Legend’s big call on epic PL title race … but City gun ‘could be the difference’: State of Play
The Premier League title race is going down to the wire – though Liverpool appear out of the hunt after two losses and two draws in their last five league matches.
Arsenal are top on 80 points with three games to play, one point ahead of Manchester City and five clear of Liverpool – but reigning champions City have a game in hand and remain favourites to seal a remarkable sixth title in seven seasons.
The title is in their hands: if City win all four of their remaining games, they will make history with a fourth consecutive Premier League crown.
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As defender Nathan Ake said: “It’s in our hands so we’re not depending on what they do.
“That’s the difference from last year, we were still depending on what they were doing.
“This season it’s in our hands. The only thing we have to do is focus on the next one. It’s so close but it’s also so far away.
“It’s about what we do now. At the moment it’s going well but we know what we have to do in the end — win four games and we can be champions again.”
City beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 on the weekend, while Arsenal beat Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham 3-2 in a thrilling North London derby.
After the win over Forest, Premier League great Roy Keane declared on Sky Sports: “With that result at the City Ground, I think the title is Manchester City’s now.”
City’s game in hand, however, is a tough one – facing Spurs away just five days before the final day of the season.
And compared to Arsenal, City’s run home is harder. Their opponents have an average position of 9.3 on the ladder, while Arsenal’s opponents have an average position of 10.3.
Arsenal face Bournemouth (home), Man Utd (away), and Everton (home) in their final matches – three teams they beat in the reverse fixtures earlier this season.
By comparison, City face Wolves (h), Fulham (a), Spurs (a), and West Ham (h) – and while they beat three of those teams in the reverse fixtures, Postecoglou’s Tottenham claimed a 3-3 draw at the Etihad Stadium earlier this season.
The Australian manager and his Spurs side look the most likely team to trouble City in their unprecedented title bid, given Spurs are fifth and desperately hunting a top-four finish and Champions League qualification.
Not that Arsenal will be hoping for a favour from their bitter North London rivals in their hunt for a first league crown in two decades.
“I don’t want to focus on that. I just want to focus on the team, on us, and focus on next Saturday against Bournemouth,” Gunners goalkeeper David Raya said.
“We cannot focus on other teams because you lose your focus on yourself and you don’t start playing the same way.
“I like challenges and I don’t feel under pressure. It’s an opportunity to show what you are capable of. I’m really enjoying this challenge.”
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Last year, Arsenal and City went toe-to-toe before the Gunners slipped up in the closing stages of the run home, with three-straight draws in April 2023 (including twice throwing away two-goal leads) effectively ending their challenge.
This time around, Mikel Arteta’s side seem a different force.
As BBC’s Phil McNulty wrote of their win over Spurs: “The Gunners might have cracked last season with the volume turned up to maximum on this most hostile territory but not this time.”
Manchester United legend Gary Neville said on his Sky Sports podcast: “It’s a far better Arsenal team than last season, a far bigger mentality, a stronger mentality.
“People will point towards William Saliba [returning] and I will as well, but it’s more than that.
“There is a focus and discipline and attention to detail on the pitch in their defensive work – and six clean sheets on the bounce is a hell of an achievement in any season.
“They maybe had a bit of a wobble, the Villa game and obviously in the Champions League, but that can happen.
“They’ve got back on the bike and demonstrated that they have moved forward as a club, moved forward as a coaching team, moved forward as a group of players and are nowhere near the position they were in last season.”
While Tottenham are arguably the hardest remaining match for City, Arsenal’s hardest remaining fixture appears to be Manchester United.
The Red Devils currently sit sixth amid a turbulent season marred by inconsistent form and a poor attack – 16th placed Brentford have scored as many goals this season as Erik Ten Hag’s side.
While United have won just once in their last five games, they still remain a dangerous opponent for high-flying Arsenal.
“You never know what is going to happen at Old Trafford and Old Trafford can be a graveyard for teams,” Neville said.
“Even with the way Manchester United are at the moment, you have to regard that as a massive match and a big game.
“Teams have won at Old Trafford that have been in the bottom half of the table, but teams in the top half of the table have gone there and struggled.”
He added that despite the difficulty of the fixture, he believes Arsenal will win all their remaining matches.
Neville said: “You can never underestimate a game at Old Trafford … [but] I think they will achieve a 100 per cent record. The one doubt is the Old Trafford game.”
But even a 100 per cent win record might not be enough for Arsenal, if City win their own remaining matches.
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Pep Guardiola’s champion side have a habit of ramping up in the closing stages of the season and churning out wins, and they’ve done so again this year, with the team going 31 games unbeaten in all competitions and 19 in the league.
And for all of Arsenal’s improvements this season, City may still hold a trump card: the return of Erling Haaland from injury, having missed the win over Brighton in midweek.
Haaland came off the bench to score the second goal against Nottingham Forest, a crucial strike that sealed victory despite City struggling for large parts of the match.
The Norwegian talisman now has 21 goals and five assists in 27 league matches, putting him on top in the golden boot race – despite also missing five games in December-January with injury.
He has been criticised at times this season for his build-up play, including when Roy Keane labelled his skills as “League Two level” after the draw with Arsenal. But there’s no doubting his scoring ability – and when City aren’t at their best, his goals are an invaluable boon in their ability to scrape out results.
Keane even hilariously joked after the Forest game that: “He was very much like a Championship player, he has improved a lot!”
Keane added on Sky Sports: “In terms of a goalscorer he is absolutely amazing, there’s no doubting his quality in terms of his finishing.”
Former England winger Chris Waddle said that scoring ability could be the difference in the title race.
“Haaland is a goalscorer, simple as that,” said the ex-Spurs and Newcastle star on BBC Radio 5 Live.
“He isn’t known for his link-up play, dribbling or skills – he is a goalscorer and that is what he is good at.
“It was a good finish and he passed it into the bottom corner – with him coming back he will probably be the difference.”