London Playbook PM: Good and mostly bad news for Rishi Sunak

17 mins read

May 3, 2024 6:23 pm CET

Good afternoon. This is Andrew McDonald.

BREAKING: The BBC and polling guru John Curtice have just unveiled their “projected national share” — which translates the results into a projection of a national outcome if Brits voted the same way as they did yesterday. It has Labour on 34 percent … the Tories on 25 percent … Lib Dems on 17 percent … and others on 24 percent. Which leaves the same gap between Labour and Tories as last year.

The guru view: “It really is for the most part a picture of stasis,” Curtice told the BBC. “No great dramatic change, with reasons for all parties to ask themselves: could we have done better, but equally still leaving Labour in pole position.”

FRIDAY’S CHEAT SHEET

— Local election results continue to paint a grim picture for the Tories, despite a win for Ben Houchen in Tees Valley.

— But a Tory plotter has admitted their chances of ousting Sunak are over.

— Labour picked up big wins in Yorkshire and the East Midlands … but are worried about contests in London and the West Midlands.

— Playbook PM has a run-through of every result so far.

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TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

LITTLE HAS CHANGED: The outlook remains grim for the Conservatives after Labour marched on to more gains in councils and some mayoral races in England following Thursday’s local elections. But Rishi Sunak’s position appears safe after a sprinkling of good news was provided by the Tees Valley mayoral race — and Tory plotters are lowering their guns for now, meaning the government’s slow march to electoral doom seems set to continue.

TY, Ben! Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen secured a big win over his Labour competitor in the Tories’ best result of the elections slate so far, despite a sizable drop on his vote share in 2021. Houchen picked up 53.6 percent of the vote, compared to Labour challenger Chris McEwan’s 41.3 percent.

Doing the triumphant bit: “The Labour Party threw absolutely everything at this election,” a brave-faced Rishi Sunak said as he turned up in Tees Valley with Houchen. Sans a blue rosette, the Tees mayor didn’t mention the PM in his victory speech earlier on — though did praise him in interviews after it.

Coup d’nah! One figure in the rebel camp conceded to my Playbook colleague Sam Blewett that their chances of toppling Sunak are over, conceding: “It looks like Sunak will lead us into the election.” They said Houchen’s victory “has sucked the necessary movement out of” any rebellion. Sam had more on the factions lining up — but not necessarily striking — against Sunak in a piece this morning.

Also cheering up the PM: For all the attention the party has received in recent months, Reform U.K. is yet to win a single council seat, despite their decent-ish showing in the Blackpool South by-election.

Plus: The Tories scraping second above Reform in the Blackpool South by-election was given as another reason the letters of no confidence won’t be piling up in 1922 Committee Chair Graham Brady’s inbox — even arch-rebel MP Andrea Jenkyns was conceding this point on Radio 4 this morning.

CBA? A spokesperson for the rebel Conservative Britain Alliance announced “we’re off to the pub” in the wake of the locals. Feels like this is for commiseration rather than celebrations pints. It’s still unclear who’s funding the David Frost-linked outfit. Maybe the bartender can tell us who’s picking up the tab?

Stop reading now, Rishi: That’s just about where the good news for Sunak ends. It only got worse as results trickled out today.

The really big one: Labour figures were delighted with a win in the York and North Yorkshire mayoral race, a new mayoralty which covers … Sunak’s own ultra-safe constituency of Richmond. “Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is now winning in Rishi Sunak’s backyard,” a Labour spokesperson said.

Which is a fairly jaw-dropping result as … the new mayoralty mostly encompasses a bunch of relatively safe Tory constituencies.

And elsewhere: Labour won the East Midlands mayoralty, which is stuffed full of battleground seats. The Tories continued to pile up losses as results in council contests trickled in. As of shortly before Playbook PM went to inboxes, the state of play in the councils as per the BBC was: Tories down 287 seats … Labour up 121 … Lib Dems up 40 … Greens up 36 … independents up 77 … Workers Party GB up 4 … and Reform U.K. on a big fat zero. More than a thousand seats are still to declare.

