London Playbook PM: Forbes focus … and a postcard from Burnley

20 mins read

April 30, 2024 6:15 pm CET

Good afternoon from Burnley, where I’ve been hearing how the conflict in Gaza could affect the balance of power on the council this week, in the latest stop on the Playbook PM local elections tour. More on that below.

TUESDAY CHEAT SHEET

— Suspected SNP leadership hopeful Kate Forbes kept hacks guessing about whether she will stand.

— So did her possible rival for the crown John Swinney.

— Playbook PM went to Burnley where a Labour split over Gaza is feeding into the local elections.

— Keir Starmer issued a warning to shoplifters.

— The row between the U.K. and Ireland about Rwanda deportees showed no sign of resolution.

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TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

FORBES FOCUS: The SNP leadership contest still hasn’t properly started, despite plenty of ankle-showing. Both the big names in the frame kept their cards close to their chests in conversations with reporters through today — but both sound interested.

I got swole … I might be a soldier: Forbes told Connor Gillies of Sky News there is a “groundswell of support” behind her and she’s weighing up her options. She said it was vital to find a leader to unite the SNP so the squabbling bunch might be able to hold their own beers through the election, at least.

Which is a lot more … than hacks who doorstepped Forbes chirping up the stairs in Holyrood managed to get out of her this morning. See the clip here.

Groundswell latest: Scottish government minister Ivan McKee told Playbook PM Forbes was “seriously considering her options. I, and many others, think she’d be the best candidate. The party needs to look to the future.”

Which is a bit harsh on … former Deputy First Minister and SNP veteran John Swinney, who also very much isn’t ruling himself out. He told Sky the SNP must “take time to consider implications” of the leadership crisis when asked about warnings of a coronation. Clip here.

Signals, Swinney, signals! He later did a full huddle with hacks in which he said it would be wrong to ignore those calling on him to run.

One of those … is Westminster leader Stephen Flynn. “These are serious times and serious times require serious politicians,” he told Radio 4 this morning as he championed Swinney. Flynn admitted the SNP had been smacking itself in the face under Humza Yousaf — albeit in more understated terms. “The public were quite clearly in a slightly different place to where we were,” he said.

Oh and … asked about the SNP calling for a Westminster election when the Tories changed leader twice versus the SNP, er, not calling a Holyrood election when the SNP changed leader twice … he said it was all fine because Holyrood votes in new leaders which apparently serves as some kind of public mandate. Don’tcha just love politics?

She’s running. Oh wait: Sky thought it had another scoop when Deputy First Minister Shona Robinson appeared to throw her hat into the ring. But it was a mere broadcasting snafu. Clip here.

Something to look forward to: While the SNP stalls on its next moves, Labour is pushing ahead with its no-confidence motion in the government in Holyrood tomorrow afternoon. It will fail because the Greens will back the SNP now Yousaf has quit. But it should offer some interim entertainment at least.

Not happening: The Scottish Tories withdrew their no-confidence motion on Yousaf himself because his resignation was “job done.”

POSTCARD FROM BURNLEY

POTHOLES OR PALESTINE: A war in the Middle East no-one in Britain has the power to stop is on the ballot paper at local elections in Burnley this week. The race in the northern former mill town has become a litmus test for Labour on the importance of principles versus potholes — at least in some communities.

Burning around: “When you’re in a position of leadership, you’ve got to stand up for the values and principles you believe in,” says council leader Afrasiab Anwar, as he drives me around the Burnley streets in his black BMW.

The background: Anwar and 10 of his council colleagues quit Labour in November in protest at national leader Keir Starmer’s refusal to demand a cease-fire in Gaza. The death toll at the time from the Israeli bombardment — launched after the October 7 Hamas attack — stood at 10,000, according to the Hamas-run health authorities. It wasn’t until the number hit nearly 30,000 three months later that Starmer began using the word “cease-fire,” albeit with caveats.

Burning injustice: As we sail through his Bank Hall council ward in the afternoon rain, Anwar explains he couldn’t handle the restriction from the Labour high command on speaking out about innocent people being killed. “We just couldn’t stay silent,” he says, his muted car radio tuned to the BBC Asian Network.

The balance of power: The rupture split the governing Labour administration down the middle. The 11 remaining Labour councilors knew their colleagues had been facing pressure on Gaza from the South Asian communities in their wards. There was a row after Anwar claimed to speak for the full group in a call for Starmer to quit. But the mass resignation wasn’t expected. And a second shock came when the splitters formed a new coalition with the Lib Dems and Greens that took control of the council, allowing Anwar to sack his former Labour colleagues from their executive posts.

