Final Tony Awards Predictions 2024: Eddie Redmayne, Sarah Paulson, Leslie Odom Jr and Daniel Radcliffe Among Likely Nominees

The highest-stakes race at the Tony Awards this year and every year is the competition for Best Musical, widely recognized as the only theater trophy to significantly move the needle at the box office. With 15 new musicals vying for a nomination this year, that race is also one of the hardest to call. Shaina Taub’s much-admired “Suffs” and Alicia Keys’ well-liked “Hell’s Kitchen” are the two that would seem to have their nominations locked in; nominators also seem likely to recognize the ambitious “Days of Wine and Roses” and the elegantly conceived adaptation of “The Outsiders.”

Given the number of eligible shows, there will be at least five nominees in this category (and possibly six) — which contributes to the feeling that anything could happen, but the big swings taken by the love-it-or-hate-it “Lempicka” seem likely to score a nom, as does the genre-defying dance-ical “Illinoise.” Even so, there are plenty of wild cards in the mix that also have a shot at recognition, including “Water for Elephants,” “The Notebook,” and “Here Lies Love.”

Other contenders: “Back to the Future: The Musical,” “The Great Gatsby,” “Harmony,” “The Heart of Rock and Roll,” “How to Dance in Ohio,” “Here Lies Love,” “Once Upon a One More Time,” “The Notebook” and “Water for Elephants

Critics and audiences alike are wild about David Adjmi’s “Stereophonic,” so look for that one on the list for best play, alongside two favorites from the fall, Jocelyn Bioh’s “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding” and Joshua Harmon’s “Prayer for the French Republic.” Filling out the two remaining spots in a five-horse race, bet on two recent openers with starry casts, Amy Herzog’s “Mary Jane” and Paula Vogel’s “Mother Play.”

Other contenders: “The Cottage,” “Grey House,” “I Need That,” “Patriots” and “The Shark is Broken,”

With a relatively focused slate of six eligible contenders, the competition for Best Revival of the Musical will be led by the widely beloved “Merrily We Roll Along,” destined to be the frontrunner for the trophy; the more divisive “Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club” will also land a nom for its bold choices. In the remaining two spots of a four-show category, look for the well-liked “Gutenberg!” and “The Wiz,” with “Tommy” as a wild card.

Other contenders: “Monty Python’s Spamalot” and “The Who’s Tommy”

The decision to classify the buzzy play “Appropriate” as a revival makes this competition a tough one. “Appropriate” will find itself in the race with the much-lauded fall revival “Purlie Victorious”; those two feel like the frontrunners here. In a category that has three or four shows in it, “An Enemy of the People” seems poised to get a nod, but starry stagings of “Uncle Vanya” and “Doubt” could well surprise.

Other contenders: “Doubt”

The field is bigger for best actor in a musical, but Jonathan Groff (“Merrily We Roll Along”) looks like a lock, as does Brian D’Arcy James (“Days of Wine and Roses”). The performance that Eddie Redmayne is giving in “Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club”) isn’t universally beloved, but don’t be surprised if a nod also goes to him. Outside of that, the strongest contenders look to be a beloved Broadway veteran Chip Zien (“Harmony”), and newcomer Ali Louis Bourzgui (“Tommy”) — but don’t count out fan fave Jeremy Jordan (“The Great Gatsby”) or Andrew Rannells (“Gutenberg!”)

Other contenders: Corey Cott (“The Heart of Rock and Roll”); Josh Gad (“Gutenberg! The Musical!”); Brody Grant (“The Outsiders”); Justin Guarini (“Once Upon a One More Time”); Grant Gustin (“Water for Elephant”); Dorian Harewood (“The Notebook”); James Monroe Iglehart (“Monty Python’s Spamalot”); Jeremy Jordan (“The Great Gatsby”); Taran Killam (“Monty Python’s Spamalot”); Casey Likes (“Back to the Future: The Musical”); Andrew Rannells (“Gutenberg! The Musical!”)

