Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen leaves tough legacy for president-elect William Lai

Observers say Lai's pro-independence leanings could make managing cross-strait ties, which worsened under Tsai, even more challenging
But without a DPP majority in parliament, he might be forced to take a more careful approach to relations with Beijing, analysts say

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen made history in 2016 when she was elected the first female leader of the island.

But as she prepares to bow out after finishing her second four-year term in May, she will leave a difficult legacy for her successor, president-elect William Lai Ching-te, as Taiwan has been considered one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints for conflict during her presidency, observers said.

The Economist called Taiwan "the most dangerous place on Earth" in its May 2021 cover story warning of a potential conflict over the self-ruled island.

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That warning has been echoed by prominent political figures, including Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, who in a speech in April described tensions over the Taiwan Strait as the "most dangerous flashpoint" for conflict.

Taiwan election: Lai's victory risks further tensions with Beijing

Observers said Tsai's handling of cross-strait relations was the primary source of the risk of conflict, though some pundits said she was not the only one to blame.

James Yifan Chen, a professor of diplomacy and international relations at Tamkang University in New Taipei, said cross-strait tensions continued to rise after Tsai became the island's leader, with Taiwan increasingly seen as a dangerous hotspot for conflict globally.

When Tsai took over from her predecessor Ma Ying-jeou of the mainland-friendly Kuomintang in 2016, she dropped Ma's engagement policy towards Beijing. She refused to accept the "1992 consensus" - a verbal agreement, recognised by Ma, that Taiwan is part of "one China", though the two sides could have different views of what that China stands for.

Her refusal led Beijing to suspend official talks and exchanges, poach nine of the island's allies and stage military drills around the island as part of a pressure campaign in Taipei.

Tensions flared as Beijing, which sees Taiwan as a part of China to be reunited by force if necessary, has intensified military operations around the island.

Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.

Saturday's poll saw Tsai's deputy Lai, previously known as a member of the hardcore pro-independence camp, elected president, scoring an unprecedented third consecutive term for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

"The fact that Washington has decided to send a delegation to Taiwan shortly after the election indicates that the US is concerned about the growing geopolitical tensions fuelled by the cross-strait stalemate," Chen said.

A US delegation, led by former national security adviser Stephen Hadley and former deputy secretary of state James Steinberg, arrived in Taiwan on Sunday, a day after the island's presidential election.

According to the American Institute in Taiwan - Washington's de facto embassy on the island in the absence of official ties - the group, accompanied by AIT chairwoman Laura Rosenberger, will meet a "range of leading political figures" on Monday.

"[They] will convey congratulations from the American people to Taiwan on its successful elections, support for Taiwan's continued prosperity and growth, and our long-standing interest in cross-strait peace and stability," it said.

International media focus on tensions, security and uncertainty as Taiwan votes

Observers said Tsai's record on cross-strait relations could create challenges for Lai, and his pro-independence stance would test his ability to manage the predicament.

"The personality and political leanings of Lai could make him less compromising than Tsai when it comes to certain issues," said Lu Yeh-chung, vice dean of the college of international affairs at National Chengchi University in Taipei.

Tsai has been known for her willingness to compromise to prevent the cross-strait situation from worsening, as evidenced by her insistence on maintaining the status quo and decision not to declare independence, observers said.

"It remains to be seen how far Lai will go in terms of following Tsai's approach in dealing with the mainland," Lu said.

But he noted that Lai would be a minority leader as his party failed to secure the majority in parliament that Tsai enjoyed, perhaps forcing him to take a more careful approach to avoid provoking Beijing - at least in his first year as president.

Lu said Tsai was able to increase Taiwan's international visibility, but her handling of cross-strait ties had left the world worried.

Lu said Lai's ability to ease these concerns by reducing cross-strait tensions would also be tested.

Ho Chih-yung, a professor of general education at National Tsing Hua University in Hsinchu, south of Taipei, said Lai also had to deal with the island's economic relations with Beijing, which have been hampered by Tsai's New Southbound Policy.

Tsai adopted the policy to try to reduce the island's reliance on the mainland market and encourage Taiwanese business leaders to shift their investments to Southeast Asia and India.

Ho said Tsai introduced the policy shortly after she assumed office, but so far its effect had not been as good as expected, given that Taiwan's trade reliance on mainland China remained relatively high.

Taiwan's exports to the mainland stood at 38 per cent in 2022, slightly less than the 40-odd per cent in the first six years of Tsai's presidency.

Chang Teng-chi, former chair of National Taiwan University's department of political science, said Lai might pursue policies that could be interpreted as preparing for Taiwan's independence, such as policies to weaken "traditional Chinese elements" in Taiwanese culture and education.

"Faced with the predicament of being a minority government and without a grip on the legislature, I believe Lai must achieve something to get re-elected in four years," he said.

"Although it seems that he should be more pragmatic going forward, he may also want to become more 'combative' to shake off the 'baggage' of Tsai's legacy on both domestic and foreign fronts."

Chang said Lai could be expected to carry on with the New Southbound Policy to shed the island's economic reliance on mainland China. He added that he would not "respond lightly" if Beijing were to increase pressure on Taipei through additional trade probes or military drills in the Taiwan Strait.

Beijing's dilemma if DPP wins Taiwan election: what level of response?

Xin Qiang, a deputy director at Fudan University's Centre for American studies in Shanghai, said Lai would not veer from Tsai's key policy planks such as the New Southbound Policy.

"The policy is more about politics than economy, so Lai will carry it forward. Lai is not that different from Tsai as both are obstinate proponents of Taiwan independence. Of course, Lai has branded himself as being more aggressive, calling himself a pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence," Xin said.

But the scholar added that Lai would face external constraints and internal checks and balances as he pressed ahead with his "separatist" cause.

"Lai knows too well Beijing's stance and where the red line is and at the same time Washington has shown no intentions to abolish its one-China policy and reiterated its position of not supporting Taiwan. Internally, being a minority government with the DPP ceding the control of the legislature, Lai will have to grapple with a stronger opposition if he is to pursue more reckless cross-strait policies."

Additional reporting by Frank Chen