Cannes 2023: Could Oscars be next for ‘Anatomy of a Fall,’ ‘Zone of Interest,’ ‘Fallen Leaves’ … ?

The 76th edition of the Cannes Film Festival came to a close on Saturday, May 27 after two weeks of films, celebrities, parties and interviews in the small city on the French Riviera. Now that the prizes have been given out, we can start looking at what could be top contenders for next year’s Oscars. Let’s analyze the results from this year’s festival and see this history that each category has when it comes to the Academy Awards.

Over the past several years the festival has been a springboard for major players in the Oscar derby. We’ve really seen it be an influence in the International Feature category where in-competition films have been nominated a regular basis. Recent Cannes films that ended up being top awards contenders in above the line categories include “Triangle of Sadness,” “Drive My Car,” “Parasite,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” and “BlacKkKlansman.” This year’s jury was headed by Swedish filmmaker Ruben Östlund. He’s one of the few directors to win the festival’s top prize, the Palme d’Or, twice. He did it in 2017 with “The Square” and last year with “Triangle of Sadness.” Others on the jury included Oscar winner Brie Larson, actor Paul Dano, past Palme winner Julia Ducournau and Argentinian director Damián Szifrón.

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This year, the Palme d’Or went to French filmmaker Justine Triet’s “Anatomy of a Fall,” which will be distributed by Neon. This was only Triet’s second appearance at the festival after screening in 2019 for the first time with “Sybil.” She becomes the third woman to claim the Palme after Jane Campion for “The Piano” in 1993 and Julia Ducournau for “Titane” in 2021. The legal thriller stars Sandra Hüller as a novelist that is being prosecuted for the suspicious murder of her husband. Since the honor was established in 1955, 41 winners of this prize have amassed 138 Academy Award nominations. Seventeen of these have claimed a combined 32 Oscars.

Four years ago, “Parasite” won both the Palme and Best Picture Oscar, making it the first film to do so since “Marty” pulled off this double play in 1955. That character study was the first of the 17 Palme d’Or champs to reap a Best Picture bid, followed by “Friendly Persuasion” (1957), “M*A*S*H” (1970), “The Conversation” (1974), “Taxi Driver” (1976), “Apocalypse Now” (1979), “All That Jazz” (1979), “Missing” (1982), “The Mission” (1986), “The Piano” (1993), “Pulp Fiction” (1994), “Secrets and Lies” (1996), “The Pianist” (2002), “The Tree of Life” (2011), “Amour” (2012), “Parasite” (2019) and “Triangle of Sadness” (2022).

If France were to choose this film as their submission for Best International Feature, it could be a big player in that race. Six Palme d’Or champs have gone on to win this Oscar: “Black Orpheus” from France (1959), “A Man and a Woman” from France (1966), “The Tin Drum” from West Germany (1979), “Pelle the Conqueror” from Denmark (1988), “Amour” from Austria (2012) and “Parasite” from South Korea (2019). Ten other Palme winners were nominated: “Keeper of Promises” from Brazil (1962), “The Umbrellas of Cherbourg” from France (1964), “Kagemusha: The Shadow Warrior” from Japan (1980), “Man of Iron” from Poland (1981), “When Father Was Away on Business” from Yugoslavia (1985), “Farewell My Concubine” from Hong Kong (1993), “The Class” from France (2008), “The White Ribbon” from Germany (2009), “The Square” from Sweden (2017) and “Shoplifters” from Japan (2018).

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“The Zone of Interest,” the widely praised Holocaust drama from British director Jonathan Glazer received the runner-up prize, the Grand Prix. Sixteen Grand Prix winners have earned 30 total Oscar nominations, with six films scoring eight wins. Five of the six — “Investigation of a Citizen Above Suspicion” from Italy (1970); “Cinema Paradiso” from Italy (1989); “Burnt by the Sun” from Russia (1994); “Life is Beautiful” from Italy (1998); and “Son of Saul” from Hungary (2015) — won Best International Film (“Life is Beautiful” also won Best Actor and Best Original Dramatic Score). The 2018 winner of the Grand Prix, “BlacKkKlansman,” won Best Adapted Screenplay and one of last year’s winners (“Close” by Lukas Dhont) was nominated for Best International Feature.