Learning to count: The new coalition has a two-seat majority, but that could change, with a third of seats up for grabs this week. The Greens are vulnerable since their former leader left the area, and Labour is fighting hard to take a seat or two from the new independent group, which could open the door to new, Labour-headed coalition talks. The contest is tough, in particular in the three independent wards with the highest concentration of South Asian residents.

Garbage or Gaza: Mark Townsend, leader of the Labour group on the council, says the Gaza issue does get raised on the doorstep in those three wards, while in the other 11 it’s still about “bread and butter issues.” But he says the hostile reaction to Labour in the Asian strongholds appears to be softening. “Whether that will be enough for us to get over the line in those wards, we’ll wait and see,” he says over a coffee in the town center.

Foreign scenario: “It is unprecedented that a local election has been fought, certainly for one section of the population, on an international issue,” says Dominic Collis, a senior reporter for the Burnley Express and its sister titles in the area. He predicts Labour will struggle to stop the Muslim population in Burnley returning their new independent councilors.

The message: “The bottom line is, this is a local election,” Townsend says. “It’s about local issues and trying to improve the lives of people day to day. We in Labour have as much concern about what’s going on in Gaza as they do. But we’ve got to be pragmatic in terms of what we can influence and what we can’t.”

Influence indeed: Anwar insists it was important to put pressure on the national Labour stance in the hope it might put pressure on the government stance … in the hope it might put pressure on Israel. He notes international influence has helped prevent an offensive on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, for example. We pass a Muslim man wearing a blue parka over a long tunic texting in a doorway.

Potholes *and* Palestine: But Anwar maintains the potholes and bins are his chief priorities. “We haven’t taken our eye off the ball in terms of that,” he argues, leaning forward in his red leather driving seat. “That’s why, when we resigned, it was important we were still part of the administration running the council.”

Weaving a narrative: The administration has good stories to tell too, with huge redevelopments in the historic Weavers’ Triangle via government “leveling up” cash — transforming derelict old mills into student accommodation for a new uni campus. The golden stone buildings gleam in the evening half-light — a world apart from their still-deserted, crumbling siblings down the road. There are other major developments too, which despite short term complaints about roadworks promise the area a brighter future.

Despite all that … Anwar’s decision to split the Labour group could cost him power, due to the fine balance on the council. He insists he won’t regret his decision if so, because it was about the principle, amid horror in Gaza. “This is not about personal gain, or me trying to make a career out of this,” he says. “This is about I how can’t sleep at night because of what’s going on.”

LABOUR LAND

WHAT KEIR STARMER WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Sounding tough on shoplifters, in a speech this afternoon with some big new numbers. The opposition boss is pledging to make assaults on shopworkers a separate criminal offense (which the government has agreed to do too, despite assaults on all people being an existing crime.) He also said Labour will put thousands more police on the beat and scrap the rule that ends up seeing little action on thefts below the value of £200.

The new bit … is the Labour number crunching, which found more than 248,000 shoplifting cases were closed in 2023 without a suspect being found, or where further action was considered not in the public interest. Starmer warned crims during his speech at the Usdaw union conference in Blackpool: “You might get away with this under a weak Tory government. But if Labour takes power, we won’t stand by while crime takes over our streets.”

What Starmer doesn’t want to talk about: Why he refuses to look at legal advice relating to Angela Rayner’s capital gains tax liabilities on the sale of her former council home. “If a member of my shadow cabinet tells me they’re off to have an operation I don’t ask to see the medical advice,” he told GMB this morning. Guido has the clip. The Tories said Starmer was “worried” Rayner had done something wrong or was “turning a blind eye to the scandal.” Rayner denies all the allegations.

Right back atcha: Labour is making noise about Conservative chair Richard Holden refusing to rule out taking further donations from controversial political cash machine Frank Hester. Clip here. Labour Chair Anneliese Dodds has written a letter about it all.

What else Starmer doesn’t want to talk about: Also on GMB, Starmer said Labour MP Rosie Duffield was correct to argue “only women have a cervix” in the wake of the Cass review into NHS treatment for trans kids. In 2021 Starmer had argued the opposite, but Labour has switched its position due to the report. The Welsh Tories are turning the screws on Welsh Labour over the issue though, as the government in Wales has said it’s reviewing what Cass concluded. More here.

What George Galloway wants Starmer to talk about: George Galloway, of course. LBC’s Henry Riley heard Labour MP Tahir Ali could jump ship to Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain, but Ali said it was b*llocks (to paraphrase.) Riley also hears former Labour and now independent MP Claudia Webbe could sign up with Galloway’s pro-Gaza movement. See his whole thread for more.

No rumors here: One person Galloway has signed up is former England cricketer Monty Panesar. The Tele’s Dominic Penna has a writeup. Galloway did a big press event outside parliament to trumpet his new candidates. See this thread from the Guardian’s Ben Quinn for deets and pics.