Among plays, the field for best actor is a fairly narrow one. Leslie Odom Jr. is a sure thing for “Purlie Victorious,” as is Jeremy Strong for “An Enemy of the People.” Joining them is likely Steve Carell for “Uncle Vanya” and Liev Schreiber for “Doubt.” The wild cards: William Jackson Harper gave a standout performance in “Vanya” and Michael Stuhlbarg in “Patriots.”

Other contenders: Danny DeVito (“I Need That”); William Jackson Harper (“Uncle Vanya”); Eric McCormack (“The Cottage”); Paul Sparks (“Grey House”)

For lead actress in a musical, Kelli O’Hara is a near-certainty for her characteristically accomplished performance in “Days of Wine and Roses,” and “Hell’s Kitchen” breakout Maleah Joi Moon seems likely to join her in the category. “Suffs” creator-star Shaina Taub and “Lempicka” headliner Eden Espinosa have also turned heads, with Maryann Plunkett’s affecting turn in “The Notebook” and Gayle Rankin’s bold, polarizing performance in “Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club” vying for a spot as well.

Other contenders: Briga Heelan (“Once Upon a One More Time”); Arielle Jacobs (“Here Lives Love”); McKenzie Kurtz (“The Heart of Rock and Roll”); Nichelle Lewis (“The Wiz”); Isabelle McCalla (“Water for Elephants”); Eva Nobiezada (“The Great Gatsby”); Maryann Plunkett (“The Notebook”)

The lead actress in a play competition is going to be starry: Sarah Paulson (“Appropriate”), Rachel McAdams (“Mary Jane”) and Jessica Lange (“Mother Play”) are all giving critically praised performances, and all three look poised to nab nominations. Rounding out the category could well be Betsy Aidem for her performance in fall fave “Prayer for the French Republic,” although Amy Ryan (“Doubt”) or Anika Noni Rose (“Uncle Vanya”) have also attracted notice.

Other contenders: Laura Bell Bundy (“The Cottage”); Tatiana Maslany (“Grey House”); Laurie Metcalf (“Grey House”); Amy Ryan (“Doubt”)

In the running for featured actor in a musical, you’re certain to see Daniel Radcliffe for “Merrily We Roll Along” and for Steven Skybell from “Cabaret,” both turning in widely admired performances. There’s also Conrad Ricamora, still lingering in people’s memories for his performance in the now-closed “Here Lies Love.” Beyond that, look out for Brandon Victor Dixon in “Hell’s Kitchen,” Paul Alexander Nolan in “Water for Elephants,” or maybe Joshua Boone or one of the other standouts from the male-dominated cast of “The Outsiders.”

Other contenders: George Abud (“Lempicka”); John Ambrosino (“The Who’s Tommy”); Roger Bart (“Back to the Future: The Musical”); Sean Bell (“Harmony”); Ato Blankson-Wood (“Cabaret”); Wayne Brady (“The Wiz”); Joshua Boone (“The Outsiders”); John Cardoza (“The Notebook”); Hugh Coles (“Back to the Future: The Musical”); Brent Comer (“The Outsiders”); Bobby Conte (“The Who’s Tommy”); Ben Cook (“Illinoise”); John Dossett (“The Heart of Rock and Roll”); Gregg Edelman (“Water for Elephants”); Christopher Fitzgerald (“Monty Python’s Spamalot”); Kyle Ramar Freeman (“The Wiz”); Sky Lakota-Lynch (“The Outsiders”); Jose Llana (“Here Lies Love”); Danny Kornfield (“Harmony”); Brandt Martinez (“Illinoise”); Liam Pearce (“How to Dance in Ohio”); Phillip Johnson Richardson (“The Wiz”); Noah J. Ricketts (“The Great Gatsby”); Reg Rogers (“Merrily We Roll Along”); Blake Roman (“Harmony”); Caesar Samayoa (“How to Dance in Ohio”); Andrew Samonsky (“Lempicka”); Jason Schmidt (“The Outsiders”); Ethan Slater (“Monty Python’s Spamalot”); Jimmy Smagula (“Monty Python’s Spamalot”); Michael Urie (“Monty Python’s Spamalot”); Ryan Vazquez (“The Notebook”); Nik Walker (“Monty Pyton’s Spamalot”); Avery Wilson (“The Wiz”);

