Lille vs Aston Villa betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Europa Conference League
1pt Lille to win in 90 minutes at 7/5 (General)
1pt Benjamin Andre to be shown a card at 3/1 (General)
Aston Villa remain favourites to lift the Europa Conference League trophy under European knockout specialist Unai Emery but their first-leg win over Lille (xG: 1.08-1.48) was anything but convincing.
The Ligue 1 underdogs registered more shots on target, seven to four, forced Emi Martinez into a number of vital saves and had a goal narrowly chalked out for offside before eventually, and deservedly, pulling one back late on after Villa had led 2-0.
Of course, Emery's side have since showed what a force to be reckoned with they are this season by stunning Arsenal at Emirates Stadium in the Premier League on Sunday, boosting Villa's own top-four hopes in the process.
It's been an up and down 2024 so far for Villa, highs such as the win over the Gunners mixed with lows like a 4-0 home thumping at the hands of Tottenham - so the main question is: Which Villa will show up on Thursday night?
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What are the best bets?
Lille, like Villa, sit fourth in their domestic league and also boast Champions League hopes for next season. They also possess the best home record - W10 D3 L1 - in the French top flight and that improves to W16 D4 L1 in all competitions.
Put simply, Paulo Fonseca's side are a formidable prospect in front of their own fans. They have not lost at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy since September and have conceded only 11 goals in 21 games there all season.
Villa, then, could be made to rue conceding that late goal in the initial fixture although, of course, the Midlanders need only a draw to progress.
I can't get past the hosts' home record here and regardless of which team progresses overall, I think LILLE TO WIN (in 90 minutes) is a very attractive price at 7/5 - due both to their form at home but also how impressive they were in the first leg.
Obviously, it's a must-win game for the French side and there's a chance this could lead to some over-aggression on their part, particularly should things begin to go against them.
The 3/1 on BENJAMIN ANDRE TO BE SHOWN A CARD appeals as a result. The 33-year-old defensive midfielder ranks in Ligue 1's top six players for both tackles and fouls per game, plus yellow cards.
He's been booked five times in his past 11 league matches and with Villa boasting plenty of speed in counter-attacking situations it would be unsurprising to see the veteran cautioned for some sort of tactical foul here.
BuildABet @66/1
- Lille to win (in 90 minutes)
- Andre to be shown a card
- Bailey 1+ offsides
- Martinez 5+ saves
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Leon Bailey is the kind of player who likes to play on the shoulder of defenders and has been caught offside seven times in his past nine games. Lille forced Emi Martinez into six saves in the first leg and they have to go for it here.
Team news
Lille could be without winger Edon Zhegrova after he suffered an ankle injury in the first leg. Ex-Manchester United youngster Angel Gomes returned from injury as a substitute in that game and could be restored to the starting XI by boss Paulo Fonseca.
Samuel Umtiti, Andrej Ilic and Rafael Fernandes all remain out injured for the hosts.
Douglas Luiz missed Villa's win over Arsenal through suspension but is likely to come straight back in. He's one of five Villans - along with John McGinn, Moussa Diaby, Youri Tielemans and Matty Cash - a booking away from missing a possible semi-final.
Leon Bailey should also return to the line-up in after scoring Villa's opener against the Gunners off the bench. Nicolo Zaniolo should recover from a knock but Jacob Ramsey, Boubacar Kamara, Emi Buendia and Tyrone Mings remain out longer-term.
Predicted line-ups
Lille: Chevalier; Ismaily, Diakité, Yoro, Tiago Santos; André, Bentaleb; Gudmundsson, Angel Gomes, Yazici; David.
Villa: Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Pau Torres, Digne; Luiz, Tielemans; Bailey, Rogers, McGinn; Watkins.
Odds correct at 1230 BST (17/04/24)
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