Another striking one: About an hour ago Labour gained Nuneaton Council directly from the Conservatives — a rare direct transfer of power in these elections.

LEADERS SAYING THINGS: Appearing in Blackpool this morning with victorious by-election candidate Chris Webb, Keir Starmer said a message “has been sent directly to the prime minister” … While that prime minister, on a visit in Yorkshire at noon, bigged up the Tories’ narrow hold in Harlow council, one of its few bright notes from the overnight results.

COULD THE NARRATIVE SHIFT? Surprise Tory wins in the West Midlands and London — yep, really — mayoral races could shift how the electoral results are analyzed by Sunday — despite the grim overall outlook for the Conservatives. Those results are due tomorrow.

In the West Mids: BBC’s West Midlands pol ed Rob Mayor — nominative determinism of the day? — hears that Labour people believe they are on course to lose to incumbent Andy Street in the mayoral race. Mayor’s Labour “source” found a way to pre-emptively blame it on Hamas, though that quote was swiftly slammed as racist by a Labour spokesperson.

If Street does hang on … It would, like the Tees Valley result, be a huge win for the Tories, given the resources Labour have piled into the contest. Starmer himself kicked off the locals campaign with a visit to Dudley in Street’s turf. But it’s worth pointing out too that, like Houchen, Street has firmly campaigned on his own record and tried to emphasize his independence from the unpopular government.

As for London: Westminster is rife with rumors that Sadiq Khan might be at risk of actually losing to Tory challenger Susan Hall. Two different members of Khan’s team said they reckon it’s going to be close, despite his 22-point YouGov opinion poll lead, while an aide to the mayor pointed out to my colleague Esther Webber that the polls were way out in London last time. Expect results in both of these contests by tomorrow afternoon.

Sounding confident: A member of Hall’s team tells Esther they think Hall has won, based on turnout and conversations with voters. But not a vote has been counted yet — that kicks off tomorrow.

Hitting refresh: One thing to watch for an indication of the threat to Khan will be the turnout in inner London, which will drop here shortly.

And if Street wins and Susan Hall pulls off the shock of the year … Labour will have to grapple with the question of whether its position on Gaza is hurting electorally.

The Gaza factor: Labour had already lost control of the council in Oldham — where a number of councillors quit over its stance on Gaza — overnight. Across England, the party’s support appears to have declined in areas with a higher Muslim population, though for proper figures on that we’ll have to wait for the full results. The impact of pro-Palestine independent Akhmed Yakoob in the West Midlands is also being pointed to as a factor if Labour do lose the mayoralty there.

Having a good day: Labour’s Gaza woes appeared to also contribute toward a Green surge, with the party up by a few dozen seats across England so far. The Lib Dems are also pleased with their usual few-dozen gains, and are touting the fact that they got a Lib Dem councillor elected in Foreign Secretary David Cameron’s ward in West Oxfordshire. George Galloway’s Workers Party have managed to win a few seats too.

And not having such a good day: Despite a decent showing, independent Corbynite North Tyne Mayor Jamie Driscoll failed to defeat Kim McGuinness in the new North East contest.

SO, WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? Playbook PM asked a few experts with much bigger brains for a quick interim view as of Friday afternoon.

Luke Tryl, More in Common: “There are ways that the Conservatives can try and point to a silver lining … But whichever way you look at it they are a truly dire set of results which would almost always ordinarily point to a government on its way out of office. There are some warning signs for Labour too … But the truth is when it comes to the general election, many of these left wing protest votes will stack up in safe Labour constituencies, narrowing the Labour majority in these seats rather than threatening them.”

Emma Levin, Savanta associate director: “The results so far confirm what we’ve been seeing in national polls for a while — the Conservatives are immensely unpopular and Labour are well on their way to a majority in a general election. Sunak and his advisors will cling onto victories such as holding Tees Valley but the reality is that if the swing against Houchen was replicated in a general election, all Tory MPs in the area would lose.”

