Will the Diamondbacks Light Up Lance Lynn Again?

The last time the Diamondbacks faced Lance Lynn was in game three of the National League Division Series last year against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Famously, the D-backs took him deep four times in a record setting third inning, providing the margin of victory in a 4-2 series clincher. They get another shot at Lynn at 4:45 P.M. MST Monday night when the D-backs face the Cardinals.

Pitching Matchup

Lynn has since returned to the club that drafted him in 2008 and where he spent the first six years of his career. He's made four starts for the Cardinals this year with a 1-0 record, and a nifty 2.18 ERA. That might be a little misleading however. In 20.2 innings the homer-prone Lynn has given up four long balls, along with seven walks and 19 strikeouts. That adds up to a 4.90 FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching.

Of course Lynn has been a fierce competitor throughout his major league career. He usually pitches with emotion and is very demonstrative. If he gets on a roll expect him to be swashbuckling around the mound and punctuating strikeouts with fist pumps and shouts as if last October never happened.

The D-backs counter with Brandon Pfaadt. Last year's postseason hero has been inconsistent in 2024. Through four starts he has a 1-1 record with a 5.32 ERA and a 4.09 FIP. His strikeout to walk ratio in 23.2 innings is a stellar 23/3. But he too has been bit by the long ball, allowing four homers in his last three starts. One of those starts was April 12th against the Cardinals at Chase Field when he gave up six runs in six innings on seven hits including two homers.

The Key for Pfaadt will be to avoid location mistakes in the middle of the plate, especially with the Sweeper. While the pitch generates plenty of swing and miss (37.3%), he's tended to hang it in the middle of the plate where it's been hit hard.

One thing that might help both pitchers keep the ball in the yard tonight is the fact that there will be a stiff 12 MPH wind blowing in from left field. Game time temperatures are expected to be in the mid to high 60's, with partly cloudy skies.

LINEUPS

Blaze Alexander is out of the lineup today. He was removed from the game yesterday for precautionary reasons due to a right hamstring cramp. We are still awaiting further updates as to his status going forward beyond today. Torey Lovullo is sticking with the slumping Corbin Carroll in the second spot in the order for now. He's batting .216 with a .603 OPS so far this season.

RECORDS, STANDINGS, AND RUN DIFFERENTIALS

Since the D-backs beat the Cardinals two out of three times at Chase Field a little over a week ago, the Cardinals have gone 2-4 and were just swept at home by the Milwaukee Brewers. They are 9-13 residing in last place in the NL Central, which is where they ended up last year. The Diamondbacks are 11-12, 1.5 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West and two games out of the Wild Card.

Arizona ranks 2nd in the NL in runs scored with 5.70 per game. They rank 7th in the league in runs allowed with 4.48. Distribution has been an issue however. They won 16-1 on opening day against the Rockies, and 17-1 against the Giants this past Friday. Those two games have run their season run differential to +28 on the year. However in their other 21 games they have a -3 run differential. They are 2-4 in one run games.

While the Cardinals pitching has been above average, allowing 4.32 runs per game, they have a -19 run differential. That is because St. Louis ranks dead last in the NL in runs scored per game with 3.45. Notably, Paul Goldschmidt is still slumping, going just 3-25, or .120 over his last seven games. His season line is .179/.279/.218 with just one homer for his lone extra base hit of the season. That homer came on opening day.