For featured actor in a play, Corey Stoll has been winning raves in “Appropriate” since the production opened late last year; he’ll likely find himself in competition with Will Keen for that actor’s tightly controlled performance at Putin in “Patriots.” The entire male cast of “Stereophonic” is also eligible in this category; of all of them, Eli Gelb and Will Brill seem the most likely to stand out to nominators. With Michael Imperioli looking ready to get a nod for his much-admired performance in “An Enemy of the People,” fellow contenders Jim Parsons (“Mother Play”) and Alfred Molina (“Uncle Vanya”) might also find themselves in the mix.

Other contenders: Ari Brand (“Prayer for the French Republic”); Alex Brightman (“The Shark is Broken”); Will Brill (“Stereophonic”); Andrew R. Butler (“Stereophonic”); Colin Donnell (“The Shark is Broken”); Caleb Eberhardt (“An Enemy of the People”); Anthony Edwards (“Prayer for the French Republic”); Michael Esper (“Appropriate”); Billy Eugene Jones (“Purlie Victorious”); Alex Moffat (“The Cottage”); Nael Nacer (“Prayer for the French Republic”); Jim Parsons (“Mother Play”); Tom Pecinka (“Stereophonic”); Jay O. Sanders (“Purlie Victorious”); Aria Shahghasemi (“Prayer for the French Republic”); Ian Shaw (“The Shark is Broken”); Chris Stack (“Stereophonic”); Luke Thallon (“Patriots”); Ray Anthony Thomas (“I Need That”)

There’s a real overflow of viable contenders for featured actress in a musical. Lindsay Mendez will certainly score a nod for “Merrily We Roll Along,” as will Bebe Neuwirth, whose performance in “Cabaret” was one of the few elements of the show that didn’t divide the critics. Strong competition abounds, most notably from Shoshanna Bean and Kecia Lewis in “Hell’s Kitchen,” Nikki M. James and Jenn Colella in “Suffs,” and Leslie Kritzer in “Spamalot.” Any one of them seems poised to claim a place in the category.

Other contenders: Ysenia Ayala (“Illinoise”); Shoshana Bean (“Hell’s Kitchen”); Julie Benko (“Harmony”); Melody A. Betts (“The Wiz”); Krystal Joy Brown (“Merrily We Roll Along”); Sierra Boggess (“Harmony”); Melody Butiu (“Here Lies Love”); Katie Rose Clarke (“Merrilly We Roll Along”); Jenn Coelella (“Suffs”); Deborah Cox (“The Wiz”); Hannah Cruz (“Suffs”); Gaby Diaz (“Illionoise”); Sara Gettelfinger (“Water for Elephants”); Amber Iman (“Lempicka”); Tamika Lawrence (“The Heart of Rock and Roll”); Alison Luff (“The Who’s Tommy”); Madison Kopec (“How to Dance in Ohio”); Beth Leavel (“Lempicka”); Grace McLean (“Suffs”); Samantha Pauly (“The Great Gatsby”); Imani Russell (“How to Dance in Ohio”); Lea Salonga (“Here Lies Love”); Emily Skinner (“Suffs”); Jennifer Simard (“Once Upon a One More Time”); Jordan Tyson (“The Notebook”); Joy Woods (“The Notebook”)

In the category for featured actress in a play, you can count on Kara Young to score a spot for her uproarious performance in “Purlie Victorious.” From “Stereophonic,” Sarah Pidgeon’s strong character arc looks likely to land her a nom, while Celia Kenan-Bolger’s sturdy performance in “Mother Play” will probably get some love, too. Seemingly most likely to join them in the category are Francis Benhamou for “Prayer for the French Republic” and Quincy Tyler Bernstine for “Doubt.”