Tom Lubbock, JL Partners co-founder: “The results we have seen so far plausibly fit in a world where by Christmas Keir Starmer is a Labour prime minister with a huge majority, but also one in which the general election contest is much tighter, but Labour still get in … We did see the weaknesses on the left flank of the Labour Party and the right flank of the Conservatives on full show in Labour’s underperformance in heavily Muslim areas and the Conservatives’ dire result in Blackpool South — how each of those weaknesses improves or is exploited in the next few months will go a long way to determining how the country is governed at Westminster.”

TLDR? The Tories look goosed.

RESULTS IN FULL

Here’s a full list of the results so far as of 5 p.m. compiled by Noah Keate. Click through to see detailed BBC results for each area.

Councils changing hands …

LABOUR GAIN FROM NOC: Hartlepool … Thurrock … Hyndburn … Milton Keynes.

LABOUR GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE: Rushmoor … Redditch … Adur … Nuneaton & Bedworth.

LABOUR LOSS TO NOC: Oldham … Kirklees.

CONSERVATIVE LOSS TO NOC: North East Lincolnshire … Basildon.

INDEPENDENT GAIN FROM NOC: Castle Point.

Councils that haven’t changed hands:

CONSERVATIVE HOLD: Broxbourne … Fareham … Harlow … Walsall … Solihull.

LABOUR HOLD: Sunderland … South Tyneside … Chorley … Newcastle upon Tyne … Ipswich … Reading … Exeter … Wigan … Gateshead … Sefton … Plymouth … Tameside … Lincoln … Southampton … Swindon … Blackburn with Darwen … Wakefield … Barnsley … Preston … Knowsley … Worthing … Halton … Rochdale … Calderdale … Wolverhampton … Manchester … Leeds … Rossendale … Coventry … Cambridge … Crawley.

LIB DEM HOLD: Eastleigh … Hull … Gosport … Winchester … Watford … Three Rivers.

NOC, NO CHANGE: Rochford … Stockport … Peterborough … Colchester … Hart … Bolton … Portsmouth … West Oxfordshire … Welwyn Hatfield … Basingstoke & Deane … Preston … Burnley … Sheffield … Norwich … Pendle … Hastings … Brentwood … North Hertfordshire.

Others:

BY-ELECTION: Labour gain Blackpool South.

POLICE AND CRIME COMMISSIONERS … Labour gain Cumbria … Tories hold Lincolnshire … Labour gain Avon and Somerset … Labour hold Gwent … Plaid Cymru hold Dyfed Powys … Labour hold North Wales … Labour hold South Wales … Tories hold Suffolk … Tories hold Cambridgeshire … Labour gain Bedfordshire … Tories hold Devon and Cornwall … Tories hold Humberside … Tories hold Leicestershire … Labour gain Cleveland … Tories hold West Mercia … Labour gain Norfolk … Labour hold Durham.

MAYORALTIES: Tories hold the Tees Valley … Labour win the North East … Labour win York and North Yorkshire … Labour win the East Midlands.

ELECTION BIGGIES STILL TO COME: Labour briefings indicate they expect to lose to Andy Street in the West Midlands mayoralty, declaration expected tomorrow afternoon … The London Mayoral race result should come at some point in the early afternoon tomorrow … and there’s interesting council results still due tonight in Bristol (watch the Greens) and Elmbridge (watch the Lib Dems), plus Stevenage (watch for the impact of Labour’s “Stevenage woman” target voter.)

