• Helton posted a 1.048 OPS at Coors Field vs. a .855 OPS on the road.
• Helton is in the top 40 for career doubles (20th), OPS (.953, 23rd), intentional walks (185, 26th), on-base percentage (29th), slugging percentage (37th), walks (38th) and extra-base hits (998, 40th).
Sources: Colorado Rockies and Baseball Reference
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