Celebrated Finnish filmmaker Aki Kaurismäki claimed the Jury Prize for his romantic-comedy, “Fallen Leaves.” The films that have won here don’t correlate as much to the Oscars, but 14 films that have won the Jury Prize have amassed 39 Oscar nominations and nine wins. Among these victories were one for Best Picture (“All About Eve,” which played at Cannes in 1951, the year after its Oscar romp) and two for Best International Film (“Mon Oncle” in 1958 from France and “Z” in 1969 from Algeria). One of the winners from last year (“EO” by Jerzy Skolimowski) got nominated in the International Feautre category. The last time Finland was nominated in the category, it was for Kaurismäki’s Grand Prix winner, “The Man Without a Past.”

Vietnamese-French director Tràn Anh Hùng claimed this year’s prize for Best Director for “The Pot-Au-Feu.” It stars Juliette Binoche and Benoît Magimel as a cook who embarks on a romantic affair with the gourmet she works for. The Oscar track record for this award is not great. Only seven of the helmers who prevailed here went on to contend at the Oscars: Robert Altman for “The Player” (1992); Joel Coen for “Fargo” (1996); David Lynch for “Mulholland Drive” (2001); Alejandro González Iñárritu for “Babel” (2006); Julian Schnabel for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (2007); Bennett Miller for “Foxcatcher” (2014); and Pawel Pawlikowski for “Cold War” (2018). Both “Fargo” and “Babel” also earned Best Picture bids.

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Kōji Yakusho won the Best Actor prize for his performance in the Wim Wenders film, “Perfect Days.” He plays a cleaner of public toilets that finds solace in life’s everyday pleasures. Yakusho has been working in the industry for over 40 years and among his credits is the lead role in Shohei Imamura’s 1997 Palme d’Or winner, “The Eel.” Sixteen winners of the Best Actor award at Cannes have been nominated by the academy (including the 2019 champ, Antonio Banderas for “Pain and Glory”). Five have taken home the Oscar: Ray Milland for “The Lost Weekend” (1945); Jon Voight for “Coming Home” (1978); William Hurt for “Kiss of the Spider Woman” (1985); Christoph Waltz for “Inglorious Basterds” (2009, Oscar won in the supporting race); and Jean Dujardin for “The Artist” (2011).

Best Actress went to Turkish actress, Merve Dizdar, for Nuri Bilge Ceylan’s “About Dry Grasses.” She plays a rural schoolteacher hoping to move to Istanbul. Twenty past Cannes champs for Best Actress received nominations from the academy, and four won: Simone Signoret for “Room at the Top” (1959); Sophia Loren for “Two Women” (1961); Sally Field for “Norma Rae” (1979); and Holly Hunter for “The Piano” (1993).

The award for Best Screenplay went to Yuji Sakamoto for his script to the latest from Hirozkazu Kore-eda, “Monster.” The movie centers on a mother who notices strange behavior in her young son and decides to confront his teacher about it. Two years ago, the winner in this category, “Drive My Car,” became the first screenplay winner to earn a Best Picture Oscar nomination as well as noms for Director (Ryusuke Hamaguchi), Adapted Screenplay and International Feature, winning the last of those. Four other screenplay winners at Cannes have gone on to claim the International Feature Oscar: “Mephisto” from Hungary (1981), “No Man’s Land” from Bosnia and Herzegovina (2001), “The Barbarian Invasions” from Canada (2003; also nominated for Original Screenplay) and “The Salesman” from Iran (2016). Two others were nominated: “Footnote” from Israel (2011) and “Leviathan” from Russia (2014).

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