**Power Play will be at the 27th Annual Milken Global Conference in Los Angeles, from May 5-8. POLITICO’s highly influential podcast, hosted by Anne McElvoy, will bring conversations with power players in politics, finance, tech philanthropy and beyond to your ears, as they grapple with the world’s most pressing and complex challenges. Listen and follow Power Play here.**

DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

CLIMATE RULING: The government’s plans for hitting climate goals have been ruled unlawful in the High Court for the second time. The judgment, published this morning, upheld four of the five legal challenges brought by several campaign groups on the government’s Carbon Budget Delivery Plan. DESNZ argues the case was “largely about process”. More here from POLITICO’s senior energy correspondent Charlie Cooper.

RWANDA NONSENSE: POLITICO’s Ireland correspondent Shawn Pogatchnik writes that, during his first visit to Northern Ireland as Ireland’s new Taoiseach, Simon Harris dismissed the Telegraph’s splash that the U.K. could allow Ireland to participate in its Rwanda deportation scheme.

You’re having a laugh: “That’s more satire than news,” Harris told a joint press conference alongside the leaders of Northern Ireland’s cross-community government at Stormont Castle.

Home front: Harris won sympathy from his hosts over a wave of far-right protests outside Irish government leaders’ homes, including his own, last night, when he was away but his wife was trying to put their two young children to bed. “People’s families and people’s homes should be out of bounds,” he said. Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill agreed there shouldn’t be “any tolerance” for protests outside politicians’ homes.

Bored of reading about elections? Take a break and have a gander at Boris Johnson’s latest Mail column, which is about the demise of his family duckling. RIP.

SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS

SEIZING THE MEANS: Congrats to new Stockport Labour councillor … Karl Peter Marx Wardlaw. How did he pass LOTO vetting?

GETTING A LOT OF FLAK: A remarkably grim Times cartoon on the SNP which Playbook isn’t linking to.

AROUND THE WORLD

IN GERMANY: The German government criticized Russian intelligence services for hacking email accounts belonging to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party last year — my POLITICO colleagues have more.

IN AMERICA: Former U.S. President Donald Trump is said to be considering increasing his demand for military spending by NATO members from 2 percent to 3 percent as the price of American commitment to the bloc if he returns to the White House — the Times has the story.

IN NIGER: U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed Russian security forces had been deployed to Airbase 101, the same airbase as American troops use in Niger’s capital Niamey — the Guardian has a writeup.

BLAST OFF: China launched an uncrewed rocket aiming to collect samples from the far side of the moon in what is being billed as a world first — the BBC has the rocket launch video.

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TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) leads on the local election results including an interview with Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting at 5.30 p.m. … as do BBC News at Six … and Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) which has interviews with Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride, Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Reform UK Leader Richard Tice.

Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 7 p.m.): Tory peer Gavin Barwell (5.05 p.m.) … Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho (5.20 p.m.) … Yvette Cooper (6.05 p.m.).

BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Science Minister Andrew Griffith … Yvette Cooper … Tory peer Paul Goodman … Political scientist John Curtice … perennial election candidate Count Binface.

News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Tory MP Tobias Ellwood (5.45 p.m.) … former Justice Secretary David Gauke (6.30 p.m.).

Drive with Cathy Newman (Times Radio, 5 p.m.): Deputy Foreign Secretary Andrew Mitchell (5.05 p.m.) … Shadow Lords Leader Angela Smith and Tory peer James Bethell (both 5.35 p.m.) … Yvette Cooper (5.50 p.m.) … former Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg (6.05 p.m.) … Green Co-Leader Carla Denyer (6.15 p.m.) … More in Common’s Luke Tryl (6.35 p.m.) … Onward’s Sebastian Payne and the New Economics Foundation’s Hannah Peaker (both 6.45 p.m.).

Ed Vaizey (Times Radio, 7 p.m.): Deputy Tory Chair Nickie Aiken … Labour MP Rupa Huq … London School of Economics academic Tony Travers.

Any Questions (Radio 4, 8 p.m.): Transport Minister Anthony Browne … Shadow Commons Leader Lucy Powell … former SNP Westminster Leader Ian Blackford … Luke Tryl.

REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Guardian’s Jessica Elgot and the Sun’s Jack Elsom.

