With the 2024 NFL draft now in the rearview mirror, it’s time we look at how it shook up the fantasy landscape. I’ll be joined by Denny Carter who will handle the wide receivers and tight ends, while I’ll take the quarterbacks and running backs impacted by this year’s draft picks.
Some veteran players could be on thin ice with new young and shiny rookies coming to town. Spoiler Alert: I do not have Kyren Williams in this article as I refuse to write his death sentence (in fantasy football) because Rams head coach Sean McVay needed to get him a solid backup. Any who, let’s get to it, fantasy draft season will be here before we know it.
STOCK UP
Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
I believe Richardson got the biggest boost out of any quarterback this past weekend at the NFL Draft. With Michael Pittman and Josh Downs secured, the Colts added the dynamic receiver from Texas, Adonai Mitchell in the second round to help round out (what should be) the starting receiving group. Mitchell is a player who can beat defensive backs over top, intermediate and can make plays in the short game. His 4.33-second, 40-yard dash speed at 6-2, 205 pounds is what the Colts needed to bring to this offense at wide receiver. With a middling offensive line in 2023, the Colts added Pittsburgh tackle Matt Goncalves and Wisconsin Center Tanor Bortolini. Both guys could plug and play at their respective positions. Bortolini, who graded out as Emory Hunt’s number one center in the Football Gameplan Draft Guide, could slide out to guard with Ryan Kelly at center. Richardson will reap the benefits of the Colts’ good draft and challenge to be the top quarterback in fantasy this season.
Joe Mixon, RB, Texans
As expected, Mixon escaped any real threat to his lead role and will head into 2024 as the Texans’ top dog in the backfield. The team drafted the talented Jawhar Jordan out of Louisville in the sixth round, but he’s more of a threat to Dameon Pierce than anything. Offensive tackle Blake Fisher (Notre Dame) was brought in during the second round to help bolster the line. After a RB6 finish with the Bengals in 2023, Mixon will be in a similar situation with Houston as far as talent goes. In fact, he could see lighter boxes with Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell lining up out wide. Expect another successful season for the former Bengal.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs
It’s not surprising that the Chiefs didn’t draft a running back to compete for touches with Pacheco. It was shocking however, to see them not add a back in the draft to challenge Clyde Edwards-Helaire. With that being said, it should be another year of smooth sailing for Pacheco who has been as dependable as can be. He’s coming off a season in which he averaged 15.3 fantasy PPG, good for RB14 and should be drafted as such (perhaps a bit higher) in 2024. The best thing about the Chiefs’ running back situation, because it’s similar to last season’s, you know exactly how the touches will be divided. It’s possible the Chiefs bring back Jerick McKinnon at some point, but for now, Pacheco looks like a man who can crack 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career.
Zamir White, RB, Raiders
You want to talk about a post-draft winner? White fits the bill. The Raiders went tight end, guard and tackle in the first three rounds of the draft further solidifying the fact that they want to focus on running the ball. They drafted New Hampshire running back Dylan Laube who right now at best fits as a catch passer and return man. In 2023 White was RB9 from the time he became the starter (Week 15) until the end of the season. With Alexander Mattison as his primary backup, White should be in line to handle most of the touches in the Raiders backfield. White will be a popular zero-RB option for fantasy managers during the 2024 draft season.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Falcons
Atlanta going rogue and taking Michael Penix in the first round — instead of, say, an elite wideout option like Rome Odunze — ensures Mooney will have a solid role in what should be a pass-first Falcons offense this season.
Mooney, even if he’s a distant WR2 to Drake London, looks like the team’s best (only) downfield threat. Here’s to hoping Kirk Cousins is fully recovered from his Achilles injury and able to get the ball downfield.
Jameson Williams, WR, Lions
It took a while, but it seems the Lions are ready to go in on Williams as a WR2 option in 2024. Detroit did not draft a receiver and lost Josh Reynolds in free agency. Williams, among the fastest guys in football, could have a real shot at a full complement of routes in 2024.
While his route numbers spiked last December and January, Williams showed little to suggest he’s a true target-commanding force in a passing attack dominated by short-area target gobblers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam Laporta. Williams was targeted on a meager 15.2 percent of his pass routes last season. Like most downfield threats, he’ll profile as a boom-bust weekly option in fantasy.
Rashid Shaheed, WR, Saints
The Saints for some reason did not bolster their thin receiver room in the draft, leaving Shaheed as a clear beneficiary. Shaheed sets up as the team’s No. 2 wideout behind Chris Olave headed into the 2024 season.
Shaheed’s 475 receiving yards on targets of at least 20 yards downfield ranked fifth among all receivers in 2023, and Pro Football Focus graded him as the league’s best downfield pass catcher. A few more intermediate looks from Derek Carr in 2024 and Shaheed could easily be a plug-and-play option in 12-team formats.