Other contenders: Brittany Adebumola (“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”); Juliana Canfield (“Stereophonic”); Vanessa Bell Calloway (“Purlie Victorious”); Lilli Cooper (“The Cottage”); Lucy DeVito (“I Need That”); Elle Fanning (“Appropriate”); Natalie Gold (“Appropriate”); Jayne Houdyshell (“Uncle Vanya”); Zoe Kazan (“Doubt”); Lakisha May (“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”); Nana Mensah (“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”); Victoria Pedretti (“An Enemy of the People”); Alison Pill (“Uncle Vanya”); Molly Ranson (“Prayer for the French Republic”); Nancy Robinette (“Prayer for the French Republic”); Anika Noni Rose (“Uncle Vanya”); Heather Alicia Simms (“Purlie Victorious”); Dana Steingold (“The Cottage”); Dominique Thorne (“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”); Brenda Wehle (“Mary Jane”); Zenzi Williams (“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”)

“Suffs” will score a nod for its cleverly streamlined look at the fight for women’s right to vote, and “Hell’s Kitchen” for tracing the appealing story of its young protagonist through Alicia Keys’ music. Beyond that, the field seems wide open: The most likely of the potential nominees seem to be “Lempicka” for its historical scope, “The Outsiders” for its grit, “The Notebook” for its clever triple-cast conceit, “Days of Wine and Roses” for its unflinching portrait of a tough topic, or “Water for Elephants” for its wistful romance. With its karaoke take on Filipino history, heck, “Here Lies Love” could swoop in for a surprise. This one’s a big question mark.

Other contenders: “Back to the Future: Musical,” “The Great Gatsby,” “Harmony,” “The Heart of Rock and Roll,” “Here Lies Love,” “How to Dance in Ohio,” “Illinoise,” “The Notebook,” “Once Upon a One More Time” and “Water for Elephants”

For score, “Suffs” is a shoo-in with tunes that manage to be both eclectic and satisfyingly traditional. The serious complexity of “Days of Wine and Roses” also looks poised for a nom, as does the tuneful “Here Lies Love.” Beyond that, “The Notebook” and “Lempicka” (both from promising composers new to Broadway) stand a real chance at noms here, although the folk inflections of either “The Outsiders” or “Water for Elephants” could also attract admirers on the nominating committee. Plus, there’s always the wildcard possibility that nominators will reward Will Brill’s lauded score for “Stereophonic.”

Other contenders: “Back to the Future: The Musical,” “The Great Gatsby,” “Harmony,” “How to Dance in Ohio,” “The Outsiders,” “Patriots,” “Prayer for the French Republic,” “The Shark is Broken,” “Stereophonic” and “Water for Elephants”

Other contenders: Marc Bruni (“The Great Gatsby”); Sammi Cannold (“How to Dance in Ohio”); Warren Carlyle (“Harmony”); Rachel Chavkin (“Lempicka”); Michael Grief (“Hell’s Kitchen”); Gordon Greenberg (“The Heart of Rock and Roll”); Michael Grief and Schele Williams (“The Notebook”); Keone Madrid and Mari Madrid (“Once Upon a One More Time”); Des McAnuff (“The Who’s Tommy”); John Rando (“Back to the Future: The Musical”); Josh Rhodes (“Monty Python’s Spamalot”); Danya Taymor (“The Outsiders”); Alex Timbers (“Gutenberg! The Musical!”); Schele Williams (“The Wiz”)

Other contenders: Jason Alexander (“The Cottage”); David Cromer (“Prayer for the French Republic”); Scott Ellis (“Doubt”); Rupert Goold (“Patriots”); Anne Kauffman (“Mary Jane”); Tina Landau (“Mother Play”); Joe Mantello (“Grey House”); Guy Masterson (“The Shark is Broken”); Lila Neugebauer (“Uncle Vanya”); Moritz von Stuelpnagel (“I Need That”)

Other contenders: “Days of Wine and Roses,” “The Great Gatsby,” “Harmony,” “The Heart of Rock and Roll,” “Hell’s Kitchen,” “Here Lies Love,” “How to Dance in Ohio,” “Lempicka,” “Merrily We Roll Along,” “Monty Python’s Spamalot,” “Once Upon a One More Time,” “Suffs” and “Water for Elephants”