POULTER WAS TOO CHICKEN TO COME TO ME: Former Conservative MP Dan Poulter didn’t raise his now extremely-vocal concerns about government stewardship of the NHS with Health Secretary Victoria Atkins before he jumped ship to Labour, the Cabinet minister told Sky News this morning. Clip here.

DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

GRIM SCENES: Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer and London mayor Sadiq Khan were among those condemning a sword attack in Hainault this morning that left a 14-year-old boy dead and multiple people injured. This clip of Khan and Conservative opponent Susan Hall on machetes in London has been doing the rounds on political Twitter in the wake of the attack. The latest YouGov poll puts Khan at 47 percent of the vote in London and Hall at 25 percent.

LATEST IN WAR WITH THE IRISH: The 100 police the Irish government is sending to the Irish border have zero power to prevent asylum seekers in Northern Ireland fleeing deportation to Rwanda via the Republic, Downing Street made clear this morning. A spokesperson for Rishi Sunak told hacks at the noon briefing checks on those moving between the two zones cannot happen at the border, under common travel area rules. Irish PM Simon Harris insisted in the parliament in Dublin this afternoon Britain is obliged under an Irish-U.K. agreement to take back U.K.-based asylum applicants entering Ireland.

Not helping: Jacob Rees-Mogg did his best to stir the pot on Twitter.

Meanwhile … the Downing Street spokesperson insisted the government has the tools to track down migrants who appear to have gone AWOL after being earmarked for deportation to Rwanda. A report overnight in the Times suggested otherwise.

Now read this: Andrew Marr has an interesting deep dive in the New Statesman on whether Labour would keep the Rwanda scheme … should it end up working.

NO END TO TROUBLES: Nearly 15 months after the U.K. announced plans for a new investigation into the Omagh bomb atrocity, the independent probe says it’s finally ready to begin – in July. The move mirrors tomorrow’s formal start to Northern Ireland’s new fact-finding commission into other unsolved crimes from the Troubles, the Independent Commission for Reconciliation and Information Recovery.

UNI CREDIT: Labour MP Margaret Hodge and Conservative MP Robert Buckland penned a joint letter to Education Secretary Gillian Keegan about the need to be vigilant over dodgy uni donations. See it here. There’s a writeup from openDemocracy here too.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: A whole load of announcements sprayed out ahead of local elections this week, including … an 80 percent fall in student dependent visa applications in the first quarter of 2024 after the new tougher rules came in (thanks to “robust home secretary action,” as the press release put it) … a 25 percent fall in foreign care workers asking for visas … a new task force to spot overseas hate preachers and prevent them entering the U.K. … new protections for kids facing police strip searches … new powers for local governments to purchase bits of land at actual value rather than imagined post-development value.

What else the government wants to talk about: Support for Moldova in the face of Russian aggression. Europe Minister Nus Ghani met her Moldovan counterpart Carolina Perebinos this morning, amid fears Moldova faces a cyber threat from its Russian neighbor.

What the government doesn’t want to talk about: The number of kids classed as homeless due to living in short-term accommodation was up 15 percent at the end of 2023 compared with the same point in 2022, hitting a record high, according to the latest government figures.

WHAT THE LIB DEMS WANT TO TALK ABOUT: Sewage spills in spa towns based on their data crunching, ahead of polling day. See here. And a local Tories leaflet in Dorset complaining about … their own MPs. So it’s all going well down there. More on Dorset in Playbook PM tomorrow.

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SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS

ALL ITS GLORY: Political number cruncher Ben Walker tweeted some lovely maps showing where council elections are happening this week.

NOT SUITABLE FOR WORK: Here’s a clip of Nick Ferrari whipping his shirt off live on air during an interview with Labour frontbencher Jon Ashworth. Don’t come at me with clickbait complaints.

IS THAT A GOOD USE OF INK? Still hammering on about his slowing of tax increases, Rishi Sunak managed to find a printer somewhere in the world that actually works. See here.

BALD MISINFORMATION: The BBC used a pic of SNP MSP Neil Gray before he went full bald. Clear broadcaster bias.

AROUND THE WORLD

MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will invade Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip even if Hamas agrees to the latest proposal for a cease-fire — my colleague Šejla Ahmatović has more.

Meanwhile in the Hague: The International Court of Justice ruled against issuing emergency orders to stop Germany’s arms sales to Israel, though a final court ruling could take years — via the BBC.

UKRAINE UPDATE: At least four people have been killed and 32 injured in a Russian missile attack on what Ukrainians call the “Harry Potter castle” in the southern Ukrainian port city of Odesa — the Times has further details.

