The 2022 Open Championship at St. Andrews is right around the corner, giving us another chance to evaluate the odds board.
Last week, I shared Jordan Spieth and Cameron Smith as my two favorite outright bets among the favorites. Now, we turn our attention to the long shots and the players with heavy odds who could result in a big payout.
For definition purposes, I’m considering players who are 50/1 or higher on the BetMGM odds board. Some notable names that fit that definition as of Wednesday were Daniel Berger (50/1), Tony Finau (50/1), along with former major winners Sergio Garcia (66/1) and Adam Scott (80/1).
However, I’ve settled on the following two players that provide bettors the best value. So, without further delay, here are my best long-shot bets for the Open Championship.
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Justin Rose (50/1)
The 2013 U.S. Open champion appears to be rounding into form at just the right time for a run at the Claret Jug.
Over his last four starts, Rose has only a single missed cut and has posted three finishes of 37th or better. Plus, Rose is a player who appears to relish the Open Championship, evidenced by his record at his “home” major. Across his last seven starts at The Open, Rose owns five finishes of 23rd or better, including two top-10 finishes.
One such top-10 finish came at the 2015 Open Championship, which was played at the Old Course. That year, Rose finished in a tie for sixth, only four shots behind the group of three that made the playoff.
Rose’s case is further supported by a few key underlying metrics. Over his last 12 rounds, he’s 18th on tour in strokes-gained: total and ranks 14th on tour in SG: putting.
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For those reasons, I believe Rose has a higher win equity than his odds suggest and I’m happy to play him to 45/1.
Max Homa (80/1)
Homa has little experience at the Open Championship but is enjoying a superb 2022 campaign.
Since February, Homa has played in 10 events. He’s made the cut in all and has posted eight top-25 finishes. In just his last five events on tour, he has a win, two top-10s and four top-25s.
Homa excels when it’s easy to hit the fairways. Over his last 12 qualifying rounds, he’s 12th on tour in SG: ball striking, 18th on tour in SG: total and 22nd in SG: approach. Homa also ranks 28th in SG: putting and 11th in birdies or better gained on the field.
Furthermore, Homa ranks 13th in SG: par 4s in those 12 rounds featuring easy-to-hit fairways. Given all but four holes at the Old Course feature that type of setup, I expect Homa will be able to score at a quicker rate than the field. Add in that he ranks 32nd in bogey avoidance over that span and I’m even more encouraged by Homa.
I think 80/1 is an absolute steal and I would play Homa down to 60/1.