YOUR WEEKEND IN POLITICS

RESULTS, RESULTS, RESULTS: The last batch of local, mayoral and police crime commissioner results will trickle out over Saturday and Sunday. Hour-by-hour guide here.

ANY MORE FOR ANY MORE? If any SNP figures fancy causing chaos and ruining John Swinney’s Monday coronation, they’ve got the weekend to get themselves on the leadership ballot by collecting 100 signatures across 20 local branches. You know you want to.

WEEKEND MEDIA ROUND

Week in Westminster (Radio 4, 11 a.m. Saturday): The FT’s George Parker … the Times’ Iain Martin … the Observer’s Sonia Sodha.

Ayesha Hazarika with Times Radio Drive (Times Radio, 4 p.m. Saturday): Former YouGov President Peter Kellner (4.05 p.m.) … Lib Dem MP Munira Wilson (4.40 p.m.) … Labour Muslim Network Chair Ali Milani (5.20 p.m.) … Carla Denyer (5.30 p.m.) … POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy, broadcaster Steve Richards and Sky’s Jon Craig (from 6 p.m.).

Trevor Phillips on Sunday (Sky News, 8.30 a.m. Sunday): Transport Secretary Mark Harper … Labour’s National Campaign Coordinator Pat McFadden … election analyst Michael Thrasher … former Downing Street Director of Coms Guto Harri … former FT Editor Lionel Barber … the FT’s Miranda Green.

Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg (BBC One, 9 a.m. Sunday): Mark Harper … Pat McFadden … Rwandan government spokesperson Yolande Makolo.

The Camilla Tominey Show (GB News, 9.30 a.m. Sunday): Mark Harper … former Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers … Northern Ireland Affairs Committee Chair Robert Buckland.

Lewis Goodall (LBC, 10 a.m. Sunday): Mark Harper … Pat McFadden … new Blackpool South MP Chris Webb.

Sunday Morning with Kate McCann and Adam Boulton (Times Radio, 10 a.m. Sunday): Mark Harper … Pat McFadden … Richard Tice … Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar … former U.S. National Security Adviser H. R. McMaster.

Carole Walker with Times Radio Drive (Times Radio, 4 p.m. Sunday): Luke Tryl (4.05 p.m.) … Tory MP Richard Graham, Labour MP Barry Gardiner, Lib Dem MP Sarah Olney and The House’s Sienna Rodgers (from 5 p.m.).

Westminster Hour (Radio 4, 10 p.m. on Sunday): Former Minister for London Paul Scully … Shadow Investment Minister Rushanara Ali … J.L. Partners’ Scarlett Maguire … George Parker.

**Berlin Playbook, the newest addition to POLITICO’s Playbook family, launched! Täglich informieren wir Sie darüber, was am vor Ihnen liegenden Arbeitstag wirklich zählt. Die aktuellsten Ereignisse aus Kanzleramt, Bundestag und den politischen Zentren der Welt. Mit nur einem Klick anmelden.**

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

NEW GIG: The BBC have hired Erron Gordon — formerly of ITV’s Good Morning Britain, TalkTV at launch and most recently GB News — as head of department for London, overseeing Broadcasting House’s news studios. Here’s the tweet.

MOVING ON: Oscar Bicket — long serving Head of Digital at Policy Exchange — is moving on after almost five years at the think tank. He’s hosting leaving drinks this evening.

ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: Happier days for the Conservatives in 1979, as Margaret Thatcher secured a thumping win over James Callaghan in a general election that ushered in almost two decades of Tory rule.

WRITING SUNDAY CRUNCH: Me! Andrew McDonald.

WRITING PLAYBOOK MONDAY MORNING: Sam Blewett.

MEA CULPA: This morning’s Playbook missed off the word “shadow,” accidentally promoting Labour’s Alison McGovern to the government. Apologies.

THANKS TO: My editor Rosa Prince, reporters Noah Keate, and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.