STOCK DOWN
Derek Carr, QB, Saints
While the Saints made it a priority to beef up their line by drafting Oregon State tackle Taliese Fuaga, there is a chance the (starting) offense will look relatively the same personnel-wise. Carr may be on a short leash after an up-and-down first season as the Saints’ quarterback.
On the surface, the team drafted South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler in the fifth round to compete with Jake Haener for the backup role. What I see is an opportunity for Rattler to eventually become the starter if the Saints once again struggle. Many respect Rattler’s game and the fans could be calling for him if Carr doesn’t come out guns blazing. Should Carr hold his water, he’ll need another pass catcher to step up and be consistent besides Chris Olave.
Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers
I think we’d suspected that the Panthers would draft a running back, but they didn’t just draft one, they were the first to do so. Jonathon Brooks came off the board first amongst backs as the 14th pick in the second round.
He’s regarded by most as the top running back in the 2024 draft class and in due time will probably be the team’s lead back. Panthers GM Dan Morgan stated recently that the staff still “thinks highly” of Sanders. What adds to the confusion is that Hubbard outplayed Sanders in 2023. At some point whenever Brooks is ready to go, we could be looking at an ugly three-headed committee this season. Proceed with caution this summer with any Panthers running back in redraft leagues.
Gus Edwards and J.K Dobbins, RB, Chargers
This running back room was already crowded enough with Isaiah Spiller lurking, but why would I have it here? I don’t want people to breeze over the fact that the Chargers selected Kimani Vidal out of Troy in the sixth round.
The former Sun Belt offensive player of the year ran for 1,661 yards and 14 touchdowns as a senior and had 92 receptions in his career. He’s an every-down back who runs smoothly through his cuts and has tight balance. He’s good enough to challenge for touches on a Chargers team that wants to run the ball. It’s not like Vidal is competing with top-level NFL running backs either. It’ll be an uphill battle to climb and Edwards and Dobbins will get the first cracks, but I’d keep an eye out on the stout rookie.
James Conner, RB, Cardinals
Conner was one of the best values in fantasy last season ending as the RB13 on a PPG basis. After being drafted in the middle rounds last season, it was looking like he’d get a slight bump with how he performed last season. The depth chart was extremely light behind Conner and the Cardinals responded by drafting Trey Benson out of Florida State in the third round.
At the very least, Conner needed a more reliable backup behind him, at the most Benson could play himself into a real role that stings Conner’s fantasy value. The best thing Conner can do is stay healthy and play like he did in 2023, because he as a former third-round pick himself knows what it’s like when a young back gets an opportunity.
DJ Moore, WR, Bears
Moore should still function as Chicago’s No. 1 wideout, but the addition of Rome Odunze (and Keenan Allen) means Moore’s death grip on the team’s air yards and targets will most definitely loosen in 2024.
That could be counteracted by a Bears offense that goes ultra pass heavy with Caleb Williams under center. It’s hard to see Moore as the same fantasy producer he was in 2023 in this new iteration of the Bears offense.
Trey Palmer, WR, Bucs
Palmer flashed as a rookie in the Tampa offense, serving as an explosive WR3 option behind Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The Bucs taking Jalen McMillan out of Washington with the 92nd pick in the draft sets up Palmer for a fierce competition for WR3 duties in 2024.
Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs
Rice’s various and serious legal issues aside, Kansas City trading up to take Xavier Worthy is less-than-great news for Rice’s 2024 fantasy prospects.
Worthy has proven a target commander. He also happens to be the fastest man in football. Though Rice will remain a reliable intermediate target, his solid 24.2 percent targets per route run rate will likely take a considerable dip if Worthy gets a full complement of routes in Patrick Mahomes’ offense. The good news for Rice: He was wildly efficient in his rookie season. He can do a lot with a little.
Michael Mayer, TE, Raiders
Perhaps no one took a bigger hit than Mayer. The Raiders took ultra-productive Georgia TE Brock Bowers in the first round to give Garnder Minshew (or Aidan O’Connell) another viable target besides Davante Adams.
Mayer’s routes and targets saw a decent uptick in the 2023 season’s final month and a half. That’s all out the door now with Bowers likely to take on the team’s pass-catching tight end role. Mayer could be left to battle in the trenches, so unless you play in a point per block (PPB) format, he’s completely off the fantasy radar in traditional formats.
Zach Ertz, TE, Commanders
It wouldn’t stun me if Ertz functioned as Washington’s top pass-catching tight end despite the team taking Ben Sinnott in the 2024 NFL Draft. But the addition of Sinnott can’t be totally ignored.
Jayden Daniels as Washington’s QB probably means the team will be among the run heaviest offenses in the NFL this season. If Sinnott and Ertz end up splitting tight end routes and targets, neither will be useful in fantasy leagues.