IN AMERICA: Former U.S. President Donald Trump was ordered to pay a $9,000 fine for social media posts and other statements which violated a gag order imposed in his hush money criminal trial — my stateside colleagues have a liveblog with every twist and turn.

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TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.), BBC News at Six and Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) all lead on the sword attack in Hainault.

Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Former Met Inspector Chris Phillips (5 p.m.) … former Foreign Office Minister Alistair Burt (5.35 p.m.).

BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Palestinian Ambassador to the U.K. Husam Zomlot … former YouGov President Peter Kellner … London School of Economics academic Tony Travers.

News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): British Future Director Sunder Katwala (5.45 p.m.) … Iranian and Kurdish Women’s Rights Organization Executive Director Diana Nammi (6.30 p.m.).

The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Met Police Assistant Commissioner Matt Jukes.

Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Tory MP George Eustice (6 p.m.) … Husam Zumlot (6.30 p.m.) … Scottish Greens Co-Leader Patrick Harvey (6.40 p.m.).

Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): `National Crime Agency Head of Education and Partnerships Sean Sutton.

Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Tory MP Jo Gideon … former Labour MP Parmjit Dhanda… Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine … Telegraph Pol Ed Ben Riley-Smith.

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Former Tory MP Jerry Hayes … former Labour adviser Stella Tsantekidou.

TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Jack Surfleet.

REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): The Express’ Asa Bennett and HuffPost’s Kevin Schofield … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Observer’s Sonia Sodha and Onward’s Sebastian Payne.

WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT

MAY BE NEWSWORTHY: Former Prime Minister Theresa May appears at a Chatham House event from 6 p.m.

LIQUOR WITH LAMMY: Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy appears at an IPPR event about foreign affairs from 6.30 p.m.

PRESSING THE FLESH: The Adam Smith Institute is hosting Conservative leadership hopeful Robert Jenrick for a 7 p.m. event at a London pub. Invites needed.

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TOMORROW’S WORLD

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Faith admissions to free schools and guidance for single-sex spaces.

HAPPENING IN SCOTLAND: The vote of no confidence in the Scottish government, but the Greens aren’t backing it so it will fail.

IMPECCABLE TIMING: The work and pensions committee has a hearing on disability employment with campaigners and experts, on the week the government outlined its disability benefit reforms. From 9.30 a.m.

ALSO GOOD TIMING: Supreme Court President Robert Reed and Vice President Patrick Hodge appear at the Lords constitution committee from 10.15 a.m., as the government prepares its first Rwanda deportation flights.

IN THE COMMONS: MPs sit from 11.30 a.m. with Scotland questions, before PMQs, then the remaining stages of the Automated Vehicles Bill.

LOCALS EVE PRIMER: Pollster John Curtice appears at an Institute for Government event on the local elections, from 6.30 p.m.

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: The Debate: Shredded beef, chorizo and olives with chili rice; tandoori salmon with mushroom quinoa, pickled red onion and dill yoghurt; goats cheese, sweet potato and chickpea samosa with olives and capers … Terrace Cafeteria: Pork loin steak with sweet potato wedges, buttered kale and wholegrain mustard café au lait sauce; breaded scampi with tartare sauce and lemon; Quorn and eggplant with mascarpone sauce and oregano quinoa … River Restaurant: Pakora burger with chips and salad; roast pork with all the trimmings; Chermoula grilled hake with chickpea and giant couscous salad, spiced butternut squash and apricots.

TELEING TALES: The UAE-backed RedBird IMI partnership has walked away from buying the Telegraph and Spectator, saying the U.K. government’s legislation to block foreign states from owning newspaper assets in Britain meant the acquisition was “no longer feasible.” The publications now face a fresh auction — the Guardian has a writeup.

SIMPLE QUESTIONS PLAYBOOK PM CAN’T GET ANSWERS TO: When will Rishi Sunak fill his vacant anti-corruption adviser role? … Did Steve Tuckwell tell constituents, filmed signing a petition about fish and chips, that their data would be used for other campaign spam? … When will Boris Johnson start producing his own GB News content?

WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: Polling expert Peter Kellner has a good primer for how to interpret the local elections.

WHAT I’VE BEEN WATCHING: The latest Redfield and Wilton patch report, this one from Redcar, after Playbook PM reported from there just yesterday.

ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On April 30, 1763 MP and journalist John Wilkes was imprisoned in the Tower for London charged with libel. On the same date in 1920, the British government ended military conscription.

MEA CULPA: Former U.K. Ambassador to the U.S. Kim Darroch is no longer chair of Best for Britain, as Playbook described him this morning, although he still sits on the board. Virgin Group chair Peter Norris took over the chairmanship at the start of 2024.

WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Stefan Boscia.

THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporters Noah Keate, Bethany Dawson and Andrew McDonald, and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.